House prices

[Twiglets1]

Hi Guys, we got to the end of the last thread so need another one on this controversial topic!

And to respond to @CrashyTime I don't say "demand is strong" over and over again. In fact, I rarely comment on demand at all. My posts are more focussed on house prices and interest rates/mortgage rates.

And I don't deny economic "reality", I just don't exaggerate how bad the house price correction is likely to be. I have a running bet with @XVGN that property prices generally will fall about 5% in 2023 and another 5% in 2024 so I do believe prices are falling in most areas. Just nothing like the 30-35% crash predicted by some!

Yes @happinessischocolate nobody searches on that basis - it’s with a narrower price band (particularly at the lower end of prices that you chose to illustrate), and usually focused on a particular town, to be near the station or town centre or particular school or facility.

I’ve recently sold my house at 20% more than one of those sites would tell you it’s worth, within a month, with three offers on the table… precisely because it was the only option at that price level for someone wanting what it offered - decent sized multiple bedrooms, parking, views, near station, well maintained, possibility of adding value but not essential. It was also for 20% more than local agents priced it at. In any one location it’s not something that tracking/logging/data driven sites can always account for - because there’s always more than one market for more than one type of buyer.

From google most school catchments are 1-2 miles, so yes if you're going to restrict your search to a 2 mile radius and compete with similar buyers with the same age children then you're going to struggle.

Majority of households do not have school age children, plus if your dc are over 11 you can move out of the catchment. So the majority are not confined to searching a 2 mile radius.

The company I work for employs approx 250 people, 40% live 10 miles or further away which is a 30 minutes car drive, some live 30 miles away which is an hour drive each way. Some even have a 45 minute ferry crossing each way every day. So their search criteria when buying a property was obviously broader than my "within 5 miles"

The majority of people live in an average house on an average street, so either they fell in love with that average house or they settled for what they could get.

So as I said, there's 100s of other properties, maybe not in your 2 mile catchment, but most buyers don't care about that.

You’re stating things as fact when it’s just not how it works. In my case I decided on a particular town, then needed a house within that town which was close to the station, easy for my children to get to their dad’s within walking distance, and an easy commute to school. I then wanted a period property that had been very well renovated to my taste, as I’m not interested in renovation, and wanted a house that worked for teenagers and for me to wfh. I can say honestly that the house I ended up buying is the only one within 6 months of looking that meets all my criteria.

Other people will have their own versions of the above.

Having just had an offer accepted I can say I agree. Only one property within a large search area matched our needs/likes, within our budget. We we're able to get some money off the asking price but only about 2%. There isn't much on the market right now and some properties are flying if done up well and priced right. Ours went for over asking within days of listing for example. Some are sitting around a bit if overpriced or needing extensive work. The one we've brought was a bit over priced, but not by much. I think we maybe have slightly over paid, but it's neither here nor there as we can afford it and will stay for a very long time in this house. You can only buy for what the seller will sell for as you said.

A 3k slip in values on average prices this month. That's a lot more for anyone with an ordinary 3/4 bed house in the south. Just at the same time as Rightmove report loads of extra property going on the market ! I can't see how prices can do anything other than adjust downwards now for this year :(

https://news.sky.com/story/house-prices-fall-for-first-time-in-six-months-13108172

Widely reported in mainstream media that house prices fell in March for the first time in 6 months.

As reported in the Guardian for example, House prices fell by 1%, or £2,908, in March compared with February, according to Halifax’s house price index. The average property now costs £288,430. Compared with the same month last year, property prices were up 0.3%.

The Halifax index showed similar trends to that reported by Nationwide, which said this week that the average price of a home fell 0.2% from February to March, to £261,142, after a seasonal adjustment to the figures.

Kim Kinnaird, the director of Halifax mortgages, said the market had shown “surprising resilience” despite higher borrowing costs. She said that prices had not changed much over the past couple of years and were still almost £50,000 above pre-pandemic levels but added that, with only a modest improvement in affordability on the horizon, “this will likely limit the scope for significant house price increases this year”.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/apr/05/uk-house-prices-fall-for-first-time-in-six-months-amid-more-costly-mortgages

We are usually seeing a spring bounce at this time of year, looks to be going the other way.

To me, the word that best sums up the housing market now and over the last couple of years is stagnant.

