House prices

[Twiglets1]

Hi Guys, we got to the end of the last thread so need another one on this controversial topic!

And to respond to @CrashyTime I don't say "demand is strong" over and over again. In fact, I rarely comment on demand at all. My posts are more focussed on house prices and interest rates/mortgage rates.

And I don't deny economic "reality", I just don't exaggerate how bad the house price correction is likely to be. I have a running bet with @XVGN that property prices generally will fall about 5% in 2023 and another 5% in 2024 so I do believe prices are falling in most areas. Just nothing like the 30-35% crash predicted by some!

La La La, there is a housing shortage, there is a housing shortage, there is a housing shortage, if I say it enough it will be true............sorry article writer, there isn`t a housing shortage, there is too much misallocation of capital (cheap debt) into property - BTL/AirBnB etc. and second homes, holiday homes etc. Higher for longer rates are going to fix this problem though as people with too much property debt go bankrupt, the more schemes the government dream up (I hope they do a 105% mortgage loan scheme ) the more chance of the bond market taking a dim view of the UK Ponzi and borrowing costs going even higher!

Shows how fucked up things are, but I now want to see a proper run on the currency (many others do as well) it is the only thing that will break the Ponzi trance that the UK public have been brainwashed into! If the FED raise because their economy is "hot" and the UK keeps heading for recession then the UK property market is going to pop big time because they won`t be able to do the "multiple rate cuts" that so many debt junkies in the media and financial services were wetting themselves for last year.

Crashy, I suggest you lie down in a darkened room for a while ... perhaps put some whale music on or something... you seem a trifle agitated.

LOL, it will take more than whale music to calm me now, maybe I will have a listen to one of the FED speeches talking back to the "we want our interest rate cuts" bed wetters, maybe that will soothe me.

whatever works for you dear

A lot of people will probably be listening to "I am The Walrus" as this progresses, because that is all they are to the fat bankers in their glass houses.

A lot of homeowners will be listening to "Yesterday" as their house value plummets .... oh wait, that isn't happening after all

Well yes, most of them don`t have any viewings, they can dream up any price they want and pretend it is real, Lucy In The Sky with Equity.

It’s a long & winding road Crashy but worth it when they sell

As the original starter of this thread to speculate about house prices in Brum. We are now viewing houses and getting our photos taken by an estate agent next week. Houses round these parts that are good are still selling within days!! We've missed out on a couple already. I think prices have maybe dipped a bit from covid prices but they are still astronomical. I think properties that need a lot of work are still hanging around. I think most people know that inflation has made building work ridiculously expensive and are staying clear.

What's it like in everybody else's areas at the moment?

Houses are selling fast around here. Everyone is expecting IR to drop this year and next so I fully expect there to be steady increase in prices and they will definitely be higher in 2030 than now. Nobody will remember this period just like nobody remembers the banking crisis of 2007/08.

RE my comments re supppy and demand - this will always be the factor. You have to live somewhere. Also even if lots were struggling to buy that doesn’t mean there wouldn’t be buyers they just take the form of investors.

i do feel sad for those renting as I remember back when I was a kid and my friends parents whom had low paid jobs all could afford to buy. Nobody rented it n my close circle. The horse has bolted though and prices are highly likely to stay expensive. This is why I’d be keen to see deposit amount reduced and longer term mortgages introduced (50 year). Also if someone can prove they can pay rent this should be evidence that they can pay that in a mortgage.

My recent experience in my area is that well-maintained houses with good floorplans are selling very quickly if priced attractively. Lots of less desirable houses either needing work or with some sort of immutable flaw (no garden, some sort of undesirable boundary/location etc) are struggling to sell unless they drop their price. Houses that have been ‘flipped’ and obviously renovated by a developer are not selling unless excellent high end finish.

In general it feels like a very slow market with no guarantee of sale unless you either have an exemplary property or can be flexible on price.

Finally

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/cma-finds-fundamental-concerns-in-housebuilding-market

The state of BBC News! That CMA report was a pretty big story thirty minutes ago. Reuters straight on to it, as well as a report on 15% reduction in job vacancies. BBC? Nothing.

I honestly cannot fathom why anyone would buy a new build on an estate. Other than estates being utterly soulless places sometimes with plots crammed in and overlooked, it’s obvious to me that today’s shiny new property toy is next decade’s hard to shift house with what will have been cheap bathrooms and kitchen that will now need redoing.

I lived in Europe for a few years and we lived in a couple of new build apartments which couldn’t have been more different. High end finish, lovely architecture/design, large rooms, perfectly suitable for families, built to last.

Some people still think that HTB was devised to help buyers! The major British builders are at best hopeless and at worst corrupt. It's all about their profits and bonuses.

Congratulations to the BBC. After 30 minutes they finally added a small report on their Business page. Still no headline news.

I agree but the people I know who have bought new builds, they highly value the ease of moving into one with no work needed to do on them as they are in perfect condition. Or do they think, not always true in reality but they look perfect compared to older properties.

I have no information on the quality of Abel homes, but the fact that they can produce a 2 bed semi in Norfolk for £240K with 8 Solar Panels, Triple Glazing and a Garage, should make people question what they are buying from a major builder.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/144978161#/?channel=RES_NEW

House builders won’t build new houses if somehow they are expected to be worth less than what they deem market value. The horse has bolted and prices can not drop due to these reasons.

Or, you buy this from one of the builders' most renowned for £250K. Hugely smaller, no solar, no triple glazing, no garage, estate fees, etc. What they deem to be market value does not fit with reality. People should hold builders to account.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/144893033#/?channel=RES_NEW

Hey @Twiglets1 me and my friend also dealing with similar kinds of situations; if you get your answer please also advise me.

"Some people still think that HTB was devised to help buyers!"

Tragic if true.

I have been monitoring my local market on Rightmove (specific area, price range, # bedrooms) and theadvisory.co.uk

Since then the proportion of unsold to sold houses has risen from 18% to 39% and the property market "temperature" has gone from 70° to 51°

According to nationwide HPI, the value of the property we live in has declined by over 7% in nominal terms.

I live in an expensive city in the southwest.

I had thought that maybe the market had bottomed out in December, however the pickup in January seems to have been just a new year's bounce and everything is back down in February.

I've noticed more student properties for sale now and they are generally not shifting. The proportion of unsold properties is also higher for more expensive/larger houses versus starter homes.

I'm fairly agnostic on what will happen next. On balance I'm probably expecting further falls, but I'll be monitoring things carefully and will start viewing properties if there's significant evidence of an upswing. So far, waiting to buy has been quite profitable for us.