House price crash

[FabulousSophie]

I've been having a horrible experience on a website forum called HousePriceCrash.com.
I happen to believe house prices will fall significantly, which is why I went there to find out more, but many of its members behave in such a paranoid and hostile way towards anyone who dares utter any dissent towards their very particular and obsessional group beliefs. They repeatedly accuse other members of being undercover operatives for the property industry - they seem to have a grandiose idea that they are so dangerous to the property industry that the industry wants to damage them by sending undercover operatives to 'troll' their forum. They almost seem like a weird religious cult that does not tolerate heresy amongst its members, or else they will be publicly degraded and excommunicated from their church.
It seems populated almost exclusively by men, I think. One of its members seems to have become obsessed with me in a nasty way, and even though I have never responded to any of his repeated public comments to me and about me, he won't stop pestering me. He gives me the creeps. I know it is only cyberspace but I still find him a bit scary. Does anyone else have any experience of this forum?

@LimboLass

you really think so?

of all the mortgage holders in the country, I wonder how many are at that point where they have paid 40/50% off and could weather a storm?

70% of U.K. mortgage holders?50%

Whats to explain, the MSM usually bleats out simpleton economics interspersed with ads for debt and mortgages, all of a sudden people are being told their mortgage is going up massively and new borrowers wont be able to borrow enough for them to break even if they try to sell! Mortgages are no longer a cuddly happy thing that you need to have so people will see you "getting on the ladder", a lot of people are probably going "Whats a currency crisis?" A GE might help but the inflation is coming from Putin, China etc. and the rate rises are coming from the U.S, the UK is trapped and cant really do much. Can you imagine how much better people could ride this out if they didn`t have 30 year debts for basic shelter?

So, we’re screwed?

Nope, but it will be tough for a few years

See the new Nationwide fixed term mortgage offers. 5% and more. These are linked to the Sterling overnight swap rates not the Bank of England base rate. Neither The BoE and/or the gov can control this. Intervening with props or bailing out mortgage holders will make things worse, ie higher rates

www.nationwide-intermediary.co.uk/news/2022/september/ratechange?utm_source=NFI&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=13492978_NFI4788%20NFI%20Rate%20change%2026.09.22%20JF%20%2AAPPROVED%2A&dm_i=5KB,8178Y,R1B977,WV5V4,1

Nationwide new mortgage rates

My experience is this .

The first house I bought was just before the crash of the early 90s. For reasons I had to sell it and I had to borrow money to pay off the negative equity ( relationship breakup and OH refused to pay anything - I just wanted rid of the house and him

2nd house - I made sure the repayments were well within my means so that even if interest rates went up ( not to the 11% etc of first house ) I could ride it out

3rd house Lovely and I miss it but the mortgage was bigger - when DD went to university it was too big

4th house - it is a tiny worker's / artisan terraced house. I wish it were larger & as per previous poster , you would think you could buy something better for a few hundred thousand pounds but it is near shops & as my mother says , you can only sit in one chair at once. We have an office / pullout bed as a spare room & it works. But the monthly outgoings are very manageable.

So my advice is

Is your house an investment or somewhere to live. ? I think nowadays do er uppers don't typically gain money other than general house price inflation. But if you want to live there for a reasonable period of time and are prepared not to have everything perfect all at once it can work.

Be realistic as to what you want and what is on offer for what you can afford. My house has compromises - but most do . I do have friends who won't compromise on anything and want a glamorous house.

If you can afford the house ( with a buffer ) and it suits your family you can probably ride out the ups and downs of the housing market.

That to one side - my sympathy for those who are finding it hard to get any mortgage at the moment

Just thoughts . I am refusing to look at what my house is now worth because I have no intention of moving. But never let the perfect stand in the way of the good. A friend of mine gave me some wise advice once about buying a house . Make a list of your 6 must haves. Then cross out 3 of them & see how you go - worked for us so far. Sorry if not entirely relevant but hope it might be of interest - will ask to be deleted if not

Nationwide is an Notoriously risk averse lender, other lenders are still offering 3.9% today to new customers now compared with 1.6 last year admittedly that’s terrible however it’s still within the realms of affordability for most people.

