House prices predicted to fall by 10% in 2023

[MoHunter]

www.theguardian.com/money/2022/sep/28/uk-house-prices-predicted-fall-mortgage-interest-rate

Well that's a worry when we are close to exchange and completion on our next property!? 😭But I guess even in case of a reduction next year will likely recover again within a few years?
This will be our home for a good while, probably 10 years+ until children are grown. Sh*tting myself a bit but also desperate to move! Staying is not an option as I hate the town we live in.
Anyone else at a similar stage now worrying about this??

This!

How will it fall if people are not selling except those in desperate situations? The rate of growth will fall but don’t expect to see a house price crash. That is wishful thinking.

Supply will dry up. Who except the desperate will sell? And most people who are selling are buying. First time buyers are being priced out of the market because of the interest rates. So it’s unclear what will drive a glut of houses on the market and who these deep pocket buyers would be. Unless of course wealthy are benefiting from the misery of those forced by circumstances to sell.

10% at a minimum, 15% drop being reported in the press this evening. If it’s a long term move, it’s not worth worrying about, property always rises in the end.

Not a problem if you stay put. You won't be sitting there watching your house price going up, but you will be paying down your mortgage.
We paid £400,000 for ours exactly 5 years. In theory the value is now £575000 but its meaningless until you sell.

@Sheenqueen ''Who except the desperate will sell?''

Short-sighted.

There are always people who will sell because:

• They need to relocate
• They have growing families and not enough space in their current home
• They are landlords who want to get rid of BTL properties
• They are divorcing and need to get rid of the family home
• They are older people who need to sell to finance care or the home needs to be sold as part of someone's estate.

Add that to those who just can't pay the mortgage anymore and you have to accept there will always be properties for sale.

Life does not stop because there is a recession...

They're already falling. In the last few days alone a shit tonne of houses in my area are showing as reduced or they've come back on the market.

I'm not saying they will crash but they will drop. It's not realistic to say no one will sell, because some people will have to. Not to mention those who will have to sell because they can no longer afford their mortgage repayments.

''Who except the desperate will sell?''

Loads of people. They might sell for 10% less but then they will buy for 10% less so it doesn't really matter.

It's only those who are selling and not buying i.e. going into rented, merging two households or selling as probate that might see the house worth slightly less that it was a couple of years ago. But if you've owned it for several years then you will still no doubt see a profit. For everyone else it's business as usual.

House prices can fall though. They have in the past, and by more than 10%. How do you think that happened? And with wages under pressure due to general inflation and fuel bills going up, something has to give. The current situation, particularly if this recent budget doesn't get reversed PDQ, could put a very high downward pressure on house prices.

As I’ll be buying next year selfishly I’d benefit massively if f prices fall.
but I’ve been there and bought at the height of a market before, prices fell for a while and then picked back up again. If you’re buying a home for the medium or long term and you’re happy with the house, I’d still buy now.

The rate of increase will drop but not necessarily the price. Sold prices are nearly always less than the advertised price. Even the ones reduced might achieve the same price sold as those sold last year.

I think they are categorised as the desperate surely?

Actually the vast majority benefit if prices fall, first time buyers but also people moving up the ladder

The people not benefitting are those who sell after buying recently and arent buying anything else,, so have an actual loss.

You are expecting loads of desperate people to be the result of this crisis? I think the government will step in to avoid loads of people finding themselves in foreclosure.

I can’t see the Tory government losing its main voter base. Furthermore, an election is on the way in about 2 years time. To have any chance at winning they must bring about a massive reversal.

Not round here they aren't. Stuff has been going for 90 grand above the asking price.

If now is the peak and the prices fall by 10% then what would we get back to... early 2021 prices? More like an adjustment than a crash, innit.

But again that will only save the skins of those who are both out of work as happened with the previous scheme where they paid your mortgage for you as long as nobody in the household was working. So our household income went from over 100 grand to £27 because I was still able to bring in that quarter of our usual income we got no help with the mortgage obviously we did get some tax credits and that’s how we held onto everything.

but realistically in order to save the house you’re going to have to be on the bones, which means that you then won’t be able to afford anything else with current universal credit rates of £600 a month.

hmm never say never. It could be as bad as the 90's crash. Let's hope not, but it could be.

The 'stamp duty thing' is with £2500 to non FTB. I can't see it making much difference personally.

No, I am saying the opposite. I am saying it will NOT be only the desperate who sell, it will be business as usual and therefore loads of people will still be buying and selling.

It will not be business as usual because people who could have afforded a mortgage this time last week now cannot afford one.

None of this is remotely like previous recessions, so enough of this "we survived the '90s crash" balls. It's irrelevant.

And a housing crash is not good for a country that is almost exclusively afloat because of massively inflated property prices.

Business as usual?

If I find my dream house and can afford to ride the storm I would go ahead. Quite a few people have mortgages to port with good rates already.

If you like the house, can afford the mortgage repayments and are planning to stay for several years it doesnt matter. And over the longer term house prices will increase again - the demand for houses is always increasing and we as a anation have not been building enough new houses to meet demand for the past 20+ years so supply of hosues is limited

Price reductions are not good generally as it is indicative of wider economic problems.

People saying "only the desperate will sell" - have you not been reading the news? You seem to be assuming that the massive cost of living crisis + mortgage payments leaping + consequent jobs losses as vast numbers of jobs disappear overnight won't add up to millions of desperate people. Of course "only the desperate will sell" but you don't seem to understand how many people that will be.

And people saying "the government will step in"... Christ. a) where is this government going to get the money to prop up the vastly overpriced housing market on top of everything else they are trying to prop up and b) which parts of Truss and Kwarteng's tax cutting / let the market sort it out ethos leads you to believe they're going to be baling out your mortgage?? I can't believe how irresponsible people are on these boards. "Yes, go for it if you'll be there for years." NO. The difference will literally be paying off a mortgage for 20 years or 35 years. That is a fucking ENORMOUS difference.