House Prices

[LGBirmingham]

House prices still seem to be rising? Does anyone else think this?

In a way, supermarkets do use all sorts of tricks though. They advertise items as “reduced” that were only sold at the higher price for a few weeks. Then repeat the same cycle over & over.

They charge more for exactly the same items in different branches even within the same city and reduce the sizes of items while keeping the price the same & all sorts of other tricks.

Yes, and we're rightly hot on the Supermarkets for it. But here, the price was never higher so it is impossible to be called a reduction.

No one is 'jumping on you' when you mention him. It just seems a little odd when you have been very clear, on several occasions, that you dislike him and do not value his opinions. Anyway, no need to say anymore about it as it obviously upsets you.

It's ridiculous @XVGN, clearly false advertising and the regulators should clamp down on it. Unfortunately, they don't seem to care.

You are @rainingsnoring no one else to my recollection

It’s technically correct to say it was reduced in July. But I agree, it’s morally wrong to use tricks like that to give a false impression.

Pretty hypocritical when you have felt the need to pile in several times when I was disagreeing (politely) with other posters. You were happy to ignore their rudeness and personal insults and laughed with them simply because you agreed with what they were saying and disagreed with me. You have also accused me of being from HPC (incorrectly) several times and had at least one post deleted. If you don't like being criticised, stop doing it to others or stop complaining!

If you remember, I have previously suggested that you don't read my posts as they clearly upset you. Perhaps you could try this and not reply to what I say and I will do the same. I think this is the best way to resolve this situation.

You tagged me @rainingsnoring so pretty hard for me not to read your post but sure, please do ignore me in future and I’ll do the same to you.

@XVGN that is EXACTLY what supermarkets do lol just on a smaller scale

Seriously, they don't. I have never seen a supermarket show a price as reduced when it has never been higher. Do you have any examples?

That was natural wage inflation/general inflation, part of the normal cycle, the rises since the early 2000`s are caused by cheap lending, we have a long way for prices to unwind if lending stays at normal (historical normal) levels.

As someone else posted, next year 200,000 people a month coming off cheap fixes............that is going to hurt and it may even cause a recession, it is far too early to call (you keep trying to draw a line under price drops though for some reason?) yet the effect of higher rates on house prices, I think the price drops will be substantial until people can borrow again at manageable monthly payments.

Crashy, what do you mean I keep trying to draw a line under price drops. I have said many times I expect them to fall further in 2024 by about another 5% so I don’t get your meaning?

Interest rates dont go from near zero to pushing 6% and only produce 5% drops, I think nearly everyone posting understands this, but it takes time, you spend a lot of energy telling people that mortgage rates are dropping (they are still way up on a couple of years ago) and that prices will only do tiny drops and then stabilise etc. It is almost as if you dont want people to wait for cheaper property! The situation in the Middle East is getting worse, and horrific as it is people need to also think about the inflationary effects and prepare for much higher mortgage rates IMO.

My view is we have will have roughly a 5% drop throughout 23 and the same in 24 so that’s a total fall of about 10% as you know as I’ve said it before.

I don’t care if people wait for cheaper property or not, that’s up to them. The choice of when exactly to buy is often very nuanced and depends on an individual’s circumstances. I don’t personally see the sense in people deliberately waiting until prices start rising again as it’s better to buy in a buyers market. Up to them though, and prices are still falling in most areas so there’s certainly no hurry to buy at the moment.

I tell people fixed mortgage rates are dropping because they are, that’s the truth. I get lots of “thanks” from people reading that thread so I know some people at least appreciate it. They are still high compared to previous rates beginning with a 1 or 2 but those rates are long gone so many homebuyers see it as relatively good news now if fixed rates are falling even minimally compared to them rising. It wasn’t long ago that people like you were telling people mortgage rates would carry on rising into 2024 so I think some people do appreciate hearing an alternative view especially when factually accurate.

The thing is @CrashyTime the sad truth is that just because normal people can't afford to buy doesn't mean the market will correct to allow them to. I really struggle with why you would not find supply and demand to be relevant together with the fact that housing is essential. Owning is becoming something only the rich can afford. 100 years ago it was the same, there was a small historic blip when ownership was achievable, desirable homes were built at a reasonable level in pace with population and social housing was available. That stopped happing half a century ago.

How do you see the price change history on rightmove?

On the front page third item on the top banner is 'House Prices'. Postcode helps.

You need to use the Chrome browser and add the Property Log extension. Any serious house hunter should go out fully armed!

Yes it would be really helpful to see how many price drops properties have had. I guess it doesn't track those that resist the house several times without dropping prices though?

With sales down about 50% and recent mortgage applications down around 40% the price falls need to be a lot more than 10% for the market to return to anything like historical norms for transactions, watching stats put out by VIs on tiny numbers of transactions is just putting the head in the sand Im afraid.

If sales have dropped 50% and mortgage applications are down 40% (it will be more next time) where do those people live? And if rents are down 20% in the South West (if you believe my link up-thread) I can see the supply but where is the "demand"?

Rents are increasing in my area and house prices the same as last year, no sign of downturn here still.

Rental properties have multiple people applying, very stressful time for renters.

Sadly @BadCider the demand @CrashyTime was enquired about is shown here. People need homes and there aren't enough. Whilst there is no doubt transaction levels are low there also seems to be fewer desirable properties for sale. Those that pitch correctly and are a desirable type still sell quickly. I also think the market is extrenely variable across the country but essentially demand comes from the amount of people who need houses, supply is the amount of houses. It is fine if you disagree with me @CrashyTime

There is no doubt in my mind that house prices will not crash at all. As I have stated earlier on in this thread house prices will be higher in a few years than they are today. There is a complete lack of houses in this country and people need a place to live. I feel extremely sorry for people caught up in rent trap who are effectively paying someone else’s mortgage.

a long time ago I remember the house price crash forum and there were people who sold their houses back in 2007 because they thought the market was at the peak. They assumed they could sell for x amount and then buy back 50% cheaper (pocketing the left over). For years they thought prices would crash and suddenly a few years turned into a decade and now approaching 2 decades. All the things the economy has gone through house prices have been resilient.