Rising unemployment in London Commuter towns could mean lower house prices?

[Desiringonlychild]

www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-53697256

Places with the highest rate of people moving onto Universal Credit since March

Guildford - 148%
Harrow - 142%
Kingston-Upon-Thames - 138%
Hemel Hempstead - 129%
Redhill - 128%
Stevenage - 127%
Luton - 126%
Bromley - 124%
Ilford - 120%
North West London - 117%

Almost all.the.listed areas are commuter hotspots or outer London suburbs.

It does sound like a big rise but some of those places had very little poverty to start with so even with all the new people on benefits, it’s still be a small proportion so might not have much impact on houses prices. Also, many of the new claimants might have had jobs in low paying sectors so they are unlikely to be house owners in these expensive places.

I suspect what looks like a huge increase is a reflection of the historically very low rates of UC in those areas.

Oh, and the ones of those places that were quite deprived already, have cheap housing anyway. So who knows... Maybe there’ll be a bit of impact but I wouldn’t expect anything massive as the market seems strong at the moment generally.

The housing market is not immune from recession. We are facing one and eventually the knock on impacts will be felt across the board.

Furthermore most likely the heat in the market is likely to be driven by the stamp duty and demand is high at the £500k and below mark. Many who will lose their jobs will be looking at properties in that range.

That said, no job in the private sector is safe. Anyone buying at the moment would have to consider this no matter how high your salary or senior your position. Often to save big bucks, companies will restructure and try to make savings at the top. No point getting rid only of a lot of the cheaper workers who actually do the doing. It will always be a combination of the cheaper labour and some at the top.

As far as I can tell these are relatively affluent middle class places so presumably had little UC previously.

@Cafemad in the article, the two examples they gave were indicative that it's not just a low/middle income problem. The photographer was probably a renter/buyer of a modest property but the property developer who is now considering UC is almost definitely a homeowner.

A lot of people with high incomes do own small businesses and their businesses have been hugely affected by covid..

I live in an affluent commuter town and have heard of many job losses. But there has been a huge shortage of family homes for years so I can only guess it won’t have a general impact although very worrying for individuals - hopefully short term.

@sunshinesupermum

As far as I can tell these are relatively affluent middle class places so presumably had little UC previously.

Ilford has two distinct areas..posh middle class is north Ilford..the south is quite deprived and run down..

I live in one of those commuter towns and the prices are going up. People are offering over and above asking prices. It’s crazy!

Prices won't drop yet though because the impact of job losses hasn't been fully felt, also the government has put in measures to help but that won't last forever, probably expect a fall next year.