House price crash

[FabulousSophie]

I've been having a horrible experience on a website forum called HousePriceCrash.com.
I happen to believe house prices will fall significantly, which is why I went there to find out more, but many of its members behave in such a paranoid and hostile way towards anyone who dares utter any dissent towards their very particular and obsessional group beliefs. They repeatedly accuse other members of being undercover operatives for the property industry - they seem to have a grandiose idea that they are so dangerous to the property industry that the industry wants to damage them by sending undercover operatives to 'troll' their forum. They almost seem like a weird religious cult that does not tolerate heresy amongst its members, or else they will be publicly degraded and excommunicated from their church.
It seems populated almost exclusively by men, I think. One of its members seems to have become obsessed with me in a nasty way, and even though I have never responded to any of his repeated public comments to me and about me, he won't stop pestering me. He gives me the creeps. I know it is only cyberspace but I still find him a bit scary. Does anyone else have any experience of this forum?

[Nolongerteaching]

@BlueMongoose

lower prices don't help FTB if they are also paying a higher interest rate, for example.

I thought they did? On balance, it is better to have moderate to higher interest rates with a lower cost property than low interest rates with a high cost property.

[BlueMongoose]

@Nolongerteaching

@BlueMongoose

lower prices don't help FTB if they are also paying a higher interest rate, for example.

I thought they did? On balance, it is better to have moderate to higher interest rates with a lower cost property than low interest rates with a high cost property.

Depends entirely on how high the interest rate is, for how long it remains high, how big a deposit they have, what the inflation rate is for wages, etc. And if prices fall, lenders' valuations will too. Like I said, all other things being equal, it's better for FTBs to have lower prices. But as all other things are never equal, the real answer is often 'it depends'.

[DeadHouseBounce]

@Numbat2022

Ah, House Price Crash! I was reading that before we bought in 2016, as I was worried about a crash. We were risk averse and didn't buy until we could afford a three bed to stay in long-term and start a family, as we didn't fancy the risk of a house price crash stuck in the tiny flat we could have afforded early on in our relationship.

Since 2016 our house has increased in value by 100k (ridiculous I know).

Why don`t you try selling it, see if the money is really there?

[DeadHouseBounce]

The thing with property bubbles is that it depends where you are on the curve when it bursts, how much you borrowed is also important, jumping in with everything you have saved as people did during the SDH means you are now popping out of the other end of the debt tunnel into an environment where your debt costs a lot more, buying earlier might mean breaking even but no HPI profit on top depending where borrowing costs go. You can walk away from a rental but you can`t walk away from a bumper mortgage debt, thankfully rising rates will put an almost immediate stop to the more silly behaviour like bidding over to "win" a property and all that nonsense.

[HarpoBoy]

House prices round my way are up more than 25% since this thread began.

That's really got to hurt for the HPC nutters

[DeadHouseBounce]

@HarpoBoy

House prices round my way are up more than 25% since this thread began.

That's really got to hurt for the HPC nutters

Can you post a link or general postcode so we can follow with PropertyLog etc. as all those "gains" vanish?

[Hungrycaterpillarsmummy]

I asked an estate agent recently about house prices and she said she didn't think it would crash but the silly "offers over" ridiculous prices would vanish.

[HarpoBoy]

@Hungrycaterpillarsmummy

I asked an estate agent recently about house prices and she said she didn't think it would crash but the silly "offers over" ridiculous prices would vanish.

I can imagine the "offers over" situation is now likely to stay for another few months with this morning's tax giveaway

[Numbat2022]

@DeadHouseBounce

Why don`t you try selling it, see if the money is really there?

Because like I said, we're risk averse and bought a house for the long term. We'll stay here at least another six years, probably longer depending on the economy and our jobs and health at the time.

A house down the road exactly the same layout as ours sold for that in the summer though, so at that point in time ours was presumably worth similar. Of course that could change at any moment. It doesn't really matter so long as we can pay the mortgage.

[HarpoBoy]

@Numbat2022

Because like I said, we're risk averse and bought a house for the long term. We'll stay here at least another six years, probably longer depending on the economy and our jobs and health at the time.

A house down the road exactly the same layout as ours sold for that in the summer though, so at that point in time ours was presumably worth similar. Of course that could change at any moment. It doesn't really matter so long as we can pay the mortgage.

Sounds like a great plan Numbat2022.

Sadly, there will always be those unfortunate souls who just want to pick holes in your good sense to justify their own bad decisions.

[DeadHouseBounce]

@HarpoBoy

Sounds like a great plan Numbat2022.

Sadly, there will always be those unfortunate souls who just want to pick holes in your good sense to justify their own bad decisions.

There are going to be a lot more unfortunate souls who believed that houses always go up and rates always stay low, are you even aware of the interest rate/bond market moves that are going on just now?

[Nolongerteaching]

@DeadHouseBounce So, after Friday’s mini budget what do you think will happen next?

what impact could it have on the housing market?

[AuntSalli]

Every single time the HPC crew think the government will interfere no further, they pull something else out of the bag.
The last time the UK had mass repossessions, we had 20 million less resident clambering for housing, it is literally any governments worst nightmare for people to be losing their homes.

