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House Prices

1000 replies

LGBirmingham · 19/05/2023 20:59

House prices still seem to be rising? Does anyone else think this?

OP posts:
Thread gallery
79
rainingsnoring · 31/08/2023 14:14

Onegingerhead · 31/08/2023 13:29

In my area nothing is shifting either. We live in a relatively cheap part of the country which didn't really experience post Covid price boom.
As an example of how cheap (or not according to some) my area is a typical two up two down would cost between 195K and 220K depending on how much work was put into it.
Yet, market is stagnant. Some people would say it is because houses are no longer affordable given the rate hike.
Now, I ran some numbers and with 10% deposit this old Victorian terrace is definitely affordable for 2 people even on min wage.
Example. HSBC (my lender so I chose it) 5 year fix 5.79% (no fee)
House 220000, 20K deposit.
£1136 for 25 years term
Min wage £10.42/hour, listentotaxman gives £1,486.76 after tax (x2 = £2973) therefore the potential mortgage payment a bit over 30% of take home pay. Affordable or?...

Which means people are holding off/scared to fall into negative equity/scared of redundancies/waiting for a big crash/etc
What will happen when all of them stop being scared?

Your maths is a bit off.

The percentage, using your figures, is nearly 40% of take home pay.
That is with absolutely no pension provision which is an essential. Putting money aside in a pension would make the mortgage a much higher percentage of take home pay.
Other issues are that the deposit is very challenging to save on NMW if you need to pay rent or already have children.
FTB are much older now because of high deposits/ house prices so may not want a two up, two down. Not saying this is wrong or right but that it may well be the case.

I'm sure many are all worried about the other things you mention which are likely to become a reality.

CrashyTime · 31/08/2023 14:16

Lightscribe · 31/08/2023 13:35

I’m not on housepricecrash.

I had exactly the same responses like yours when I explained how yield curve inversions work and that inflation was coming with the following consequential interest rate rises on here over two years ago.

People on here constantly repeating what they was reading in the media at the time. There would be no inflation, interest rates would never rise etc etc.

Come back in one year from now and see how it’s going then.

"two years ago."

Yep, anyone following the standard "houses never crash, interest rates never go up" wisdom from some posters 2 and 5 years ago could be in a right debt mess by now if they are coming off fixed rates.

Twiglets1 · 31/08/2023 14:18

CrashyTime · 31/08/2023 14:13

Bond market reaction to Truss budget says No, Bond market says NO, all the interventions were done when central banks globally were coordinating to bring rates down, now they are all competing to get rid of inflation in their own economies, the FED for example doesn`t care if people in the UK who borrowed too much for property lose a lot of money. See China for how ineffective desperate interventions in the mortgage market are in the face of a full scale property crash and collapse in sentiment.

We're not in China we're in the UK, they have their problems we have ours.

You are in the minority with your views of a house price crash as opposed to a slide but as I said before, time will tell.

CrashyTime · 31/08/2023 14:19

CountryCob · 31/08/2023 10:41

OK, looking forward to buying a family home at 80s prices soon.

You will get early 2000s prices not 80s, depends how high the rates go.

rainingsnoring · 31/08/2023 14:23

Twiglets1 · 31/08/2023 13:59

I think no UK government will allow a big house price crash. It is predictable that they will intervene to prop up the property market if things look really bad even if they shouldn't.

You and certain others may disagree and that's fine, no one knows the future for sure but time will tell anyway.

They may well attempt to prop it up, yes. Not just the housing market but the whole economy.
As Lightscribe has explained and the link also explains, this may simply not be possible due to levels of debt, lack of tax payers and too many obligations. It simply won't be possible for them to borrow without major consequences which will likely make things even worse, as I have already said.

Blind faith in the UK government's ability is likely to lead to disappointment.

CrashyTime · 31/08/2023 14:23

Flutterbye22 · 31/08/2023 13:30

Ah gotcha. That makes sense.

sadly, I think that’s happened to a fair few people.

Yes, large numbers of people fell for the "Big debt is good for Basic Shelter" mantra, the bankers probably couldn`t believe how well it actually went over, they must have been expecting at least SOME resistance?

