Housepricecrash.co.uk - what a bunch miserable buggers. Can I get some normal folks opinions please?

[DaddyCool]

.... and not some 45 old wally still living with mother and bitter because he spent all his money on model trains instead of a down-payment back in 1998?

Not a good cross section on there at all.

Is it going to crash do you think? Please give me your opinions. As far as I can see it's a 50/50 split on the nation's opinion but I would like to see how similar people to myself (parents with small children) think.

If this is your only staircase I think you might have a problem with potential buyers

what a great thread. i'm a proud man.

Yes, the people on there are a very aggro, bitter and at times neo-fascist bunch.

The even more sad thing is that it plays on the hopes and dreams of many more idealistic young people who know they won't afford to buy a house at present, and just live in hope of a crash.

The older cynics left on that site (let's remember it started in 2002?) don't really care that much about it - they mostly seem to enjoy the speculation and investing their money in different places.

Oh and on the actual question in the OP. No - I don't think they will crash. They are building countless flats, but people generally don't aspire to live in flats but houses.

I can see a grim future for flat values, but so many houses are owned already - the good housing stock has been bought up by people who no longer need to sell.

A spiral staircase would - and has done - put me off buying a house. Nightmare for furniture and dangerous for children.

Ok I haven't read the whole thread but I do work in the field and my opinion is that it will level off a bit but not crash as there is a demand for property in this country. Interest rate rises might make it uncomfortable for those who have been lent more than they should've been but it won't make it prohibitive(well not much more than it is now).

I also think that there is a definite regional effect. Some areas just are more desirable than others, my house has increased by about 10/12 percent in the past year but neighboring areas certainly haven't.
My mother has an excellent maxim, she maintains that a house is worth what you have to pay to buy one when you need to live in one.

I agree that most of the frequenters of hpc are saddos who are resisting admitting that they are wrong by sporadically spouting conspiracy theories.

It's hard to say. I remember the 1970s property crash not that I had a property then and then also the house we bought in 1990 then went down quite a bit in value, the years we sold two buy to lets at a 50% loss and then 1997 sold the 1990 house for what we'd paid for it because eventually the market had got back up - so yes these corrections occur but we haven't had ap eriod when prices have gone down and stayed down for the next 20 years have we? They've always eventualyl caught up so if you're playing a long game and likely to be in the market for 30 or 40 years and need a home just get on with it whatever the timing.

4 years ago when we divorced i was sure my husband and the money was getting out at the very peak of the market - everyone was predicting this crash. My brother had sold his flat and is still 5 years on renting until recently they decided the crash just wasn't happening and they'd lost out by staying out of the market.

hey, I've been singing from the hymn sheet for 3 years!

our circumstances mean we won't buy until w move area in 2009 anyway, but am really hoping we will get a lot more house for our money by then....maybe.

great post carmenere. yes, I think if you're in the long game which I will be, then its OK. I'm just greedy and would hate to miss out something if I bought a house only a few months before a correction in the prices.

There are rumours the conservatives might abolish stamp duty which if you're proposing to buy something expensive could be a material difference if you wait (and vote right of course)

If they do abloish stamp duty I think they will have to get their revenue somehow.I can see tax on profit when you sale along the lines of capital gain tax coming

No, the more you lower tax the higher the tax take - something Labour can't understand but Lawson did. And we could may be do something about quangos

Yes it will crash
Can't tell you when though!!
I'm surprised how many on here can't remember the last price crash (with all this talk about prices just staying stable I should add I'm too young to remember it really but can remember all the talk and news about repossessions etc)
The property shortage isn't as big as you all think a lot of that is myth put about by building companies (who incidentally are sitting on huge landbanks) in an effort to persuade the gov. to relax planning regs. Lots of soft markers of a bubble round here (40% price rises over 1 year how can anyone seriously want to work for eg 5 extra years to pay that off). I can have my choice of any one of about 8 overpriced houses just in my neighbouring 3 streets alone. Was talking to a local estate agent recently and he said no one buying buy to let at the mo. is making any money they are all gambling on capital appreciation (over 500K for a 2 bed flat above a shop just what capital appreciation are they thinking of).
However it won't crash unless something changes what that will be I don't know, could be something as simple as GB getting in, there have been threads on here asking how much interest rates have to go up before it really bothers people (no uniform answer obv. but the general concensus is not a lot!)maybe the gov. will replace stamp duty with taxing BTL income pre deductions? (difficult to object to that) maybe they will tax overseas landlords? who knows.

