Anyone noticed the market has changed?

[yaxe]

We are in the process of buying (have sold) & it was mad in March, lots of overbidding etc. I've noticed now reductions & stuff is staying on rather than going in a wk. It's making me a bit nervous tbh.

I see. That makes sense although it will still be affected by UK wide economic trends to some extent.

most buyers are second time buyers with large equity in house they are selling

Only if they can find someone to buy it. As I said mortgage tightening will likely impact those with small deposits, often first time buyers. If demand is reduced at the bottom of the chain, due to lending tightening, then it impacts those on the next rung up.

www.forbes.com/uk/advisor/mortgages/95-percent-mortgages/
hence the government guaranteeing up to 14.5% of the loan to reassure all the major High Street lenders that they should feel confident in lending 95% to first-time buyers.

@pastramionrye that’s insane!
But if your market has a lot of foreign buyers it’s probably very different
A large number of bubble tea shops have suddenly popped up in South Manchester, along with a lot of people moving from HK

I recently tried to look at properties in Sale/Chorlton/Altrincham but got told that viewings were full 30+ people. Viewings In the East Manc area however normal… I did have agents book me in and say to cancel as someone else would want the slot, but nobody asked me for AIP or anything.

@DomPerignon12

Funnily enough the agent today said that the massive influx of HK residents coming into the U.K. are mainly settling in 3 places - London, Birmingham and Manchester!

They prefer big cities - not just for the multiculturalism but also food (lots of Asian shops etc in Manchester). Education, good schools are important (although tutoring is very much the HK culture).
period properties etc are usually not of interest though, flats are usually what they’re after. Huge gardens etc also not really important.

I have lots of ex-uni friends + colleagues who are from HK so getting the inside scoop. The students who come here are very rich (quite a few of my friends had flats bought outright), the majority of ‘ordinary’ people of the current generation don’t own and never will.

*Not my friends bought flats, but their parents just bought them flats. ..

@DomPerignon12

The last viewing I did in Sale, 10 booked in, 2 cancelled last minute and 3 were no shows. It was a period property though, so maybe no interest to the HKers.

@hannahcolobus

I am getting this too. I think agents have over promised vendors to get the property to sell. I phoned up about one and was told that they already had a substantially over asking offer. I said I'd leave it then, as I'm in a good position c50% deposit, no chain as sold last year etc and they suddenly changed their tune and said there were some doubts about the offer they had being proceedable 😂

So you've viewed almost two houses a week for a year and you say lack of supply is the issue?

In a market town in the SE. Good state schools and commuter belt.
RM have sent me 3 alerts in 2 days of reductions. I’ve been looking since August last year and they are the first to come up.
An agent told me the market was ‘softening’…

I really hope it holds just another couple of weeks until we put our house on the market. We are South West, period property - so I'll report back! I think the EA has over-valued it, but he says there's still a strong market, so we will see.

99% London

Are you moving out of the SW then?

"One said even if we do get a recession and prices fall 10% it will then spur on those that can afford to move to do so when the prices are lower and then all of a sudden the cycle starts again and prices go back up"

A useful idiot who probably didn't experience the last proper crash in the 1990's. We did. House prices can go down big time and stay down.

He’s certainly wrong about people wanting to move.
But re.prices…
Plenty of LL’s are selling up. It’s getting harder and harder to rent, the ones that continue have increased prices. Those who can buy thanks to inheritance etc will still be looking to buy, and benefit from reduced prices. Not anybody who may need a mortgage though!

Over any long period of time (a couple of decades) prices will eventually climb back up but if you need a place to live a price crash isn’t really relevant if you can keep your job.

We weren’t actually planning to buy now, we were going to wait until I had permanent residency + more deposit but there won’t be much coming on in a recession and we might not get a mortgage, so brought our plans forward….

Over any long period of time (a couple of decades) prices will eventually climb back up but if you need a place to live a price crash isn’t really relevant if you can keep your job.

Funnily enough, I was looking at Japan House prices a few minutes ago. The index hit 180 in the early 90's and it is still only at 120 now. I wonder how many people buying 30 years ago thought that their home now would only be worth 2/3 what they paid.

Yes absolutely. 80+ houses viewed over 14 months. Not quite 5 a month at my reckoning and only cos I'm able to be on Rightmove every hour so see this things as soon as they come on. At least 80% of those houses have had an open day with about 15 other buyers also viewing and intial offers followed by best and final offers the next day. Most open days have a reserve list of those wanting to view. 90% of agents won't let you view until your provide proof of funds and SSTC status. Cash buyers and people who are chain free are always in the mix and their offers win the day regardless of how high we bid.

There are approx half as many houses on the market in our search area versus this time last year and way less than summer 2020.

When I bought my current home 10 years ago we were able to have a 2nd viewing before offering and got an offer under asking price accepted.

lifehacker.com/sellers-are-already-lowering-home-prices-in-these-citie-1849094355

This is the US. They have raised interest rates more sharply than us (increase of 0.75% in the US, 0.25% here). It may be an indication of what may happen here if the BoE increase by the expected 0.5% at the end of July.

There is actually quite a lot of positive in this situation

Firstly, strong due diligence by agents to avoid wasted time and energy and expense

and cash buyers generally tend to spend a lot more money locally, whether on tradespeople or restaurants and shops, as they have the disposable cash

You can't compare Japan to the UK. For a start, they're one of the few countries to have experienced almost 2 decades of inflation, very low migration rates (with a very closed culture), different mindset. Extremely large population decline, so clearly they have the opposite problem to the UK.

@NoFitStateMum

in your situation
you have a property that is clearly easy to sell but you are struggling to get buy because all going to cash buyer
and you have seen 80 plus properties (what a pain, must dominate your free time) and constant feeling of unsettled as on the look out for new home

i would sell, cheap rented and be a cash buyer

Not if said cash buyers are landlords :) whose tenants have no money to spend locally cuz it all goes on rent

Agreed
but upside to that is that it is homing someone who can’t afford to get a mortgage and buy.