Anyone noticed the market has changed?

[yaxe]

We are in the process of buying (have sold) & it was mad in March, lots of overbidding etc. I've noticed now reductions & stuff is staying on rather than going in a wk. It's making me a bit nervous tbh.

I treat 'hot' market reports with suspicion. Take Manchester for example. Go on RM, look at the last 14 days, swap between "under offer/Sold STC" and not. You'll see that only 10% of properties went under offer in the 14 days since being listed or having their price reduced. That's not hot.

Unless you are buying a "forever" home and have no concerns about future financial impacts of mortgage rate increases, utility bills, security of incomes, etc, you should wait for the upcoming price reductions. Don't do what Phil and Kirsty do and offer 10% over. They are paid to be daft - you are not.

Has it actually changed hands yet though?

@JuneJubilee

I agree. I think the impact of recent changes in interest rates and banks tightening lending (plus a possible change in sentiment) are going to be seen in the coming months as buyers realise that their monthly repayments are going to be higher than they thought when they offered (add in cost of living increases) and maybe start to revise their offer downwards. The other thing is buyers may have an AIP to make an offer but that's no guarantee that they can actually secure the mortgage for purchase, as banks have rapidly tightened up lending. If they can't secure their mortgage then the purchase won't go ahead. I think this will result in broken chains and SSTCs reappearing on Rightmove. It will be interesting to watch over the next few months.

Lots of reductions here , no bidding wars now thank god.

As I said earlier, in my area there has been more supply in the last couple of months and things taking much longer to sell. The higher end isn't really moving. One has now been reduced nearly 30% and still hasn't sold, others just sitting there. If I was them, I would have priced far less ambitiously from the outset!

People are understandably worried, not just about rising interest rates (the BOE has finally spelt out clearly at the last meeting that rates will need to rise further) but about the huge increase in the cost of essentials. Inflation may be 9% by the official measures but I think most people can see that the cost of essentials has risen by a lot more (housing, domestic energy bills, fuel, food). The CPI doesn't even include house price inflation. People on the lower end of the income range are clearly struggling but the wealthy with significant investments will have probably seen those fall considerably since the end of last year and be feeling much less confident in their wealth and much less confident in the general economic outlook. In addition to all this, the worldwide economic outlook is very poor and the UK is one of the worst placed of all. The Autumn and Winter could well see a dramatic worsening.
As well as reduced affordability, sentiment has clearly started to change and that will have a knock on effect on the housing market and other assets. It may be slower to change or change much less dramatically in certain areas but it will change.

@Nothappyatwork

Wait until you have secured the chain, The actual numbers don’t matter providing you are buying and selling in the same market

That's not correct. It only works if the properties are a similar price. If they are quite different then it makes a big difference.

10% change increase in price on a £200k flat is not the same as a 10% increase on a £450k house. Bigger gap for buyers to fund!!

RM is not really a reliable source for Manchester as several estate agents are leaving houses on RM well after they have sold. The market there is also complicated by the fact that there are houses for the let-to-student market which take longer to sell.

I am in the process of buying a house in Manchester, in reality, not looking at RM.

It's brutal.

@DomusAurea

Are you looking around Didsbury or Withington or Chorlton?

Crazy still round me. Houses going 30% to 50% over priced. Hardly anything coming in. Can’t even get viewings it’s so busy.

fDs has been outbid by cash buyers 6 times.

That's why I said to look at last 14 days only.

but if they’re going, they’re not overpriced.

What it means is that the demand is such that the market is willing a price that you personally regard as too high for the properties in question

you know a property is over priced when… it doesn’t sell

I have seen this question come up a few times but I have never replied direct.

always a tricky dilemma to but or rent in a school catchment location when you can’t find the house you like in that area.

As ever there is no one solution, as depends on the area and how in demand it is regardless of the economy.
also depends on the size of house you can cope with.
finally depends on how good you are at sticking to a plan and setting yourself timelines to buy. By this I mean. If you rent in an area for achool catchment and then don’t find a house that you like you could be renting for 12 to 18months. Maybe longer.
Then, the above all depends on your financial situation and ability to earn same or more in future.

The simple questions to ask are
is that the school catchment I want to be in?
if yes,

ok, can we buy a house we like?
if no,
can we buy a house that is smaller than we need but we can cope. Get rid of stuff don’t need etc
if yes, that’s good
if no
then rent is the answer. Once in rented, set a goal of when you plan to buy if that is you aim. Once your child is in school, you can move slightly out of catchment if that is an option.

I forgot to comment on the future of interest rates and mortgages.

I don’t know the future but with inflation high at the moment, I see a few more rate rises in the next 6 months to bring the BoE rate to 2%. Once this rate stabilises, the mortgage rate depending on LTV will be anything from 3.3% to just over 4%.

I expect it will cool and even see some house prices drop a little bit. Again depends on area.

we almost moved during the stamp duty freeze where the mortgage rate was 1.31% fixed for 5 years.
So a 250k mortgage over 30 years, the repayment was approximately £850 back then.
Now that 250k loan over 30 years at 2.99% is £1050, so £200 more.

also the increase in utility and foods costs is making us reassess our affordability limit.
i hope house prices dampen to take this into acccount.

They’re still going, and bids are still happening. But cash buyer trumps everything. So first timers still can’t get on. Too many cash buyers at the bottom end of the market. Vendors will accept lower cash offers than mortgage offers so first timers have no chance.

No slow down around me (south east). Houses are selling without even making it onto Rightmove & for colossal record prices over asking. Not only that, but they're being fully gutted & renovated too before the new owners move in.

@HikerSpiker - YES

yeh still doesn't make sense mate

Whereabouts in the South East?
Essex, Kent, or elsewhere?

SE London - far less coming onto RM over the past six months. I agree stuff that is coming on is hanging about for much longer now than it did at Christmas, but honestly I think at least part of that is that it is the same overpriced or odd houses keep getting withdrawn and re-listed.

The decent houses sell before they get into RM. We looked round one that went to sealed bids two days before it appeared on RM - if you’d waited for it to be listed, you’d have missed out.

I’ve just seen a house near me that went at 64% over the asking price in April near me.

And they are still hitting that on anecdotal evidence. The one opposite us went for 75K over it’s asking price 2weeks ago.

So no, not much sign of a slow down in my university city.

SW here (Cheltenham) and market definitely cooling. Nothing going within a few days and lots being relisted a month or two later.

Hey which are (postcode) r u talking about?

In well sought after areas (welathy), they hang on to assets so not much change their during recession

Yesterday afternoon 2 EAs phoned me about 2 properties that I bid on but lost out have come back on the market as the chains collapsed. They are back on at the same price which surprised me so I think it's changing near me (SW London). Thing is I feel more nervous & anxious too.

What postcode r u talking abt?