Yes hpc are a bit miserable and yes it is very sad if someone sells their tulips whoops I mean house based on an internet site but there can't be many (any?) who would do that we don't know their motivation/personal circs.

oh and for all those who think I'm being mean remember you've only made money on a house when it is in the bank and you no longer need a roof over your head and you've only lost it if you are forced to sell in a falling/fallen market! If you live in it and are staying put it can be pretty immaterial

daddycool - are you back in warks now? how much do you have to spend and shall i find you a house? PLEASE......

Daddycool did you intend to go for ever or just a year? Shall we all look for a house for you?

I too love property porn even more when it's not my money.
Also was looking near my Mum recently and couldn't help but notice that EVERYTHING was advertised as being chain free.

i went on a different property forum to ask about mortgages etc. and I had a spurt of people bitching about how the banks shouldn't offer to lend us so much money as it drives the house prices up, makes things impossible for 1st time buyers etc...some of which i agree with...but it seemed like such a fierce attack on a newbie. Kind of like mentioning early weaning on mn!

I don't really care whether banks are helping people get into too much debt. We are all adults and i personally would never borrow more than we could afford to pay...I certainly don't represent debt riddled britain.

As a buyer and a seller, I doubt any impending crash would make too much difference.House prices are still rising in our area, and obv if our home lost value, the houses we are wanting to buy would lose value too. as it stands we have increased our house value by 200% since we bought 4 years ago (it was a hole though!)

Also need to point out generally folks are better off in a high interest rate low price enviroment than the one we have now (when it comes to buying houses anyway!)

Exactly and it makes me when people say proudly "oh my house is worth x or has gone up x % in the last few years". I don't get why people think house price inflation is a good thing - it's not, it's not real money, unless you sell up and downshift which after all not many of us want to do. Most people want to buy a house, improve it a bit, stay in it for a few years and then later on buy another house when our families are bigger. If the value of the original house has gone up by x% in that time we are no better off in real terms because the next house we want to buy has also increased by x%. Unless of course you are a property developer, but even then I know "ordinary" people who have been lured into buy to let as a supposedly rock solid investment and are now struggling to cover the mortgage repayments and agents fees. My parents first house cost them 3000 and they sold it 20 years later for 80,000 but did they have any more disposable income or were they any better off in that time? No. The only way they would have been better off is if they had sold it and moved into a mobile home!

The only time that prices have crashed in this country was when interest rates briefly hit 15%. That was when interest rates were controlled by the Government. The cleverest thing Gordon Brown ever did was pass responsibility for the base rate to the Bank of England itself. They have no political motives - they just want to keep a lid on inflation.

House price rises may slow or even stop, but there is such a shortage of housing in the south east - particularly family sized homes - that it's hard to see them falling.

By questionname on Sat 12-May-07 00:51:03
'Also need to point out generally folks are better off in a high interest rate low price enviroment than the one we have now (when it comes to buying houses anyway!)'

The reason that's such a BAD thing is that people on fixed incomes such as pensioners suffer very badly.

No... lower interest rates are better in the long run, even if it does shore up house prices artificially.

Low interest rates are not a good thing in the long run as they do encourage people to over stretch themselves as we are all blinkered by the monthly payment at the time rather than the bigger picture.Most people when rates are low still borrow to the absolute max they can pay monthly.I agree with they grumpy buggers who say prices are going to come down.

Daddycool - we have owned properies since we bought our first house in 1995. Prices back then were at rock bottom after the last crash in 1993/4.

Every year since, we've heard stories of doom and gloom about immenent crashes but they never happen. Prices do "stabilise" or "plateau" but the interest rates now are relatively low compared with the 14% interest rates of the early 1990's. Also, whilst there is a housing shortage its unlikley prices will crash.

As long as people are prepared to pay and can get mortgages, the markey will sustain itself IMHO. In the south, it is propped up partly by city bonuses, which keep pushing the prices up in desirable areas, which then has a knock on effect etc.

As long as the better off have money to spend and there is a supply shortage I really can't see the market crashing...