Anyone noticed the market has changed?

[yaxe]

We are in the process of buying (have sold) & it was mad in March, lots of overbidding etc. I've noticed now reductions & stuff is staying on rather than going in a wk. It's making me a bit nervous tbh.

Its behinning to change here (west wales). still getting retirees from the south east buying up the only affordable family homes here so depressing. They bring nothing to the area apart from higher house prices and we cant find our forever home where we are bringing up our children and working

@Nothappyatwork 'Literally that there’s another thread full of screaming banshee‘s who are convinced that the sky is going to fall and we’re going to have a recession but I do think Mumsnet lives in a bit of a bubble at times and you have to remember that there are the majority of homes in the hands of people who don’t even have mortgages so they’ll be unaffected by all of this.

I would say the majority of my peer group in their 50s don’t need to work any more they do for something to do but if they stopped work tomorrow there would be nobody starving.'

I do hope you will have the grace to apologise to posters that you are referring to as screaming banshees and headless chickens, implying that they are catastrophising if the predictions of recession are correct.
Your peer group of well off people in their 50s is clearly not representative of the general population hence the negative stats on consumer and business confidence and spending that have been published recently. Plus warnings from heads of industry about economic risks of both inflation and recession.

For context, those screaming banshees were referring to comments made by Elon Musk, Jamie Dimon and Laurence Summers. All credible and worthwhile listening too, given their backgrounds. @Nothappyatwork wouldn't counter their arguments in a logical and structured way, so resorted to name calling instead. No one is saying the sky is going to collapse, just pointing out that the economy as facing some substantial headwinds and a recession is quite likely.

We received some emails from agents yesterday telling us that some of the properties in the area we are looking have just been reduced.

Also getting more emails from agents in general, that wasn’t happening even a couple of months ago.

It's still on the up here. Although the number of new houses on the market doesn't have the same pace.

I noticed that what’s on there has been sitting for a bit.
Not because anything’s particularly wrong, just because it’s overpriced.
A lot of people with no chain (inherited) so probably holding out for as much as they can get, now rushing to sell.

The fact that not one but two posters have pursued me around the board, which is actually against the forum rules but I’ll let it stand because it says more about them than me, to push their agenda and yes catastrophise the situation is frankly, I want to say hilarious but it’s actually just ridiculous.
The truth is Mr Musk et al, have been wrong before and they’ll be wrong again. The housing market has not been a true free market in over 20 years otherwise we would’ve had supply and demand dips, we would’ve had reaction to interest rates and it just has never played out as it on paper ought to.

I do have a Pollyanna approach to these things on the basis that we are all just living our lives and the vast majority of us will just continue to keep calm and Carry On no matter what happens. I personally do not think upsetting posters who were already having a sleepless night worrying about interest rates any further has anything positive to contribute to this forum or any other.

Nobody has a crystal ball and if I had one and I could actually predict for sure what was going to happen I wouldn’t be wasting my lunch hour answering this nonsense.

@Nothappyatwork

A lot of us with an interest in the economy are on multiple threads related to house prices. No one pursued you, you joined threads that we were already on and referred to us as screaming banshees.

Nobody is upsetting anyone, the internet is an open space. If anybody has anxiety issues the best thing they can do is delete their MN account

Ditto.
People have challenged some of your assertions and you have then made accusations as above.

"the vast majority of us WHO ARE RICH LIKE ME AND MY FRIENDS ARE will just continue to keep calm and Carry On no matter what happens BECAUSE RICH PEOPLE ARE LARGELY INSULATED FROM ECONOMIC TURBULENCE."

FTFY. It's easy to have a Pollyanna approach when working is optional and an economic crisis will remain theoretical for you.

@Nothappyatwork

I'm not sure of the tone of your reply? Were you being rude? Because I'm just repeating what 3 estate agents have said to me in 72 hours as we are getting valuations for our house to sell. I'm knee deep in the housing market thanks - seeing it first hand whilst trying to move myself

So happy that you and your peer group in your 50s don't have to work - nothing like a stealth boast there

What have the agents said, I really wanna know now
Also knee deep in trying to buy

@DomPerignon12

Agents all saying the same thing and it's making me feel really anxious about moving to be honest

• absolutely not allowed to view unless STC
• have to prove / provide written agreement that if the property is down valued that you can make up the short fall. Vendors will not negotiate or accept lower offer - they simply don't have to. One agent said their buyer had to get 4 valuations done before they found one that didn't downvalue as much as others.

