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1000 replies

Twiglets1 · 13/12/2023 17:03

Hi Guys, we got to the end of the last thread so need another one on this controversial topic!

And to respond to @CrashyTime I don't say "demand is strong" over and over again. In fact, I rarely comment on demand at all. My posts are more focussed on house prices and interest rates/mortgage rates.

And I don't deny economic "reality", I just don't exaggerate how bad the house price correction is likely to be. I have a running bet with @XVGN that property prices generally will fall about 5% in 2023 and another 5% in 2024 so I do believe prices are falling in most areas. Just nothing like the 30-35% crash predicted by some!

OP posts:
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CrashyTime · 25/01/2024 17:27

Saschka · 23/01/2024 18:41

You can. The seller just isn’t likely to accept it. Which is also fine, if they aren’t that interested in selling.

You dont know what a seller will accept though, there are many varieties of seller, the batshit crazy that just cant/won`t accept that the market has changed are probably a minority IMO, most people just get with the program when they see rates rising and house prices dropping.

Saschka · 25/01/2024 17:36

CrashyTime · 25/01/2024 17:27

You dont know what a seller will accept though, there are many varieties of seller, the batshit crazy that just cant/won`t accept that the market has changed are probably a minority IMO, most people just get with the program when they see rates rising and house prices dropping.

Agree, I just think anyone pricing their house 20% over market value is likely to be in the batshit/unreasonable camp.

CrashyTime · 25/01/2024 17:40

Saschka · 25/01/2024 17:36

Agree, I just think anyone pricing their house 20% over market value is likely to be in the batshit/unreasonable camp.

To be fair real "market value" is only discovered when someone actually completes their purchase on the house? And if they have no viewings they wont have been exposed to lenders valuations either, and may just be going on EA bullshit (or maybe they are just bonkers)

Saschka · 25/01/2024 17:46

If the house has newly come to market, I agree. I’m more talking about sellers whose house has been on the market for six months or more, without any offers (or even viewings in some cases). And who haven’t dropped the asking price.

With those sellers, it’s a fools errand to put a lowball offer in IMO. Or any offer at all in, unless it is literally a one of a kind dream house that will never come up again.

Twiglets1 · 25/01/2024 18:00

Saschka · 25/01/2024 17:46

If the house has newly come to market, I agree. I’m more talking about sellers whose house has been on the market for six months or more, without any offers (or even viewings in some cases). And who haven’t dropped the asking price.

With those sellers, it’s a fools errand to put a lowball offer in IMO. Or any offer at all in, unless it is literally a one of a kind dream house that will never come up again.

Agreed - 6 months without price reductions is a level of "illogical captain" that makes lowball offers pointless.

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Tracker1234 · 25/01/2024 18:07

I think most people don’t NEED to sell. It would be nice to have more space, have a less commute, really need to get away from an ex etc but it’s surprising how many people will make do until the price they want to sell at comes their way.

Even probate houses arent always a bargain especially if one sibling wants to stick out for a higher price having done nothing to sell the house in the first place (I had this and had to lay the law down to sibling about leaving an empty house over the winter and the costs it was incurring.). Their idea was that every week I could just ‘pop’ in and check all was OK and they would cover my petrol costs out of the final estate!

So I don’t think there are many people who would take a 20% reduction. If they are still unsold after 6 months then to them what is another 6….

Twiglets1 · 25/01/2024 18:17

Agree with this and I also have experience of selling a probate property. It's so hard when you are selling with a sibling and have to fight to agree a reduction on price even when the property isn't selling. It makes you about as popular as the EA in their eyes.

Well done on being direct with your sibling - I know from personal experience it's not easy!

OP posts:
CrashyTime · 25/01/2024 22:02

Tracker1234 · 25/01/2024 18:07

I think most people don’t NEED to sell. It would be nice to have more space, have a less commute, really need to get away from an ex etc but it’s surprising how many people will make do until the price they want to sell at comes their way.

Even probate houses arent always a bargain especially if one sibling wants to stick out for a higher price having done nothing to sell the house in the first place (I had this and had to lay the law down to sibling about leaving an empty house over the winter and the costs it was incurring.). Their idea was that every week I could just ‘pop’ in and check all was OK and they would cover my petrol costs out of the final estate!

So I don’t think there are many people who would take a 20% reduction. If they are still unsold after 6 months then to them what is another 6….

" but it’s surprising how many people will make do until the price they want to sell at comes their way."

I think for most people that ship sailed some time ago.

KievLoverTwo · 26/01/2024 01:58

Twiglets1 · 13/01/2024 14:10

@KievLoverTwo your stress with your current living arrangements is hard to hear, CLEARLY you need to move for the sake of your happiness & I'm genuinely sorry you are under so much stress.