Twiglets1 · 31/08/2023 14:49

rainingsnoring · 31/08/2023 14:23

They may well attempt to prop it up, yes. Not just the housing market but the whole economy.
As Lightscribe has explained and the link also explains, this may simply not be possible due to levels of debt, lack of tax payers and too many obligations. It simply won't be possible for them to borrow without major consequences which will likely make things even worse, as I have already said.

Blind faith in the UK government's ability is likely to lead to disappointment.

I don't have blind faith in the government but I do think property prices will continue to slide (or stagnate in certain areas) rather than crash. There are so many interventions the government could make and they have already signalled their expectation that lenders will avoid repossessions apart from in the most dire circumstances. No one could have foreseen that house prices would rise during covid, yet somehow they did due to government intervention. We know that we are currently undergoing a correction which will take property prices back to pre covid times but it's rare that a reputable professional predicts house prices falling by more than 15% from peak to trough.

You and Crashy have quite niche views that are out of step with mainstream thinking and the forecasting of most analysts and Economists. Yes they could all be wrong and you could be right. But I'm putting my money on them rather than Crashy with his dodgy keyboard and Rainingsnoring on Mumsnet.

KievLoverTwo · 31/08/2023 14:50

Onegingerhead · 31/08/2023 13:29

In my area nothing is shifting either. We live in a relatively cheap part of the country which didn't really experience post Covid price boom.
As an example of how cheap (or not according to some) my area is a typical two up two down would cost between 195K and 220K depending on how much work was put into it.
Yet, market is stagnant. Some people would say it is because houses are no longer affordable given the rate hike.
Now, I ran some numbers and with 10% deposit this old Victorian terrace is definitely affordable for 2 people even on min wage.
Example. HSBC (my lender so I chose it) 5 year fix 5.79% (no fee)
House 220000, 20K deposit.
£1136 for 25 years term
Min wage £10.42/hour, listentotaxman gives £1,486.76 after tax (x2 = £2973) therefore the potential mortgage payment a bit over 30% of take home pay. Affordable or?...

Which means people are holding off/scared to fall into negative equity/scared of redundancies/waiting for a big crash/etc
What will happen when all of them stop being scared?

It's a mixture of a bit of trepidation for the future, but also the rate at which EVERYTHING is going up and it just doesn't seem to stop.

Food. We've all seen the food inflation prices, on a basket of 500 regularly compared goods (idk? dried pasta, rice, milk, butter, etc?), but we've also all been in the shops. We know that stuff outside that basket has gone up, for the most part, 40-50%, if not more. And a lot of these are regular things, like a cucumber, doubling in price. Sugar's gone up by 60% and so have most things containing it. It's never been so expensive to be fat in my lifetime.

Insurance. I'm expecting our car insurance to be 30-40% more next year because it's been all over the news.

Car lease. The absolute cheapest we could find a new car lease went up from 250 to 352 per month last Spring.

Cooker. In Dec 22 I was looking to replace our cooker. I got annoyed trying to decide and left it til Feb 23, by which time it had gone up 10% (a low end range, so almost 2k).

Cat operation. Quoted 2.5k in October 22. Sat on the fence because it's quite a brutal procedure and I wasn't sure whether she could cope due to having two illnesses. Called about it in Feb 23. Now 3k.

Cat meds. Our cat had to have blood tests monthly and every single month I went in, it had gone up by a couple of quid. Might not seem like much, but when that couple of quid takes it to £196 for a blood test, it ain't cheap, and that's not even the super deluxe blood tests. A 34 hour emergency stay was £930 in October last year. Fecal sample, £250. Vet appt, £54ish. Monthly injections for other cat: £110 plus vet fee of £54 or nurse fee of £32 (the injection vet was taking the p*ss, we went elsewhere).

Energy. Yeah so the unit rate is going down on 1st Oct, but they're increasing the daily charge, and there's no £67 a month payment towards energy for six months this winter. People are going to feel that.

Petrol. Two, three weeks ago, it was 1.39 a litre. Now it's bounced back up above 1.45p. The volatility of it is unpleasant.

Aren't water companies about to put bills up massively? Mine is included in my rent so idk, but I think I read something. They've had a reputation for years of being a very cheap utility, so that's a bit of a shock.