The facts of the matter of my mortgage could double and I would still pay it. I would sit in the dark, the cold and I wouldn’t eat but the mortgage would get paid and I think that is most people‘s position.

I stupidly listened to HPC forum back in the day and fixed for 5 years as they got me quite worried, just as interest rates were cut heavily. They go around trying to cause panic and are best ignored. Having said that things are obviously going to get difficult and it is sensible to be cautious at the moment but ignore the warnings of Armageddon from HPC.

Going back to concerns expressed in the original post, I think the HPC spies on here have proved the point that they really are a hostile and deeply negative bunch.

Reading some of the misogynistic rubbish over there, many of them could also fit into this category

Agreed. Everyone I know personally can afford their mortgages at significantly higher rates than are being predicted. No ones overjoyed about it, but that's economical cycles. My sympathies go to those who have some unforseen hardship.

Caveat, yes I despise what cheap credit has done to the cost of housing, and I'm happy to see prices fall.

Having looked again at my mortgage, once my fixed rate ends and Ive significantly reduced the capital, I could withstand a rate of 40% and still pay it. Or just pay off the balance. Upsetting that must be for the House Price Crash Forumers.

Sounds like the average married couple with a big jumbo mortgage. Not sure what would be gained from "spying" on here, a good laugh maybe?

Why would anyone be upset by your personal situation? Anyone who "significantly reduced the capital" on their mortgage could pay a rate of 40% on it but the majority of people are not in this position so your situation has absolutely no connection to the wider market! LOL.

Well, some people are.......if they over-borrowed into the biggest property ponzi in history and didn`t set up a cash fund for overpayment/extra mortgage payment when the inevitable happened...yes they are in deep trouble.

Sounds like someone needs a girlfriend

Did you set your alarm for 8am to think that one up? LOL. In other news The Express now calling a 40% crash, ironic after all the years of headlines designed to pull stupid people into the property Ponzi. A 40-60% crash would certainly re-set the clock and get banks lending again.

Is this the same Express that claim Diana was murdered or living in Bermuda ?

I don’t think house prices will crash, although they will probably drop a bit. The majority of house owners will be able to withstand the next couple of years, and interest rates are predicted to settle around 2% in the next year or so which isn’t huge. A large % of home owners are mortgage free, another large % in long, low fixes and another large % earn enough to withstand the extra costs, as another able to temporarily pay it until rates drop and settle. Many of those who can’t afford it will be able to extend their terms, leaving a much smaller proportion having to sell. Everyone else will put off selling and stay out until things stabilise unless they really need to sell.

we have a large mortgage but have just fixed for 5 years at a reasonable rate. Even if we hadn’t, we could have afforded a temporary increase even if it was another £600 per month. We are in our early thirties, expensive area in the south east and it’s the same situation for everyone we know, all our friends can afford this too. There’s a lot more money around than some people realise.

Where did you read 2%?
The Netherlands just recorded 17% inflation. It’s over 10% in US and UK.
Historically, interest rates are higher than inflation. The only reason they are not today is that governments across the world can’t afford high interest rates, so their plan was to inflate the debt, and our wealth, away.
Fortunately the markets have other ideas. They don’t want to see their assets erode at 8 to 10% a year, and neither do I.

Why would it be a temporary increase, how long until we see 3% mortgage rates again?

@C4tastrophe

Fortunately the markets have other ideas. They don’t want to see their assets erode at 8 to 10% a year, and neither do I.

This is what makes me think they will bring on a crash, knowing that some areas will be able to withstand the aftershock and gradually move back upwards leaving other areas behind.

2%, LOL.

I doubt the increase will be temporary, the super cheap debt to the masses experiment is over.