However, I felt attacked on the other thread by yourself and others for voicing my opinion. You don't like me voicing my opinion about Charlie but guess what? I don't like lots of opinions being voiced on Mumsnet but it's a public forum. He doesn't need 3 people rushing to his defence every time I make a post against him to balance the recommendations coming from you @XVGN and Rainingsnoring. You 3 seem to come as a pack, you don't live together do you??

I've now explained my negativity towards Charlie in terms of ways in which he has already been proved wrong (interest rates) why I feel his message was deliberately over dramatic (to grab attention and grow his business) and why I feel he won't revise in his extreme predictions despite new evidence (because he can shrug off being wrong whereas for his followers it could lead to them making poor financial decisions). I'm cynical about his motivations, you aren't, we don't need to convince each other or feel the other shouldn't post their opinion on Mumsnet.

You say you've seen 25% reductions but have you seen amazing bargains, that was my question? I know Charlie likes to post the occasional property massively reduced as if that somehow proves him correct about the property collapse he predicted, but those properties aren't bargains. They clearly have something majorly wrong with them or were massively ridiculously overpriced because any normal property would be snapped up at a 25% reduction. The houses you are seeing with 25k or 50k still not selling that is because no one likes them, they aren't a bargain and were just overpriced to begin with. Taking the market as a whole, prices aren't crashing at anything like 25%, most buyers are lucky if they can get about 10% reduction on the asking price.

Sorry for the delay in the reply. I needed a social media break because my pain levels have been going through the roof.

@KievLoverTwo your stress with your current living arrangements is hard to hear, CLEARLY you need to move for the sake of your happiness & I'm genuinely sorry you are under so much stress.

Thank you. I genuinely respect you, and your concern is touching. There's no sarcasm here. It gives me a warm feeling inside.

However, I felt attacked on the other thread by yourself and others for voicing my opinion. You don't like me voicing my opinion about Charlie but guess what? I don't like lots of opinions being voiced on Mumsnet but it's a public forum.

If you feel attacked it's because you are being attacked; we're not wolves, we don't come in a pack, if you're being attacked it's because a minority object. I've only ever conversed twice in PMs with @XVGN and that was to get the names of economists. If you feel that three people are 'attacking' you and none of of us know one another, who is statistically likely to be in the wrong?

Speaking personally, it's your repeated measures to put people off watching Charlie's videos. It's the way in which you say it: 'don't watch him, he's a Charlaton (sp?) who is only out for clicks/to make money.' You know how I feel about that.

He doesn't need 3 people rushing to his defence every time I make a post against him to balance the recommendations coming from you @XVGN and Rainingsnoring.

Perhaps if you didn't word things the way you do, he wouldn't have an imaginary mumsnet posse? I think the key is in the language you use. We don't have group messages to attack you. I have never conversed with any Charlie followers other than @XVGN for purposes mentioned above.

You 3 seem to come as a pack, you don't live together do you??

That would be dreamy. The most exciting thing that's happened to me this week is the other half spilling sugar all over his wet feet, not cleaning it off, putting his socks on, and being uncomfortable all day. That's our new 'in joke', because that's how exciting our life is.

I would welcome paid guests, or maybe even free ones. Come: save me from the madness of an ADHD/autistic fiance and absolutely piss boring countryside in a house that I hate so much that I fantasise it being blown away by a tornado (we had one last month, sadly not strong enough).

I've now explained my negativity towards Charlie in terms of ways in which he has already been proved wrong (interest rates) why I feel his message was deliberately over dramatic (to grab attention and grow his business) and why I feel he won't revise in his extreme predictions despite new evidence (because he can shrug off being wrong whereas for his followers it could lead to them making poor financial decisions). I'm cynical about his motivations, you aren't, we don't need to convince each other or feel the other shouldn't post their opinion on Mumsnet.

You've stated a few times that you can't bear more than five minutes of him (which I completely understand); in not doing so, you fail to see the number of times in which he admits he doesn't care if he is wrong. The only thing he seems to care about is keeping transaction levels flowing (which helps the software he flogs to EAs) and people not overpaying for houses, which seems to be his massive bugbear. I suspect some homelessness of some sort touched him or his family in the past, and it's an absolute mission for him.

You say you've seen 25% reductions but have you seen amazing bargains, that was my question?

Nope.

I know Charlie likes to post the occasional property massively reduced as if that somehow proves him correct about the property collapse he predicted, but those properties aren't bargains. They clearly have something majorly wrong with them or were massively ridiculously overpriced because any normal property would be snapped up at a 25% reduction.

Can't disagree with you here without seeing them.