BT put my broadband up from 52 to 59 in March even though I'm in a two year contract, because it's written in their T&Cs that they can still put prices up mid contract once a year. I can see they're offering the same deal for £32.99 at the moment, but when those folks contracts run out, it'll shoot to over 60, even though they have literally no extra work to do to keep the customer. I have absolutely no idea what they're going to propose to charge us when we're out of contract next August - ninety quid? But they do, because they can.

I could probably think of a load more examples but it's not necessary. It's not that things always need to go up in price, it's that things you don't usually notice a price increase on are shocking, because the increase is so substantial, or, things that have, in a roundabout fashion not really increased much over the years suddenly are. It's just relentless.

Added to that, mortgage rates we've been quoted (with 95% LTV) have gone from 2.77% to 6.56% from April 22 to August 2023. So the house you've quoted above would have cost £933 in April last year, this August it's £1371 a month.

If you look beyond affordability for a minute (we could buy that and still have over 3k a month disposable), look at the amount of money you're repaying in total for the loan. For a duration of 25 years:

Apr 2022 rate: total amount repayable - 299k
Aug 2023 rate: total amount repayable - 421k

This is how it ends up falling into the do I even want to? category.

Yeah, I know rates have historically been around 6% and we need to get used to the new normal, but the difference is what you get for your money. The actual bricks and mortar around you. How much of your income it takes up, that it's pretty obvious we're past the stage of houses rises in value 'so it'll be alright in the end', plus, for some, crippling anxiety about negative equity, particularly to those of child bearing age who KNOW if they start off really small, they're absolutely going to need a bigger home within 3-5 years.

I love that the government think they're doing citizens a good turn by encouraging banks to extend mortgage terms and so on. Yeah, it means people don't lose their homes and I think that's absolutely great, but on a 40 year mortgage at a 6.56% mortgage rate, you'll be paying back 574k for a 200k loan. It's not just your immediate disposable income you have to worry about, it's a lifetime's worth of it.

Of course the banks want you to extend your terms and not downsize. OF COURSE THEY DO!

Ooh, that went on a bit, didn't it?

/rant done

whistles

rainingsnoring · 31/08/2023 14:56

Really good post @KievLoverTwo
Useful to spell out just how much regular, essential bills/costs have risen.

rainingsnoring · 31/08/2023 15:03

Twiglets1 · 31/08/2023 14:49

I don't have blind faith in the government but I do think property prices will continue to slide (or stagnate in certain areas) rather than crash. There are so many interventions the government could make and they have already signalled their expectation that lenders will avoid repossessions apart from in the most dire circumstances. No one could have foreseen that house prices would rise during covid, yet somehow they did due to government intervention. We know that we are currently undergoing a correction which will take property prices back to pre covid times but it's rare that a reputable professional predicts house prices falling by more than 15% from peak to trough.

You and Crashy have quite niche views that are out of step with mainstream thinking and the forecasting of most analysts and Economists. Yes they could all be wrong and you could be right. But I'm putting my money on them rather than Crashy with his dodgy keyboard and Rainingsnoring on Mumsnet.

You can put your faith in whoever you like but bear in mind that all the official forecasting has been wrong so far.
I have never said anything about a crash myself; that's a term that others keep using. I have said falls over a period which will likely be very significant in total. Even your possible 15% scenario is much more in real terms.
I don't dispute that the government may/ will try to intervene. In fact, I've mentioned Miras before and whether they might try this. I seem to remember that you were dismissive at the time. I disagree that they have multiple tricks up their sleeves and that these would be large enough to prevent significant falls, at least not without catastrophic side effects such as currency collapse.
We will only be able to tell who was nearer to the truth in a few years time.

Flutterbye22 · 31/08/2023 15:04

KievLoverTwo · 31/08/2023 14:50

It's a mixture of a bit of trepidation for the future, but also the rate at which EVERYTHING is going up and it just doesn't seem to stop.

