House prices predicted to fall by 10% in 2023

[MoHunter]

www.theguardian.com/money/2022/sep/28/uk-house-prices-predicted-fall-mortgage-interest-rate

Well that's a worry when we are close to exchange and completion on our next property!? 😭But I guess even in case of a reduction next year will likely recover again within a few years?
This will be our home for a good while, probably 10 years+ until children are grown. Sh*tting myself a bit but also desperate to move! Staying is not an option as I hate the town we live in.
Anyone else at a similar stage now worrying about this??

@Cybercynic - "Just the people with 5-10% deposit and those that bought recently may suffer"

Why might they suffer? The set of circumstances is actually much more restrictive even than the criteria you've described. For anyone to suffer, they need to have:
a) Bought at or near the peak, AND
b) Be heavily indebted (high LTV), AND
c) Suffer a major personal / career setback that means future income is irreversibly reduced to less than that needed to make the mortgage payments and other bills, AND
d) Have no other option but to sell during a trough

That's a pretty tough run of luck. And I've never said it can't happen - there are lots of very unlucky people out there - just visit any A&E department. But I do not accept that a tough run of luck that forces the hand of some homeowners means that every other owner will also suddenly think "One of my neighbours just sold their house for less than they paid for it ... I'd better flog mine too, and at an even bigger discount just in case there's nobody left to buy it off me next week!" In fact - I think that there'll be practically zero owners who behave that way.

On the other forum, they call this "STR" - Sell to Rent. Sort of a ballsy, gutsy 'bet the farm' minority who see themselves as demonstrating their anti-BTL, anti-HPI credentials. Not many of them did all that well financially out of their decision to sell and rent while they awaited the fabled crash they've been slavering over since that site started in 2004.

The long term trend will be that house prices rise. There simply isn't the supply that will mean an absolute crash.
They certainly will not become any more affordable to anyone who requires a mortgage if that's what certain posters are hoping for.

House prices have fallen 10% in 2022?
I haven't seen anything to suggest that this is accurate.

Interest rates are set to drop in 2024, which is handy because most people took out 5 year fixes between 2020-2022. Even those who took out two year fixes will be utterly unaffected.

We bought at peak in 2008 then had negative equity for a couple of years then years at what we paid. We stayed for 11 years and in that time it ended up making us 30k. Current home has gone up (in theory) from 290k in 2017 to 450k now. I’m expecting it to drop but it’ll still be worth more than we paid and we have a fixed mortgage so by the time re re fix in 5 more years we’ll have plenty of equity.

essentially, if you plan to stay longish term it’s not an issue.

This is the least likely situation, the sellers most likely to reduce prices in a dip are those who need or want to sell for lifestyle reasons (e.g divorce, death, debt or more kids, less kids) and will still make plenty on the sale, just not as much as they might have a year ago.

@DeadHouseBounce - bless you.

I literally CBA to go through the various arguments on here. Let alone the really irritating font crap that they employ all the time. No, it’s not ‘triggering” it just makes you look a twat.

I don’t really care what my house is worth. It’s my house - that is the most important thing. I didn’t but it to make money, I bought it because I wanted my own home. According to DHB, I’ve been sol a dud, with a truckload of debt and the bubble is about to burst. Meh, who cares about their opinion.

I love my home, I love my memories from my home. I will continue to love my home. Not because it’s making me money, but because it’s my home.

This. People are so obsessed with prices on paper which is what screwed things up in the first place. So many people buy a house already with the mind to when they sell, rather than what they actually love. It's so messed up and everyone loses. Just the other day there was a thread where person loved the house but then thought it might be hard to sell later on. I despair 😑

@Startwithamimosa houses are worth what makes a home.

The irony is that it's DHB who's obsessed with house prices. Those of us who are actual home owners have posted explaining all the reasons why we're glad we've bought, and DHB just goes banging on about how no, we can't possibly mean that, we're all just being thick. If only we had the perspicacity of DHB we'd recognise what fools we are, missing out on the absolute joy of renting...

Absolutely this. Long term renting isn't for me, I think it's a mug's game. I'm not planning on selling anytime soon so a dip in the market now won't affect me.
The only truth in property buying is the sooner you can do it, the better.

"Just the other day there was a thread where person loved the house but then thought it might be hard to sell later on. I despair 😑"

Sensible to consider whether you'll get your money back when you need to move somewhere bigger or nearer your new job IMO. It's your home but also the biggest purchase most people will make, so nothing wrong with considering whether that railway line or busy road that doesn't bother you, might bother buyers when you want to move on.

Yes, there isn't any official data to show this yet. Official data is many months behind the curve.
For example, I think it was Halifax data that showed a 2.3% fall in house prices in Nov 22. That would actually related to a much earlier period, sale prices agreed in approx. July/ August, completing in November. We will only see post mini budget effect in next year's data and December data next Summer.

This was a 2.3% fall against October's prices. And the November review said that average house prices were 4.6% higher than a year previous.
I'm not saying that prices aren't falling, just that there is nothing to suggest they have fallen 10% as you stated.
Certainly not what I have seen in my local area. I see less houses coming to market now and has been that way for a couple of months. Of course that is anecdotal evidence.

@Londongent - Sure, an annual rise and a rather rapid monthly fall.
Admittedly I don't have hard evidence from ONS/ lenders to back up what I can see/ read. I think this is likely to show up in figures but not for another 6 months or so by which time the market will have fallen further. Obviously, I could be wrong, time will tell.

Phew

No, saying things like renters get "no help" to pay their rent if they lose a job or trying to pretend that fixed rate mortgages only existed after a certain point to try and make your "Buying is Always Right" narrative work just telegraphs that some people on this thread know SFA or are so desperate to justify their decisions that they will basically say anything, either they are thick or they think their audience is thick enough to buy it?

Being an actual owner is one thing, you might just have to cut your asking price if you wanted to sell or something tedious like that..........but having hundreds of thousands in debt at rising interest rates is quite another thing, you don`t actually want to pretend that that is enjoyable for people do you?

Paying off my mortgage has been more enjoyable than paying off someone else's. HTH

What about those buying now, are they affected? LOL. Even for MN that is a dumb post.

Here we go …. The misogynistic mask is Slipping

According to you, nobody is buying and those that are buying a buying it to 10% discount so they can’t lose either can they ?

Paying off my mortgage has been more enjoyable than paying off someone else's. HTH

@freyamay74 honestly, Freya don’t engage any further

Im sure all the mugs with 100s of thousands of debt on basic properties are clapping and cheering with a tear in their eye at that news.