They use these written agreements to give the seller so they can decide which of the 12 or more offers to pick. So basically unless you agree to pick up the shortfall you are bottom of the list of offers

• I rang about 2 houses today. Both 30 viewings booked in and they aren't accepting anymore. one I saw was listed Monday morning - by 9am this morning 9 offers - all min £40k over the asking price
• they have so many people who are STC on their own properties but haven't found/can't get an offer accepted yet that the backlog will take a long time to clear so don't foresee a drop in house prices or demand anytime soon
• my area has all the good schools. Commutable to major city - not London - but you can be in London in 1hr30. They are seeing massive influx of people moving from HK and so houses being bought without being viewed - one agent today said the forecast is 40,000 HK residents into U.K. in next couple of years.

Said they are expecting interest rates to increase 0.25 every month for next 4 months at least - i believe the BofE wanted a 1% increase this week but only allowed 0.25% so they'll just drop feed it through.
They said it will take a doomsday recession to stop this nonsense and even then demand still outstripping supply so prices won't fall - at best they'll remain static.
One said even if we do get a recession and prices fall 10% it will then spur on those that can afford to move to do so when the prices are lower and then all of a sudden the cycle starts again and prices go back up

The two postcodes local to me that I watch, have had 5 updates on Rightmove today. All properties being reduced. I'm noticing that more. The lowest price is £475k though, it's south east (highest one today is still comfortably over a million).

They don’t spend anything? Don’t eat in the restaurants and cafes for example?

These second homers - they don’t use local cleaners? Window cleanes? Tradespeople? Eat in restaurants?

they bring nothing to the area? 🙄

One said even if we do get a recession and prices fall 10% it will then spur on those that can afford to move to do so when the prices are lower and then all of a sudden the cycle starts again and prices go back up

Did he mention what he thought lenders reaction would be to all this? One of the reasons prices fell in 2008 was that lenders became cautious and tightened up lending, meaning only those with immaculate credit ratings, good employment history and a big deposit could borrow. So that curtailed demand because a lot of those people who wanted to move just couldn't because they couldn't get the mortgage they needed.

@pastramionrye

Agents are useful for their view on the market but a lot of them weren't around in 2008. If you do speak to an older, more experienced agent who worked through 2008, they will tell you that the market went from boom to bust in the space of a month because the mortgage supply dried up. And it didn't get going again until a few years later when the mortgage taps were turned on again.

What happens next really depends on how lenders react.

@Nothappyatwork

the majority of your friends are in there fifties and retired?

goodness that must be tough for you. Same age, still working, “not happy at work” to the extent that on a thread you recently started you said how very profoundly unhappy you were that you were considering jacking it it to take a minimum wage job to just tide you over.

Interesting that you say you plan to upsize in a couple of years though, when on a thread last week you say you have just bought a mid terrace and want some advice about the loft. So two stamp duties and moving costs. Intriguing

Me again. Just had another thought. It depends how the recession plays out, if we have a recession. If there are a lot of job losses then those people will also be unable to get a mortgage / remortgage. Again, reducing demand.

Very difficult to predict.

@pastramionrye - that sounds tough that your area is still red hot. Can I ask roughly which region you are in?
It sounds as if the agents and potential sellers have had a lot of chains fall through because of down valuations and want to avoid it. I have to admit that I wouldn't take their predictions very seriously. Some other areas have already cooled as expected. As interest rates rise still further and we hit a recession (very likely), some people will lose their jobs and others may feel insecure and change their minds about upsizing. These things combined with more caution on the part of lenders will mean that affordability is stretched even as the cost of essentials continues to rise. I don't see the house prices continuing to rise under those conditions. If you have a signifiant amount in equity and secure jobs, I would hold tight at present.

@IcecreamForAlcohol

Yes I was in a connected industry in 2008 so saw first hand how It changed overnight when mortgage lending tightened - my company made 50% of the staff redundant

The agents said in my area most have large deposits - this isn't really a first time buyer / 95% mortgage area now unfortunately - they are totally priced out so getting a mortgage and having a decent deposit isn't an issue here - most buyers are second time buyers with large equity in house they are selling plus massive influx of foreign buyers so largely protected from mortgage tightening. The only thing that will change is this "guide price" and "offers over" nonsense and vendors won't be able to demand that a buyer make up the shortfall in a down valuation

My house was valued at twice what I paid for it just 10 years ago 😳

@rainingsnoring
West Midlands so completion of HS2 will only fuel supply and demand issues 😩

@pastramionrye

There is talk of currency controls in China. That would mean that those HKers who haven't already got their money out would be prevented from doing so.

Again, who knows what the Chinese Government are up to.