Food. We've all seen the food inflation prices, on a basket of 500 regularly compared goods (idk? dried pasta, rice, milk, butter, etc?), but we've also all been in the shops. We know that stuff outside that basket has gone up, for the most part, 40-50%, if not more. And a lot of these are regular things, like a cucumber, doubling in price. Sugar's gone up by 60% and so have most things containing it. It's never been so expensive to be fat in my lifetime.

Insurance. I'm expecting our car insurance to be 30-40% more next year because it's been all over the news.

Car lease. The absolute cheapest we could find a new car lease went up from 250 to 352 per month last Spring.

Cooker. In Dec 22 I was looking to replace our cooker. I got annoyed trying to decide and left it til Feb 23, by which time it had gone up 10% (a low end range, so almost 2k).

Cat operation. Quoted 2.5k in October 22. Sat on the fence because it's quite a brutal procedure and I wasn't sure whether she could cope due to having two illnesses. Called about it in Feb 23. Now 3k.

Cat meds. Our cat had to have blood tests monthly and every single month I went in, it had gone up by a couple of quid. Might not seem like much, but when that couple of quid takes it to £196 for a blood test, it ain't cheap, and that's not even the super deluxe blood tests. A 34 hour emergency stay was £930 in October last year. Fecal sample, £250. Vet appt, £54ish. Monthly injections for other cat: £110 plus vet fee of £54 or nurse fee of £32 (the injection vet was taking the p*ss, we went elsewhere).

Energy. Yeah so the unit rate is going down on 1st Oct, but they're increasing the daily charge, and there's no £67 a month payment towards energy for six months this winter. People are going to feel that.

Petrol. Two, three weeks ago, it was 1.39 a litre. Now it's bounced back up above 1.45p. The volatility of it is unpleasant.

Aren't water companies about to put bills up massively? Mine is included in my rent so idk, but I think I read something. They've had a reputation for years of being a very cheap utility, so that's a bit of a shock.

BT put my broadband up from 52 to 59 in March even though I'm in a two year contract, because it's written in their T&Cs that they can still put prices up mid contract once a year. I can see they're offering the same deal for £32.99 at the moment, but when those folks contracts run out, it'll shoot to over 60, even though they have literally no extra work to do to keep the customer. I have absolutely no idea what they're going to propose to charge us when we're out of contract next August - ninety quid? But they do, because they can.

I could probably think of a load more examples but it's not necessary. It's not that things always need to go up in price, it's that things you don't usually notice a price increase on are shocking, because the increase is so substantial, or, things that have, in a roundabout fashion not really increased much over the years suddenly are. It's just relentless.

Added to that, mortgage rates we've been quoted (with 95% LTV) have gone from 2.77% to 6.56% from April 22 to August 2023. So the house you've quoted above would have cost £933 in April last year, this August it's £1371 a month.

If you look beyond affordability for a minute (we could buy that and still have over 3k a month disposable), look at the amount of money you're repaying in total for the loan. For a duration of 25 years:

Apr 2022 rate: total amount repayable - 299k
Aug 2023 rate: total amount repayable - 421k

This is how it ends up falling into the do I even want to? category.

Yeah, I know rates have historically been around 6% and we need to get used to the new normal, but the difference is what you get for your money. The actual bricks and mortar around you. How much of your income it takes up, that it's pretty obvious we're past the stage of houses rises in value 'so it'll be alright in the end', plus, for some, crippling anxiety about negative equity, particularly to those of child bearing age who KNOW if they start off really small, they're absolutely going to need a bigger home within 3-5 years.

I love that the government think they're doing citizens a good turn by encouraging banks to extend mortgage terms and so on. Yeah, it means people don't lose their homes and I think that's absolutely great, but on a 40 year mortgage at a 6.56% mortgage rate, you'll be paying back 574k for a 200k loan. It's not just your immediate disposable income you have to worry about, it's a lifetime's worth of it.

Of course the banks want you to extend your terms and not downsize. OF COURSE THEY DO!

Ooh, that went on a bit, didn't it?

/rant done

whistles

Yeah - great post.

KievLoverTwo · 31/08/2023 15:05

rainingsnoring · 31/08/2023 14:56

Really good post @KievLoverTwo
Useful to spell out just how much regular, essential bills/costs have risen.