[HarpoBoy]

@AuntSalli

Every single time the HPC crew think the government will interfere no further, they pull something else out of the bag.
The last time the UK had mass repossessions, we had 20 million less resident clambering for housing, it is literally any governments worst nightmare for people to be losing their homes.

The public punishes governments that do not support the housing market.

In 1992 the Tories held on by a whisker, despite losing 40 seats, due to Kinnock's ineptitude, and Labour were evicted from number 10 in 2010 once the housing market collapsed as a result of the global credit crises.

Liz Truss knows this and will, quite rightly, do everything she can to keep the market strong.

We can expect a new "Help to Buy" scheme in the new year, if the rises in immigration and the reduction in stamp duty look like they arent keeping the market going.

[Smudgybuggler]

It’s different this time. Rates are rising fast and mortgage products are being withdrawn. The gov have lost control and only the well off with secure, well paid jobs will be able to access advantage mortgage deals. The rest will either have to sell and rent or be at the mercy of margin calls, ie they’ll be asked to top up their equity. Not nice when your house is falling in price. Endtimes

[AuntSalli]

@Smudgybuggler

It’s different this time. Rates are rising fast and mortgage products are being withdrawn. The gov have lost control and only the well off with secure, well paid jobs will be able to access advantage mortgage deals. The rest will either have to sell and rent or be at the mercy of margin calls, ie they’ll be asked to top up their equity. Not nice when your house is falling in price. Endtimes

Since the year 2000 I have been listening to why it is different this time every single scenario you can imagine I have been told it’s different 🙄

[Smudgybuggler]

@AuntSalli

Since the year 2000 I have been listening to why it is different this time every single scenario you can imagine I have been told it’s different 🙄

Watch and listen to what Jerome Powell at the Fed is doing and saying. Rates are rising fast. The Sterling 2 year overnight swap rate is now 5.5% and a year ago it was sub 0.5%. Mortgage rates will 6% + and rising in short order. The markets are well ahead of the sleepy Bank of England and Liz Truss’ gov cannot, even if they want to, borrow to prop up the housing market. Buckle up

[onthefencesitter]

@HarpoBoy

The public punishes governments that do not support the housing market.

In 1992 the Tories held on by a whisker, despite losing 40 seats, due to Kinnock's ineptitude, and Labour were evicted from number 10 in 2010 once the housing market collapsed as a result of the global credit crises.

Liz Truss knows this and will, quite rightly, do everything she can to keep the market strong.

We can expect a new "Help to Buy" scheme in the new year, if the rises in immigration and the reduction in stamp duty look like they arent keeping the market going.

If Liz Truss knew anything about the electorate, she would not choose to benefit the tiny percentage of people who earn in excess of £150k and shaft the rest. However, she may not last long.

[DeadHouseBounce]

@Nolongerteaching

@DeadHouseBounce So, after Friday’s mini budget what do you think will happen next?

what impact could it have on the housing market?

The sort of conversation that used to only happen on HPC is going out live on SKY tonight. The property market is toast from the sentiment hit alone.

[DeadHouseBounce]

@ChiaraRimini

Oh yeah, they've been predicting a house price crash for at least ten years. I remember a number of people like that on MSE. I think the market value of my house has gone up about 75% in cash terms since then!

LOL. Hope you managed to sell it some time ago?

[Nolongerteaching]

@DeadHouseBounce

could you explain more, pls? I’m trying to follow but getting lost.

if Truss goes, couldn’t they just reverse things?

[shhhhhhhhhhhh]

@DeadHouseBounce

LOL. Hope you managed to sell it some time ago?

But you need somewhere to live, and rents are soaring. Buying a house isn't neccessarily going to be a bad decision, even if prices fall. If you can pay the mortgage, in the end you will pay it off. I don't regret buying a house, the rent is more than twice my mortgage and I'm overpaying it with some of the difference.

I agree the rise in interest rates might actually mean it is different this time, I'm not sure it can be propped up again and at the very least it might stall further increases, I have been wrong every time so far.

[AuntSalli]

@shhhhhhhhhhhh

But you need somewhere to live, and rents are soaring. Buying a house isn't neccessarily going to be a bad decision, even if prices fall. If you can pay the mortgage, in the end you will pay it off. I don't regret buying a house, the rent is more than twice my mortgage and I'm overpaying it with some of the difference.

I agree the rise in interest rates might actually mean it is different this time, I'm not sure it can be propped up again and at the very least it might stall further increases, I have been wrong every time so far.

In this current situation if you’ve got a fixed mortgage do not over pay your mortgage you need to keep your savings fluid, if rates are indeed going to rise you want three months mortgage payments in the bank taking advantage of this new increased rate of being raised for as long as possible whilst you’re still on the fixed-rate pay in the lower amount.
once you’ve paid the money off the mortgage it counts for nothing if 12 months down The line you lose your job or you get into financial difficulty you’re not ahead with the payments if that makes sense and they’re still gonna want the minimum payments from you even if you’ve overpaid in previous months.

[LimboLass]

if Truss goes, couldn’t they just reverse things

Nope. The government are shit out of options and the mini budget was simply the crowning turd on this big mess. Their intervention in 2008 stopped house price crash then but only to kick the can down the road and create bigger crash when it happens. It seems like it will be happening very soon.

[Blossomtoes]

Excellent advice @AuntSalli. It really does feel different. Friday reminded me of Black Wednesday.