House Prices

[LGBirmingham]

House prices still seem to be rising? Does anyone else think this?

@rainingsnoring @XVGN I forgot. Alex built a model using land registry data, something about looking back 25 years for patterns, and with massive anomalies aside (i.e., half the country suddenly getting a huge pay rise), the red line is where he anticipates house prices to get to by December.

Thanks @KievLoverTwo
His modelling is really worth looking at- v clever bloke.

Borderline bloody intolerable, but worth his weight in gold.

Anytime anyone wants to thank me for tolerating last night’s hour long posh boys absolutely cringe fest so you don’t have to won’t be soon enough!

Sky news today suggesting no drop is expected although market had been slow

https://propertyindustryeye.com/rents-fell-last-month-as-market-returns-to-seasonal-patterns/

According to this rents in the South West are down 20%, I don`t really buy into the "supply and demand" arguments, I think things are more sentiment driven.

Not sure why you have quoted something about rents.
What does that source say about house prices?

They do seem to be easing a bit now in the area I've been watching, outer NE London.

If rents are getting cheaper people will be inclined to wait longer in rental for proper house price drops.

Love how you’re all clutching on the LR lag as your final life raft. 😂

You don’t need to wait till next year. The Nationwide and Halifax indexes are nearly real time (matter of weeks since mortgage approval) and collectively cover virtually the entire mortgage market.

They also correlate extremely well with LR.

Also, I am fairly sure from your posts that you are “Charlie” from the increasingly desperate YT channel.

If so while spending an absolute bloody fortune in rent. The days of cheap rents in london are long long gone.

Nationwide and Halifax represent 30% of the UK mortgage market, they do not collectively cover virtually all of the mortgage market. 40% of homeowners have no mortgage and are buying with cash.

Perhaps you should Google my search history if you think I am Charlie.

One thing is for sure - he wouldn't waste as much time as I have typing this reply out to someone who deems to know it all but is really bad at trolling. Good trolls at least try get some data right to look a little bit credible.

You have proved my point - look at prices in 1990 and then 2000 - they were higher.

Not sure what point you are trying to prove exactly but if you look at the chart below (real house prices-UK), you will that prices fell significantly, and did not return to the same level until the early 2000s.
https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/5709/housing/market/

Well that escalated!

For some reason I’m not getting notifications on this thread.

I do think some people are starting to sound a bit desperate in their refusal to consider that maybe the fall in house prices won’t be as dramatic as once feared (or wanted, depending on individual circumstances).

Accept there is a lag but still… it’s nearly the end of 23 now and we’re not seeing huge price reductions generally, beyond a few hand picked examples that occasionally get posted as “evidence”. Which also comes across as a bit pathetic tbh because we could all hand pick certain property transactions to confirm our bias, but using the data from a handful of transactions isn’t statistically valid as I’m sure they know.

Perhaps you don't understand what has been posted @Twiglets1
It's actual data from the Land Registry website showing much greater falls in actual prices paid (raw, nominal data) than have been reported using their HPI index. You can always have a look at Alex Groundwater on twitter if it isn't clear to you.

I would agree with you that the falls have been slower than expected but they continue to happen and appear to have worsened. As I have said, I expect the overall falls to be v significant but can't comment on the time frame, which depends on so many other factors.

I do understand what has been posted and I’m glad that you agree with me that the falls have been slower than expected by those expecting- how did Charlie put it - a property market collapse

Your comment above suggests that you don't understand what has been posted though.
'we could all hand pick certain property transactions to confirm our bias, but using the data from a handful of transactions isn’t statistically valid as I’m sure they know'
Have a look on twitter as I suggested and you will see that this comment is inaccurate.
I'm not sure why you are quoting Charlie again. For someone who allegedly dislikes and doesn't follow him, you seem to know a lot about what he has said. Charlies makes some v worthwhile points and is helpful to many. Sure, he has his faults but he is no less accurate than many 'experts'. Obviously, he also draws a lot of criticism from those who are very frightened at the prospect of large falls in property prices too.
Just because something hasn't happened yet, it doesn't follow that it won't happen. Are you familiar with the film 'The Big Short'?

This is the challenge in this weird market. It appears that the house price transaction indices can increase even though the underlying house prices are decreasing. This could happen if bigger houses were transacting significantly more than smaller houses. Both could be falling significantly but the indices will show an increase. That doesn't normally happen.

To their credit, Alex and team have asked BBC Verify and Stats department to validate or refute their findings.

Just a quick diversion. Has this house price reduced, stayed the same, or increased? And would you feel you were being deceived if you weren't shown the Property Log detail? I've asked the ASA to look at this again.

My comment about the hand picked property transactions was nothing to do with the data posted, it was a separate point.

Please stop telling me that I should not be quoting Charlie - it is not to you to police who I quote especially when the rest of you have all been quoting him freely on this thread. I really don't need instruction from you on who I should be looking at on Twitter or who I should not be quoting. You're entitled to your opinion on Charlie that he is very helpful and I'm entitled to mine that his predictions were exaggerated for dramatic effect to get more followers, and will thus be proven to be less accurate than the predictions of more mainstream experts (not that he claims to be an expert).

Yes I am familiar with The Big Short and love the film. Can't see that the crash of the woefully under regulated sub prime property market in America is that relevant to the current highly regulated UK property market though.

Relax @Twiglets1. I didn't say you shouldn't quote Charlie. I said that I don't understand why you keep quoting/ mentioning him when you dislike and disagree with him so strongly.

I think you also misunderstand my reference to The Big Short. It was in relation to this: 'just because something hasn't happened yet, it doesn't follow that it won't happen.'

Agents/ contractors/ RM up to their usual tricks!

I don’t know if your question was aimed at anyone in particular @XVGN but my opinion is the house price has remained the same.

I wouldn’t feel “deceived” exactly, that’s too strong. More baffled as to why the developer hasn’t accepted they overpriced it at 725k seeing as it has been on the market since May.

Logically they should have reduced it to about 650k and kept it on at that price for a couple of months to see if it could sell at that price.

You jump on me every time I mention him and I would appreciate it if you would stop. I didn’t bring him up but he was being discussed by others so it was appropriate for me to join in unless you would prefer me to be silenced.

Of course it’s my issue that I object to being told what to do/what not do and should just “relax” 🙄

Open question for anyone. Yep, stayed the same is probably the most accurate. Increased is next most accurate and reduced is a downright lie.

Can you imagine the outrage if one of the major supermarkets advertised their prices the same way? But here, who cares about the odd £25K deception.