The vets hate how much they're having to increase prices, to be fair to them - certainly our vet wasn't trying to rake in high profits in a mostly not affluent area. The brunt of the cost is mostly coming from the pharmaceutical providers and the laboratories providing test results.

gesticulates wildly

But it IS just everything. I'm sure it's not my imagination!

Twiglets1 · 31/08/2023 15:13

@rainingsnoring yes I was dismissive about MIRAS - it was abolished by a Labour government in the year 2000 so can't see them reinstating it again now. They will want something shiny and new wheras MIRAS was tarnished by the end and labelled by Gordon Brown as a "middle class perk".

KievLoverTwo · 31/08/2023 15:14

Flutterbye22 · 31/08/2023 15:04

Yeah - great post.

Thanks.

I felt like I was Ranty McOldperson typing all that out.

I think the main thing bugging me at the moment is lenders encouraging 40 year mortgages and what it's going to do for the lifetime disposable incomes of those starting out, esp if rates stick at around 6%.

Do they do the lifelong calcs like I did? Or do they just plug in an amount and extend the term years until the monthly amount becomes affordable? I know a broker was encouraging us to get a 33 year long mortgage back in May. 'X Y and Z lenders won't lend so what we have to do is extend the term.'

(we did not buy that house)

It's just a thoroughly depressing number and the lifetime % of house value to amount of loan cost is not pleasant.

Twiglets1 · 31/08/2023 15:16

@KievLoverTwo I don't agree with the introduction of 40 year mortgages either. But a 40 year mortgage wouldn't mean people fixing for 40 years at a 6.56% mortgage rate. Or at least, I hope not!

Mortgage rates are forecast to come down a bit from next year as the BOE base rate falls, so I wouldn't be fixing for 5 years right now let alone 40!!

KievLoverTwo · 31/08/2023 15:26

Twiglets1 · 31/08/2023 15:16

@KievLoverTwo I don't agree with the introduction of 40 year mortgages either. But a 40 year mortgage wouldn't mean people fixing for 40 years at a 6.56% mortgage rate. Or at least, I hope not!

Mortgage rates are forecast to come down a bit from next year as the BOE base rate falls, so I wouldn't be fixing for 5 years right now let alone 40!!

I agree. They're unlikely to stay at that forever. But when you remove the last 15 years from the equation, hasn't the average (massive peaks and troughs excluded) been about 6% for the last 100 years?

I certainly wouldn't commit to a 40 year mortgage in the hope that it's going to get better with that statistic.

Twiglets1 · 31/08/2023 15:49

KievLoverTwo · 31/08/2023 15:26

I agree. They're unlikely to stay at that forever. But when you remove the last 15 years from the equation, hasn't the average (massive peaks and troughs excluded) been about 6% for the last 100 years?

I certainly wouldn't commit to a 40 year mortgage in the hope that it's going to get better with that statistic.

I don't think you can just remove the last 15 years from the equation. And most sensible people only take out long fixed rates when rates are low. I think we can agree that mortgage rates are not currently low, yet even so, the average 10 year fix is less than 6.56%.

Also, I imagine most people taking out a 40 year mortgage are only doing so to make repayments affordable while they are short of disposable income and fully intend to shorten the term when their financial situation improves or inflation makes overpayments easier. They are free to remortgage over the years so won't stay locked into a high interest rate for 40 years.

As it says in this article, "The Bank of England is expected to continue to raise rates to a peak of around 5.75% by Spring 2024, from 5.25%, when they are forecast to fall over the next five years to just below 4%. The average 10-year fix is around 5.86%".

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/money-mentor/article/mortgage-rates-uk-news-will-they-go-down/

Will UK mortgage rates keep going down in 2023? - Times Money Mentor

Mortgage rates in the UK are near their highest level in more than a decade but fell during August. Will they keep coming down in 2023?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/money-mentor/article/mortgage-rates-uk-news-will-they-go-down

KievLoverTwo · 31/08/2023 15:54

Twiglets1 · 31/08/2023 15:49

I don't think you can just remove the last 15 years from the equation. And most sensible people only take out long fixed rates when rates are low. I think we can agree that mortgage rates are not currently low, yet even so, the average 10 year fix is less than 6.56%.

