House Prices

[LGBirmingham]

House prices still seem to be rising? Does anyone else think this?

Interesting, I'm not on most social media now bar this site. Must've missed it. You'd have thought first time buyers would be disappointed rather than emboldened by that statement.

The young people I know who were holding off are starting to worry that prices are about to rise again. But yes, also disappointed.

In lots of ways it feels like 2008 again, just before, when there were so many conflicting reports about the housing market that nobody could call it. But I do find the spin and twisting of data quite distasteful. I guess it's understandable from businesses who rely on talking up the market, but also irresponsible imo.

Mortgage lending down about 30% now since last year, what a difference a few months makes in this climate?

Staying about neutral round here (SE London) but things selling fast. House opposite us went SSTC in a weekend and now sold with owners moving out last week. Nothing on my street staying on for long when it does come up. I’ve known people who’ve been holding off for years because this and that will bring about a crash any day now. Entirely pointless. If you want to buy and can afford to buy then just get on with it as opposed to trying to time the untimeable. Don’t end up like @CrashyTime and his pals over on HPC forever predicting the big one just around the corner that never materialises.

Can you link to the general area so we can have a look with PropertyLog?

Still rising and selling within 1 to 2 weeks of being listed in my village/area for houses under £1M.
Houses over that seem to be on RM a while, but I think normal.

South west

Rightmove reporting this weekend that London prices peaked in May and asking prices have fallen 3.4% since then (biggest drop of any region). I guess that is an average and your particular area might be faring better.

Falling in south west.

NW coast. What was 170k in June are now coming to market at 150k. Not even starting higher and reducing, just listing at that amount.

It's kinda depressing because it's not really the sort of price bracket people can easily afford to be taking a hit on.

200k + and problem properties (on main roads, not enough bathrooms, high crime areas, poorly maintained, tiny kitchens etc) sticking around for a very long time.

Problem is even if the prices are falling, following the mortgage interest rate rises it still costs more for the monthly mortgage payments. Prices arent falling enough to make the mortgage payments more affordable.

The only people who would benefit are those that either have the money already in the bank or for some other reason dont need a mortgage.

SE London - asking prices are going up, sold prices don’t seem to be (I am seeing houses appearing on Land Registry, and remember what they were asking for 6-12 months ago).

Most places do go in a month or two (sellers accepting offers). There are a few places which have been on the market for 3-5 months, owners refusing to consider offers below asking. I guess they will stay on until prices rise again.

They definitely were going down in May when you started the Op, but I have noticed in recent weeks they've risen quite dramatically. At first I thought it was just a strange week but it's been going on there for three weeks or more and it's very noticeable. That's in the south coast. .

That just means prices have to fall more or the market will stall completely, that never happens though, people who need to sell will cut their price to do so and there is so much more 2nd homes/BTL/AirBnB than in previous crashes that when it finally gives way there could be a real burst of supply as people try to exit, basically any serious prolonged recession would hammer holiday homes/AirBnB and BTL.

I am looking in the west side of Leicestershire, with a plan to buy next year (nothing to sell and lucky enough to be cash buyers). I keep a list of potential houses on Rightmove and prices are definitely dropping with many properties sticking around for months. It is very dependent on area I suppose.

Also helped a relative sell nearby recently, 5 months to get a proceedable offer and that was only after several reductions. The agents must have over valued it initially, even though I told them clearly my relative needed a quick sale.

But overall I think prices are falling in most areas? Or will be soon. It is ridiculous of Rightmove to base their data on initial asking prices only, that is meaningless. It should be based on actual sold prices. It just reflects their bias of course.

Yes, rising here, albeit slower than the last few years. Estate agents anticipated this slight dip, where they flatlighned earlier this year, now rising again because things have stabilised.

Where are you though?

They are falling where I live after being static for ages, a 3 bed ex council townhouse used to be £135k, now £120k.

Also had another relative sell a probate property this year, near Bristol. Took a long while and they were also gazundered just before exchange, which they reluctantly accepted.

Zoopla have announced this morning that the number of houses sold in the UK this year is on track to be lowest since 2012.

If the industry itself are releasing bad news, it's bad news. They talk it up and 'nterpret the data positively, and bury bad news, for as long as they can.

It'll take longer for a slump to filter through to robust, popular areas but it will happen eventually as it did in 2008 and the 90s before that.

I think I'm probably not keeping a close enough eye on the market round here to be a proper judge of it. Some properties do seem to be staying on for a long time and sometimes get 'reduced' but I look at the asking price and think 'I'm sure that was the same price as it was on for before it was reduced'.

Asking prices don't seem to have dipped here tbh. Still much higher than pre-covid.

The earliest we would consider moving would be next year anyway regardless of prices. I wonder what will happen by then? No idea how people are paying these huge interest rates on these massively inflated house prices. I would previously have considered a mortgage repayment of over £1000 a lot. Now something under £2000 is probably good going.

Gosh that's very cheap. A three bed 1930s former council house round here with updating needed would probably have an asking price of more like £250k. No idea if they sell for that price though.

Still slowly falling here on South Coast. I think the reductions have increased noticeably over the last few weeks but to be honest I don't count them.
I expect to see more significant falls over the next 2 or 3 quarters. It's like watching an oil tanker make a 180 degree turn, but I get the feeling it's about turned now and starting to head in the opposite direction.

My cousin bought a 3 bed house in Dorset to Airbnb, some people have too much money & weird ideas about hobbies
What was supposed to be fully booked, 70% occupancy at full whack has turned out to be a last minute booking with reductions. The rise in energy levels also means it's not economic to rent out over winter.
Local anecdata suggests that those of us that once would have booked weekends, self catering, away in generous sized properties are cutting back.
Hopefully, the lovely family houses on Airbnb will be more valuable as full-time homes.

Sometimes it’s laughable on here.
Transactions are down 20%. Of course you get wild swinging of values (as more transactions take place at the upper ends of the market - higher LTVs/low mortgages etc) which skew the numbers.

https://x.com/moving_charlie/status/1696775805894824321?s=46

Just take a look at the US as a guide to what to expect here (hint we won’t remain in a bubble if the rest of the western world isn’t).

US Jobs now rolled over to one of the steepest declines on record

https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/1696543039601221766?s=46

Mortgage rates in the US hits the highest since 2001 at 7.2%

https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/1688746679543971840?s=46

Canada lost 45k construction jobs in July alone

https://x.com/wallstreetsilv/status/1695331557219664022?s=46

Delusional if people don’t think similar will start to effect here in the next few months.