House prices

[Twiglets1]

Hi Guys, we got to the end of the last thread so need another one on this controversial topic!

And to respond to @CrashyTime I don't say "demand is strong" over and over again. In fact, I rarely comment on demand at all. My posts are more focussed on house prices and interest rates/mortgage rates.

And I don't deny economic "reality", I just don't exaggerate how bad the house price correction is likely to be. I have a running bet with @XVGN that property prices generally will fall about 5% in 2023 and another 5% in 2024 so I do believe prices are falling in most areas. Just nothing like the 30-35% crash predicted by some!

house prices will always be a supply and demand issue. I absolutely guarantee you if you your house will be worth more in 2025 then it was in 2020 and that it will be worth more in 2030 than in 2025. The U.K. has a chronic shortage of houses.

"The U.K. has a chronic shortage of houses."

"4.1 Sales volumesNumber of sales volumes by countryComparing the provisional volume estimate for the current month with the revised volume estimate for the corresponding month in the previous yearCountry October 2023 October 2022
England 37,026 67,264
Northern Ireland 1,773 2,242
Scotland 7,722 9,184
Wales 2,119 3,921"

Your claim just doesnt stack up when compared to the actual demand for houses Im afraid.

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-house-price-index-for-december-2023/uk-house-price-index-summary-december-2023

🤦 For the love of god will you please read some previous posts (or just Google) about the meaning of supply and demand.
Also, saying you can "absolutely guarantee" anything is a complete disqualification from being taken seriously. In the last week alone it's been reported that the AMOC may collapse by 2025, at which point none of our houses will be worth anything at all. You don't know what's going to happen in 2030. None of us do.

As we know from the post by @XVGN yesterday, the latest House Price Index showed that average UK house prices decreased by 1.4% in the 12 months to December 2023 (provisional estimate), up from a decrease of 2.3% (revised estimate) in the 12 months to November 2023.

The report published on 14 February 2024 was the last planned release. Their official statement reads "We remain committed to producing statistics on UK house prices with our partner government departments. We will continue to publish the latest UK House Price Index (HPI) main insights and links to relevant tables and datasets within our new, monthly "Private rent and house prices, UK" bulletin from 20 March 2024".

I know, it drives me crazy when people keep parroting the same old memes, even though all the stats on mortgage applications, sales etc. say the opposite. The "Supply and Demand" lie is probably responsible for getting more people into serious mortgage debt than anything else I would say.

Reuters article today: UK property prices show first annual rise since August - Rightmove

Property website Rightmove said on Monday that asking prices for homes rose 0.1% in February compared a year earlier, the first annual increase since August 2023. Prices increased by 0.9% from January, broadly in line with the 10-year average of a monthly 1.0% rise in February. After a slowdown, Britain's property sector has picked up in recent months as mortgage interest rates fell on expectations that the Bank of England will lower borrowing costs this year.

A measure of agreed sales in the first six weeks of 2024 was up 16% from a year earlier and was 3% higher compared with 2019, before the coronavirus pandemic, Rightmove said. Properties coming onto the market and buyer enquiries increased by 7%.

Tim Bannister, Rightmove's director of property science, said he was only cautiously optimistic with mortgage rates still elevated in historical terms. BoE officials have said they need to see further evidence of inflation pressures easing before cutting rates, despite the economy falling into a recession late last year. "While the mortgage market has recovered its stability, there are growing signs that the room for lenders to reduce rates further is narrowing, and that rates will settle at elevated levels for the near future," Rightmove said.

Monday's survey chimed with other signs of an improvement in Britain's housing market. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors reported this month the biggest jump in new buyer enquiries in nearly two years. Mortgage lenders Nationwide and Halifax both reported a rise in house prices in January.

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-property-prices-show-first-annual-rise-since-august-rightmove-2024-02-19/

Prices are rising again, all the things that have happened between 2008 and 2024 still havent reduced house prices , they are higher now than back then and will
be higher in 2030 than they are now. It’s always going up to be a supply and demand issue.

That's not universally true. Try looking at Liverpool on houseprices.io.

https://houseprices.io/?q=liverpool

There are many examples like this. And remember the 2 components of demand - the want to buy and the ability to buy.

Something is really off with that example you've chosen

There may be but pick another. There are plenty of examples. It's just a counterpoint to those who claim that prices always rise. Yes, they usually do but the timescales may be beyond your comprehension if you pay too much.

Prices do always rise though. They are higher now than in 2008, 2020 and 100% sure they will be higher in 2030 than in 2024

No. I have given you examples where that is not true.

What was the price in 2008 , 2020 and now?

Demand is less than half what it was in 2008.

https://www.plumplot.co.uk/North-West-property-transactions.html

The chances of finding a buyer in 2008 was far higher, a house without a buyer is just a roof and walls, you can`t turn it into money without a buyer.

Is it? That's not what that data shows at all.

@Lm1981
see graph at top
https://www.schroders.com/en/global/individual/insights/what-174-years-of-data-tell-us-about-house-price-affordability-in-the-uk/

No they don't and definitely in real terms, ie if the BOE debase the £ so much that a cucumber costs £100,000 and your house that was worth £500,000 when cucumbers were worth £1 and is now worth 2 million, that is not a real rise. I've kept the numbers v simple here!
There have been two examples on this board in the last couple of days and I've seen others recently too. One was today where someone was having to sell a flat for less than they had bought it several years ago. The other was someone who was selling a house they bought in 2021 for 16% less than the purchase price.
You just keep repeating the same thing over and over again. Are you offering to reimburse people who are out of pocket in 2025? I suspect you are very over leveraged yourself or in the property business and are worried. Whatever your circumstances, you shouldn't keep repeating the same, incorrect thing.

It will always be a supply and demand issue , the demand is there and people are taking on bigger / longer mortgages.

I am not sure what the motivation is for those denying house prices always rise over the long term.

They just like to cherry pick individual examples where a property hasn’t increased in value over a limited timescale @Lm1981 rather than accept what has happened in reality to house prices over the long term.

Maybe it’s wishful thinking from those that failed to get on the property ladder themselves or maybe it’s just boredom and wanting an argument I don’t know 🤷🏼‍♀️

I'm sure people have already explained what supply/ demand means but I'll try again.
Demand is those who want a property AND can afford the property. Demand has currently dried up because people cannot afford properties. Supply, on the other hand has increased and there is a fair likelihood that it will increase more this Spring.

Anyone predicting an 100% likelihood of something like this happening is not someone to take seriously. Even the most knowledgable and experienced of analysts never do this. There are plenty of examples but you seem to have entirely closed your mind to the possibility, as have some others on these sort of threads.

Have you looked at the graph?

I'm not sure what's going to happen in the future but the past is fact, and easily verifiable

It's a bit weird that you don't seem to care. Are you just trolling?

The demand is there , landlords end up buying houses and then rent them to younger people. While I would much prefer to see younger people get on the ladder properties are still selling.

for those hoping for a drop - are you renting and hoping that a drop will allow you to get on the ladder? Just curious as to why you seem to deny the facts

Actually @Lm1981, landlords are selling. There have been masses of reports about this. With higher IRs, BTLs are not profitable for those with lots of debt.

As I said, I can only assume that you are one of the over leveraged or someone with 'skin in the game'.

Prices ARE dropping just as Twiglets and others predicted they would. Can you demonstrate how they are wrong?

You still haven't grasped how demand works. You can't just want to buy. You also need the ability - and that means access to affordable credit to buy affordable homes.

No. I know that you hope that many of us are renting and have missed opportunities to start buying a home. You're wrong. Many of us have completed our home buying lifecycle and just want a better market for our youngsters.