House price crash

[FabulousSophie]

I've been having a horrible experience on a website forum called HousePriceCrash.com.
I happen to believe house prices will fall significantly, which is why I went there to find out more, but many of its members behave in such a paranoid and hostile way towards anyone who dares utter any dissent towards their very particular and obsessional group beliefs. They repeatedly accuse other members of being undercover operatives for the property industry - they seem to have a grandiose idea that they are so dangerous to the property industry that the industry wants to damage them by sending undercover operatives to 'troll' their forum. They almost seem like a weird religious cult that does not tolerate heresy amongst its members, or else they will be publicly degraded and excommunicated from their church.
It seems populated almost exclusively by men, I think. One of its members seems to have become obsessed with me in a nasty way, and even though I have never responded to any of his repeated public comments to me and about me, he won't stop pestering me. He gives me the creeps. I know it is only cyberspace but I still find him a bit scary. Does anyone else have any experience of this forum?

This is the beginning of the recession, we haven’t even begun to see the ramifications yet.
We have low unemployment mainly due to working tax credits and part time minimum wage jobs required to qualify for them. Minimum wage employment, zero contract hours and Uber Eats ‘gig’ workers aren’t the ones getting mortgages.
There are also more minimum wage paying jobs than people willing to do them. Many European workers weren’t eligible for furlough so returned home during the pandemic. Also many older workers in certain skilled professions retired early.
Recessions cause job losses and businesses will go bust. The scale of damage may only be realised well into next year.

"I think it's inevitable prices will fall a bit & likely stagnate for years. Its going to take a significant mind shift for people to accept paying more interest."

You wish! I dont think it has ever flatlined, it cant flatline from here people are too much in debt, it has to crash and burn with these rate rises. When you are renting the money that bought your house from the bank you don`t have the luxury of a "mind shift" and whether or not to "accept" interest rate rises, you either pay up or you are out on your ear.

I thought despite high employment, wages have actually fallen when you add in cost of living. Another worry about the lack of workers is the amount of people who have exited the job market due to ill health.

@DeadHouseBounce when I was talking about "accepting" interest rates I meant for FTBs, moving house as for the last 15 yrs taking on debt has been very cheap. I think that will impact prices more long term as so much has been driven by equity.

I don't wish anything, I already said I think prices are too high.

Yes, but you said prices would "stagnate", without FTB and "equity" they have to crash? You cant get your "equity" without a FTB/new borrower somewhere in the loop? People wont "adjust" to higher rates, property prices will "adjust", by crashing. It could happen as soon as Monday.

Not for everyone and that is the point you know if we’re not gonna feel the effects for the recession until Wellington next year I could’ve paid my mortgage off by then. Or at least made such a dent in it that whilst I won’t like making the larger interest payments to the bank it’s certainly not gonna be catastrophic. The changes with IR 35 I going to mean a significant amount of money is gonna be back in my pocket like 40% of my current salary.

and this is the trouble with these threads and in fact all of the threads that are harping on at the moment about the cost of living. I’m actually in credit now with my energy provider because the £66 government grant is more than what I will spend on this month on gas and electricity.

my direct debit is 50 quid.
there are so many variables in terms of people‘s situation that to be shouting from the rooftops the world is ending is absolutely ludicrous.

it may not be the worst thing if I can sell my flat for a lower price to a FTB to buy a bigger place at a lower price. It is the downsizers who would lose out but generally most people are not in a hurry to downsize (unless its for financial reasons and even then it often doesn't make sense due to cost of moving).

I would accept a lower offer if I can see that the flats I want are also coming down in price correspondingly.

"simply won’t be allowed to happen"

Why is it happening then? LOL

"The UK currently has the lowest level of unemployment since World War II.

@donttellmehesalive what’s your definition of a recession then versus an economists 🙄"

You can roll your eyes as much as you like but every post you make sounds less informed and more naive. In many ways, I hope you are right but don't think your optimism for 99% growth and low levels of unemployment during the upcoming recession are shared by many.

^^ exactly that.

that aside, how do people have the time for another forum??? MN gets all my forum time allocation (sorry)

@FabulousSophie just don't go on there, then he can't hassle you. They're not going to help you any, even if he was to stop hassling you.

Works if you have no or low mortgage, recent buyers are basically snookered if it all pops (it is all popping, I think when it is number one item on SKY "news" we all accept that?)

But it’s not happening is it ? They have been peaks and troughs in the market over the last 20 years. But if you want to these idiots that’s been on highest price crash since 2001 whingeing about the unaffordability frankly you could’ve paid your mortgage off by now. Even if everything dipped by 40% that’s still only 2008 prices hardly a bargain.

"Not for everyone and that is the point you know"

No that isn't the point. Of course not for everyone, that's obvious. But it doesn't have to be for everyone. It just has to be for a significant %. You sound like someone trying to convince themselves that you'll be ok. You might be, I hope you are. But for the housing market to falter you don't need everyone in the uk to be financially weakened, just enough.

@DeadHouseBounce actually I said they would & stagnate for years.... not all FTBs will be removed. I think the lower end will actually see the activity whereas the expensive houses & 2nd/3rd steppers will feel it in years to come.

Open coming recession ? you just said we’re in recession which is it make your mind up ?

@AuntSalli I think the point is it's about statistical data & wider trends/patterns. That doesn't mean everyone will suffer...

"But it’s not happening is it ?"

Come on Liz, shouldn`t you be getting ready for your speech this week.

"Open coming recession ? you just said we’re in recession which is it make your mind up ?"

Did I? Where?

on the other hand many recent buyers in 2020/2021 would be on 1% rates and would probably have fixed for five years. They have 3/4 years to overpay. Its those on variable and those who bought with a huge mortgage on a 2 year fixed deal (due to expire in 2023) that would be hit.

I do know a fair few people who stretched to buy in the last few years & bought on 2 yr fixes with the view that when it comes to remortgaging their LTV will have reduced as prices would have carried on growing. That will be tricky to navigate.

I think Liz actually wants a house price crash. Her economic guru said himself 7% rates in the long term is ideal. If rates are 7%, mortgage interest rates would be 9%. Most people are not cash buyers so even for those who have paid off mortgage or have a small mortgage, your property value would still be affected.

She also wants to axe all housing benefit. I think in her ideal Darwinian society, its survival of the fittest and who the fuck cares if millions are homeless. They can just go and die in a ditch somewhere. Their properties would be bought up by institutional landlords who will rent it out to the plebs.

But she is the PM now and we just have to do our best to protect ourselves from her. It is up to the Tory Party to oust her, not us.

I completely agree with you, she would love nothing more than to Hoover up all the assets and that’s why I was extremely careful during the frenzy of 2001 not to get caught up in it.

what’s really sad is the likes of dead cat bounce or whatever their bloody name is think that they’re gonna benefit from this miserable situation and unless you’ve got literally the cash in the bank to cover the purchase you’re not.

It is up to the Tory Party to oust her, not us

We might not have to wait too long.

Climb down or stand firm - what does Truss do next? www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63102820

tbf it would be better if interest rates were at normal levels.

If she does reduce HB, then all the slumlords will perish. Every cloud.