Can't see that changing until the base rate starts coming down and fixed rate mortgage rates decrease.

I know that it's impossible to say, but what do people think house prices will be like this time next year?
We're looking to sell but can easily hold on until early 2025.

Totally agree - again looking locally I’m continuing to see decent houses marketed at reasonable asking prices being snapped up within the first month. Those that are over-ambitious sit stagnant for months and months - even if they drop the price. Those that don’t go under offer quickly look like they need to then significantly lower the price before getting traction.

I think house prices will be similar in a year's time to how they are today. They may go up slightly after mortgage rates come down but it won't be that significant because mortgage rates won't come down enough to make much difference. People in expensive areas will continue to struggle with affordability.

Remember that if you wait a year in the hope of your property increasing in price, the house you buy would likely also have increased in price. If you are moving to a more expensive property, it's better to buy while prices are lower even if that means accepting a low offer on your property.

We don't need to buy, we're already renovating.

New house will probably be ready between September - December (but not totally decorated). I'm wondering if we should put it on the market as soon as we're ready to move, when the garden will look rubbish, or if it's worth waiting for next Spring.

I think it's ok to try to sell in the Autumn as gardens don't look too bad at that time of year but if the new house isn't ready until winter, probably better to leave it until next Spring.

Prices might be a little lower than they are now, but probably not by much. Hopefully by then interest rates should be a bit more favourable.

I would predict very little change in house prices in our area. I was watching them for a good long while after the interest rates rose and honestly barely any change in prices. Maybe like 10k cheaper on a house costing 400k+. So barely a change really.

What I have noticed is that those needing work just hang around and don't sell. People aren't risking expensive building work right now.

Is anyone else buying/selling and amazed st the optimistic pricing?

As a seller i look at my competition as a starting point

Agree with this. We are experiencing a correction and it’s taking the form of stagnation for a while, to let house prices drop relative to earnings. Unlikely (but not impossible) there’ll be either a crash or an increase in the next year or two

I'm not buying or selling but keep an eye on the market in several areas. It's area dependent but, yes, ridiculously optimistic pricing compared to what the market is willing to pay. This has been the case over 18 months, since market peak. I've seen a lot of properties being slowly reduced, but not by enough and still not selling and also lots being taken off the market. Some of them have now come back on this Spring with a small reduction. They are still not selling. I've seen several comments from posters here that they are happy to take a reduction on their property but the ones in the price bracket above that they want to buy are not being reduced so they can't afford to do this. Of course, some of these will need to be reduced at some point.

Interestingly I’ve seen a few where they have been withdrawn after not selling for ages, then come back on as “new” with an inflated price.

presumably building in the fact everyone is looking for 10% off asking at the moment

It's impossible to know exactly what will happen in that 6 month period. I expect prices to continue to fall on average this year but not necessarily by a huge amount (area/ type of property dependent). If, however, job losses ramp up more (they are already up considerably) and we have a severe recession, the market will fall more as a result. This is likely imo.

That might be their logic but I think it's delusional.
If I were looking to buy, I wouldn't even bother to view a massively over priced property. Again, I've seen similar comments from potential buyers on here.

We have just sold for £10k under asking price. We were expecting that and happy with that offer

House across the road just gone on the market at £25k more than ours

It slightly smaller and the garden is half the size of ours

It wont sell. It will be sitting there for months. There's another one unsold at the same price

They're obviously deluded

It is surprising to me that so many sellers seem to take no notice of what is selling or not selling around them.

Selling houses 101 is surely to do some basic market research yourself not just trust the EA to "tell you" what to list at. The people across the road from you only had to look on Rightmove to see what you were listing at, and not exceed that, especially if slightly smaller.

It's a psychology I can't quite get my head around, but congratulations on selling yours, anyway.

@Twiglets1

Thanks. We had done plenty of research and we sold really quickly with a few offers.

Actually our EA presented a document listing all the properties for sale or recently sold in our area, and their prices, and how they had come to our price.

The EA also said they often have sellers who go against their advice and insist on a higher price

A friend couldn't understand why her house wasn't getting any views: they finally dropped the price by £75k and got a bite

Yes, clearly deluded. Unlike you who chose to do your research and list at a realistic price from the start.