Also, I imagine most people taking out a 40 year mortgage are only doing so to make repayments affordable while they are short of disposable income and fully intend to shorten the term when their financial situation improves or inflation makes overpayments easier. They are free to remortgage over the years so won't stay locked into a high interest rate for 40 years.

As it says in this article, "The Bank of England is expected to continue to raise rates to a peak of around 5.75% by Spring 2024, from 5.25%, when they are forecast to fall over the next five years to just below 4%. The average 10-year fix is around 5.86%".

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/money-mentor/article/mortgage-rates-uk-news-will-they-go-down/

The BoE seem to be absolutely terrible at predicting what they need to do and when! You might as well ask a crystal ball what'll happen to interest rates.

Twiglets1 · 31/08/2023 15:59

KievLoverTwo · 31/08/2023 15:54

The BoE seem to be absolutely terrible at predicting what they need to do and when! You might as well ask a crystal ball what'll happen to interest rates.

It's not just the BoE predicting interest rates will peak at 5.5 or 5.75% though.

I think from your posts you are very risk averse and often talk yourself out of taking action because of worst case scenarios. But that strategy in itself carries risks.

I hope this doesn't come across badly it's not a criticism just an observation. I know I'm the opposite end of the scale and tend to think things will work out ok when in reality they don't for everyone.

KievLoverTwo · 31/08/2023 16:00

Twiglets1 · 31/08/2023 15:59

It's not just the BoE predicting interest rates will peak at 5.5 or 5.75% though.

I think from your posts you are very risk averse and often talk yourself out of taking action because of worst case scenarios. But that strategy in itself carries risks.

I hope this doesn't come across badly it's not a criticism just an observation. I know I'm the opposite end of the scale and tend to think things will work out ok when in reality they don't for everyone.

It's okay, you're not the first person to say it.

Also aware of the risks. But - no offence taken.

Twiglets1 · 31/08/2023 16:15

KievLoverTwo · 31/08/2023 16:00

It's okay, you're not the first person to say it.

Also aware of the risks. But - no offence taken.

That's good no offence taken, thank you for being so reasonable.

XVGN · 31/08/2023 16:19

KievLoverTwo · 31/08/2023 15:26

I agree. They're unlikely to stay at that forever. But when you remove the last 15 years from the equation, hasn't the average (massive peaks and troughs excluded) been about 6% for the last 100 years?

I certainly wouldn't commit to a 40 year mortgage in the hope that it's going to get better with that statistic.

Obviously, there are loads of different deals depending on LTV's, fixes, discounts, fees, income levels, etc, but it's reasonable to compare the BoE BBA Mortgage Rate over time. Today's rate looks normal prior to the GFC.

House Prices
KievLoverTwo · 31/08/2023 16:21

Twiglets1 · 31/08/2023 16:15

That's good no offence taken, thank you for being so reasonable.

:)

It's borne of a 20 year long anxiety disorder. Your rational brain says: don't be ridiculous, you can cope if the cost of everything goes up, look at the silly income! Then the irrational part comes by, sucker punches it to the gut and says: BUT WHAT IF THINGS GET REALLY, REALLY BAD.

It's been a rough 2-3 years, which just makes it far worse.

One day it'll go back down to almost normal. In the meantime I accept it for what it is: part of me that's annoying and can't be switched off. At least I have the ability to recognise that it's not very rational these days. That's a good start.

It does make me far, far more risk adverse than the average person. People reading my posts should understand that it's not really normal behaviour (and if I could get rid, I would). Most people just trust that they could cope in a crisis. My anxiety won't let me.

And no, therapy doesn't work. x4. Nor do meds. x many. I just have to ride out the 'crazy.'

XVGN · 31/08/2023 16:22

@KievLoverTwo sorry about your cat. We have had similar vet bills with our dogs.

KievLoverTwo · 31/08/2023 16:24

XVGN · 31/08/2023 16:22

@KievLoverTwo sorry about your cat. We have had similar vet bills with our dogs.

How is he/she now?

uh... well we did about 8k in vets bills over 2 years. And now we have no cats at all :(

(ofc I had insurance, who paid 80% as and when they eventually felt like paying us back)

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