The houses you are seeing with 25k or 50k still not selling that is because no one likes them, they aren't a bargain and were just overpriced to begin with.

I look at every one of them individually, approximately 40% of them are unrealistically overpriced.

Taking the market as a whole, prices aren't crashing at anything like 25%, most buyers are lucky if they can get about 10% reduction on the asking price.

That's a different conversation for another thread. I'll post a link.

KievLoverTwo · 26/01/2024 02:27

Twiglets1 · 13/12/2023 17:03

Hi Guys, we got to the end of the last thread so need another one on this controversial topic!

And to respond to @CrashyTime I don't say "demand is strong" over and over again. In fact, I rarely comment on demand at all. My posts are more focussed on house prices and interest rates/mortgage rates.

And I don't deny economic "reality", I just don't exaggerate how bad the house price correction is likely to be. I have a running bet with @XVGN that property prices generally will fall about 5% in 2023 and another 5% in 2024 so I do believe prices are falling in most areas. Just nothing like the 30-35% crash predicted by some!

Some recent analysis of four counties:

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/property/4993616-i-downloaded-the-house-price-data-for-four-counties-in-england-nov-22-vs-nov-23-heres-the-results-of-house-price-fallsgains

I downloaded the house price data for four counties in England: Nov 22 vs Nov 23 - here's the results of house price falls/gains | Mumsnet

Before you read the below information and panic/rejoice, bear in mind a few things: Samples sizes below 10% are generally considered to not be wholly...

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/property/4993616-i-downloaded-the-house-price-data-for-four-counties-in-england-nov-22-vs-nov-23-heres-the-results-of-house-price-fallsgains

Twiglets1 · 26/01/2024 08:20

@KievLoverTwo totally understand & respect your pause from social media, I’ve done it myself in the past when it feels more stressful than enjoyable.

We are just going to have to agree to disagree about Charlie! I have taken a real dislike to the guy as is obvious. I find him narcissistic and dishonest the way he made a dramatic prediction to get noticed on social media amongst all the other property guys fighting to get heard on YouTube. His central message is pure click bait in my opinion. To the extent that he did succeed in getting noticed in an overcrowded marketplace, I can admit that he used good tactics. But he needs to start backpedaling a bit quicker now it is obvious the U.K won’t have a 35% fall in house prices between 2022 to 2025 (more once you add inflation as he said this figure was before inflation).

I don’t doubt that some of what he does and some of his advice is useful, particularly to FTBs. But I can’t get over the cynical thing he did to get noticed. I don’t watch his videos but I do check what he’s up to on Twitter sometimes. Even he seems to have stopped taking about the 35% drop now & is trying to adopt a more mainstream persona.

OP posts:
rainingsnoring · 26/01/2024 14:52

This reply has been deleted

Message deleted by MNHQ. Here's a link to our Talk Guidelines.

Twiglets1 · 29/01/2024 08:16

Yes it is, though if 1/5 of sellers are cutting prices by 10% or more according to Zoopla, that still suggests that 4/5s of sellers are cutting by less than 10%. And there will be big regional variations of course - as high as 1/4 in London and the South East but lower than 1/5 in other areas.

The article does also point out that Zoopla "did find some reasons for optimism. Buyer demand has risen 12% with the biggest increase in London of 21%. Agreed sales have also increased across the country, up 13% compared to the same time last year with sales rising in all regions".

OP posts:
CrashyTime · 29/01/2024 13:21

Twiglets1 · 29/01/2024 08:16

Yes it is, though if 1/5 of sellers are cutting prices by 10% or more according to Zoopla, that still suggests that 4/5s of sellers are cutting by less than 10%. And there will be big regional variations of course - as high as 1/4 in London and the South East but lower than 1/5 in other areas.

The article does also point out that Zoopla "did find some reasons for optimism. Buyer demand has risen 12% with the biggest increase in London of 21%. Agreed sales have also increased across the country, up 13% compared to the same time last year with sales rising in all regions".

Zoopla isn`t really worth using, these are better IMO..

https://www.plumplot.co.uk/

England and Wales facts in maps and graphs

Visualisation of crime stats, house prices, population stats, average salary, unemployment rates, car crashes and supermarkets.

https://www.plumplot.co.uk

CrashyTime · 29/01/2024 13:23

And of course to get a realistic feel for seller sentiment, not the massaged figures and P.R soundbites put out by property VI`s, use this...

https://www.propertylog.net/

Property Log

A Google Chrome extension for tracking price changes on Rightmove.

https://www.propertylog.net

CrashyTime · 29/01/2024 13:26

Twiglets1 · 29/01/2024 08:16

Yes it is, though if 1/5 of sellers are cutting prices by 10% or more according to Zoopla, that still suggests that 4/5s of sellers are cutting by less than 10%. And there will be big regional variations of course - as high as 1/4 in London and the South East but lower than 1/5 in other areas.

