House prices

[Twiglets1]

Hi Guys, we got to the end of the last thread so need another one on this controversial topic!

And to respond to @CrashyTime I don't say "demand is strong" over and over again. In fact, I rarely comment on demand at all. My posts are more focussed on house prices and interest rates/mortgage rates.

And I don't deny economic "reality", I just don't exaggerate how bad the house price correction is likely to be. I have a running bet with @XVGN that property prices generally will fall about 5% in 2023 and another 5% in 2024 so I do believe prices are falling in most areas. Just nothing like the 30-35% crash predicted by some!

I think that the BBC should just come clean on why they are hiding the data from the people they are supposed to serve.

Funnily enough, I don't think there is any conspiracy here - trying to prevent VI losing money - just incompetence. They're happy to report puff pieces from RM, Halifax and Nationwide even when their data is negative. I suspect that ONS and BBC have agreed to withhold the data on the BBC because of the warnings about data quality owing to the volumes being considerably lower. THAT is probably the story.

Yes, extremely worrying that ordinary people could buy housing cheaper and with less debt. It still amazes me that the public didn`t quite get how they were being ripped off during the property Ponzi years.

Nah, they are part of the machine that encourages debt and consumption (breed, borrow, consume) it is all obvious, hiding in plain sight, that is how they operate.

RICS monthly survey. Results vary significantly by region, but watch out in the SW.

"David Hickman, FRICS, , [email protected], South Devon - Difficult to say if it is the time of year, interest rates or contracting economy and world conflicts but the market has died and values falling. Developers have cut back and corporates aren’t waiting, they are shedding staff and surveyors too and expect branch closures too. 2007 all over again!"

https://www.rics.org/news-insights/market-surveys/uk-residential-market-survey

Regional variations as you say. The headline point chosen by the authors of the survey you posted is that "outlook for sales market activity continues to improve gradually" because:

• Three and twelve-month sales expectations pick-up for a second consecutive month

• Buyer enquiries indicator records the least downbeat reading since April 2022

• House price declines continue to moderate at the national level, with respondents now anticipating a flat trend over the year ahead

House "values" falling significantly will be one of the best things to happen to UK society in at least 30 years IMO.

Hard to argue with this really. Of course cheaper houses are better for everyone - except maybe lending institutions.
The problem is that downturns in the market are usually accompanied by recession. People loose jobs and homes, not something to look forward to.

I suspect a lot less people than previously will lose homes, some might default on their house debt intentionally because they see that there is no longer value in paying it off, but I`m sure the banks and the government will have a plan to just increase the debt re-payment time or freeze the interest rate if people are genuinely in financial distress? So far though we have demand for property falling hard while the economy seems to still be chugging along, although lately the job losses are starting to tick up (according to the Redundancy thread on HPC anyway)

The BBC does not consider the ONS House Price Index to be of sufficient urgency, interest or importance to report for the last 3 months. Hannah Waddingham's face won that battle last week!

"We’re sorry to learn of your unhappiness with the recent coverage given to the ONS House Price Index.

Choosing the stories to include on our website is a subjective matter and one that we know not everyone will feel we get right on every occasion.

Factors such as whether it is news that has just come in and needs immediate coverage, how unusual the story is and how much national interest there is in the subject matter will all play a part in deciding the level of coverage and where it falls on the site.

Essentially this is a judgement call rather than an exact science, but the team at the BBC News website appreciate the feedback when readers feel a story might have been overlooked or neglected."

What tools do I need to be using to tell how much to be paying on a house? Dh has given me the OK to go and look at a house. It has been on the market quite a while and reduced. They've now had new photos and relisted, so figure not getting viewings.

I would share a link but I don't want future mn trolls knowing where I live!

It's on at £400,000 at the moment, may have been on even as high as £475,000 when it was first listed but could have been £425,000 I can't remember. I suspect it should be £375,000 as it is a little shabby but not a complete doer upper.

lol at the Mumsnet trolls comment, don’t blame you for not providing a link 😂

I would always look on Rightmove sold properties in your area to see what price comparable properties actually sold for. Think they are showing properties sold up to November now.

In a way it’s irrelevant whether it was once listed at 475k or 425k it’s what it’s worth to you now that’s important, compared to other properties on the market in your area for around 400k. If you think it’s only worth 375k after viewing it then only offer 375k. The sellers should hopefully be open to accepting a lower price if they have been struggling to sell it for a while.

Feel free to rummage in my tool box.

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/property/4935470-tools-for-house-buyers

I think rather than a significant house price correction, what you will get is house price stagnation. If you purchased for 500 last year, expect around 500 in 3-4 years time. With 10% inflation each year, that, in effect, results in a 30-ish% drop in prices.

Can`t see stagnation TBH, the demand and sales volumes have dropped so much that there must now be so much pent up demand to sell, probate/must move for work etc. that price drops are inevitable. The longer rates stay up, and the more job losses that occur (they are starting to be noticeable now) makes a price crash more likely.

https://www.propertylog.net/

I think the gvt will do whatever they can to keep house prices at least stagnant if not buoyant. They know the consequences. Ironically, this high inflation is extremely good for those with fixed mortgages…the value of the debt is being destroyed. Although I appreciate that’s not most.

The value of the house is also being destroyed as the cost of borrowing rises, and not everyone will be getting meaningful pay rises to cover their debt payments fixed or otherwise, and depending when they bought and how much they paid they could easily end up with negative equity or never getting back what they paid.

What is the reasoning behind emailing the EA with an offer? It's 9 years since I bought but I've always rung.

Unless people are unable to maintain their finance, in all likelyhood negative equity just means a market slowdown because people will stop selling. It’s only an issue where people are too overexposed. That may well be a goodly number of people, I guess we will see. But I think the situation will stabilise around a stagnant market. The government knows that a crash would be a political and social disaster, and so will do everything they can to keep prices up as much as possible.

Two-fold I guess. It creates separation between you and the EA so you will not succumb to their negotiating tactics. Your email is a best and final offer not subject to negotiation.

Secondly, it allows you to compile evidence of your worthiness. You can add details of your funds, your situation, your conveyancer, etc. My friend on YT has an email template you can look up.

Actually, a third is evidence that you submitted an offer.

Oh, new username, I wondered what happened to the 6% mortgage thread update. Thank you for new thread.

I came to the property section to start a thread to ask what people think would happen to mortgage rates should a labour gov get in. I have never lived here with a Conservative to Labour Switch; just the other way round.

Anyway, I will still start that thread as I need comments specifically focused on just that: mortgage rates and change in gov.

It's hardly surprising that prices are falling especially after the insane price rises that 20-22 bought.

Prices were already ludicrous before COVID hit and the round where I live it just went nuts!

Problem is even a readjustment to 2020 prices will be painful.

Quite. A 25% fall would only remove the Covid froth. I'm not expecting a fall that big but it would be entirely justified economically.

I agree, most areas in England are down 10% and more.
House prices in England are certainly heading downwards and I would still say they still have a long way to go before they reach the bottom.

If you look at the chart I just posted there are some nice juicy monthly drops in there. As we head into 2024 a recession is now imminent and it also looks like we are heading into another Financial Crisis starting with the banks again but on a much bigger scale than we saw in 2008.

Over 2024-2025 if I was a betting man I would expect to see some real juicy drops in house prices.

"The government knows that a crash would be a political and social disaster, and so will do everything they can to keep prices up as much as possible."

With BOE raising rates at the fastest pace in 40 years what do you think the government can do? The social disaster is people needing 30 years worth of debt for a basic house, that obviously isn`t sustainable with inflation back in the picture.