The article does also point out that Zoopla "did find some reasons for optimism. Buyer demand has risen 12% with the biggest increase in London of 21%. Agreed sales have also increased across the country, up 13% compared to the same time last year with sales rising in all regions".

If job losses are starting people will stay away from the property market ( I see China has started to properly implode today with their property sector, will there be knock on effects in credit markets meaning higher borrowing costs here?) sellers are going to have to get real pretty soon with their price cuts IMO, if they actually want to sell that is.

CrashyTime · 29/01/2024 13:31

https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/markets/evergrandes-liquidation-could-derail-the-chinese-economy-and-have-global-effects/ar-BB1hpgTq

"Evergrande's liquidation is a sign that China is willing to go to extreme ends to quell the property bubble," said Andrew Collier, managing director of Orient Capital Research in Hong Kong.
"This is good for the economy in the long term, but very difficult in the short term."

When will the PTB here catch on that bursting the property bubble is the only way for the economy to have any chance in future?

Still cant believe that a property bubble was 30% of Chinas GDP, absolutely mind-boggling!

MSN

https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/markets/evergrandes-liquidation-could-derail-the-chinese-economy-and-have-global-effects/ar-BB1hpgTq

cupcakesarelife · 29/01/2024 14:14

Twiglets1 · 25/01/2024 18:00

Agreed - 6 months without price reductions is a level of "illogical captain" that makes lowball offers pointless.

I'm actually purchasing a property of this description. Got 125k off the asking price. SE London. It was definitely not worth what it was marketed for, a proper fixer-upper that the EAs were trying to pretend was non-existent. After getting builders quotes and proving the work needing doing, the vendor accepted our offer, incl after the surveyor reported the roof will need replacing soon. His property was on the market for 6 months, no offers. Me and my husband just went for it. Vendor is a nice guy, elderly and just been strung along by greedy EAs. The feedback from a few viewings was that it needed work doing. They clearly weren't doing their job.

CrashyTime · 29/01/2024 15:00

Are EA`s scared that if people see 125k price drops they will take their house off the market, that is the only reasoning I can think off from the EA perspective for still encouraging silly pricing?

Twiglets1 · 29/01/2024 15:14

cupcakesarelife · 29/01/2024 14:14

I'm actually purchasing a property of this description. Got 125k off the asking price. SE London. It was definitely not worth what it was marketed for, a proper fixer-upper that the EAs were trying to pretend was non-existent. After getting builders quotes and proving the work needing doing, the vendor accepted our offer, incl after the surveyor reported the roof will need replacing soon. His property was on the market for 6 months, no offers. Me and my husband just went for it. Vendor is a nice guy, elderly and just been strung along by greedy EAs. The feedback from a few viewings was that it needed work doing. They clearly weren't doing their job.

125k reduction sounds really good. Do you mind saying what that was as a percentage of the initial asking price?

We ended up accepting 100k off my Dads flat in London, which also needed lots of work doing to it. But as a percentage that was less than 10% of the asking price.

OP posts:
Twiglets1 · 29/01/2024 15:19

CrashyTime · 29/01/2024 15:00

Are EA`s scared that if people see 125k price drops they will take their house off the market, that is the only reasoning I can think off from the EA perspective for still encouraging silly pricing?

I think they over value predominantly just to win the business. But the 125k reduction may only be about 10% depending on the price of the property so no worse really than someone paying 450k for a property valued at 500k.

I’m speaking generally as @cupcakesarelife may have negotiated more than 10% off I don’t know.

OP posts:
Twiglets1 · 29/01/2024 15:21

CrashyTime · 29/01/2024 13:23

And of course to get a realistic feel for seller sentiment, not the massaged figures and P.R soundbites put out by property VI`s, use this...

https://www.propertylog.net/

Property log is a useful resource I agree.

OP posts:
rainingsnoring · 29/01/2024 19:10

CrashyTime · 29/01/2024 13:31

https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/markets/evergrandes-liquidation-could-derail-the-chinese-economy-and-have-global-effects/ar-BB1hpgTq

"Evergrande's liquidation is a sign that China is willing to go to extreme ends to quell the property bubble," said Andrew Collier, managing director of Orient Capital Research in Hong Kong.
"This is good for the economy in the long term, but very difficult in the short term."

When will the PTB here catch on that bursting the property bubble is the only way for the economy to have any chance in future?

Still cant believe that a property bubble was 30% of Chinas GDP, absolutely mind-boggling!

The collapse of Evergrande is a pretty massive story which is very likely to have significant ramifications.

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