If Corbyn becomes PM will the property market crash?

[StuckRut1]

Looking for guidance on this. I'm looking to buy a flat in zone 1 and when l mentioned to a colleague he was aghast. He said that l should wait till the New Year as there's a chance JC will be PM and if so the property market will crash big time. Is he talking rubbish?

I pulled out of purchasing a z1 flat last June due to Brexit. According to land registry data it's finally gone for -22% original listing price and took > 1 year to sell

But like the couple of houses near me in theory they could be sold for about 22% less than original asking price. It doesn't mean house prices have fallen 22% it just means that the original price was 22% over priced

You are quite correct, of course. And I would agree that it was a little over priced to start with.

However I know the block very well, and indeed owned there for a decade already. For identical square footage and in spite of a spanking new renovation and quieter block position than mine, it still went for over 100K cheaper than I sold for 2 years previously. I'd call that a significant price drop. There are currently other flats in the same block which are reduced to less than my sales price of (>) 2 years previously as well, so it's not a one-off.

This is an area of London favoured by bankers and mgmt consultants so may be disproportionately affected by the anticipated impact of Brexit compared to other postcodes...it was also hammered on rental and capital values in the financial crisis of 2008/9/10 whilst I was renting it out and unsuccessfully trying to flog it.

Latest from Halifax - "The rolling quarterly figure, which measures changes over the previous three months, fell by 0.1%. It is the third month running that figure has fallen - the first time that has happened since November 2012"
Meanwhile BREXIT looking like a right old mess.

Yes

Are you not buying a home? if you want an investment then I think property prices in London are already going down (well they are around by me) - but it doesn't bother me as I have home not an investment - which hopefully will be paid of in the not too distant future - no more monthly payments - so better than renting!). No sure what this has to do with JC though - more likely the tories and their mad Brexit referendum ?!

Isn't this a bit of a self fulfilling prophecy?
If enough people hold off on buying because of uncertainty, then nothing is going to sell, so prices will have to go down?

Garden Geek are you sure you've achieved the lowest price you could get? Unless it's an outstanding property I'd go at least 20% below cheeky asking price...

I've been watching Rightmove and zoopla for a year (we're selling & plannng to buy again). I'm looking at the family home prime market and at WC1, EC1 and N1. Nothing goes.

Properties reduced gradually, loads of them get taken off the market. Then pop up again... I just stumbled upon loads of properties I looked at last summer...I was wondering where they'd gone...turns out they came back to the website On the market. It's a joke.

Prices last summer were well over £1000/square foot...now I see more and more below that even. I'm not investng my hard earned cash into a falling market.

Sounds like your new home isn't in central London then, which is very wise Garden Geek, I haven't followed that market but have a feeling that many buyers try to get away from the crazy prices in the centre so I have a feeling you'll be just fine. good luck with the move then and enjoy your new home.

StuckRut - The reason 2007 was a blip rather than a crash was because governments and Central Banks massively intervened in the ''free'' market... to prop prices up and kick the can down the road, printing hundreds of billions £, slashing interest to ''emergency'' levels and introducing all sorts of schemes to ''help'' people to buy,

All it's done is delay the consequences and create an illusion of normality by injecting massive amounts of debt into the market.

Personally I have looked at some places in London where 1 bedders were around the £500k mark and thought they were unachievable especially when just 1 postcode or 1/2 mile the same sort of thing was going for £150k less. I thought there would be an adjustment but that is all. Like the house that don't sell around me it isn't that the price has fallen it is because they were over priced in the first place.

I think atm there are hours and flats that are completely over priced. I thought there were prior to June 2016. I also think there is a wobble because no one knows for sure how BREXIT is going to effect everything. As soon as it is completed and we have a new reality I think it will level off.

If you need to move and are planning on staying for a few years then get the best possible price you can and move. Otherwise with the expense of moving and the uncertainty in the market I would stay put unless you found an absolute bargain. They are about but may need work and are usually gone to the first viewer before try have left the premises

Actually a property market crash is predicted as a result of current policy. It's a nice try to try to pin it on corbyn before he's elected, but of course this obvious tory tactic just indicates the Conservatives confidence in Corbyn for PM

Property market crashes are forecast every year.

It think one "expert" sold his house and moved his family into.rented waiting for the bottom to fall out of the market. Only to see prices shoot up then crash but not back to 2002 prices

Biggest issue will be when the interest rate rises.
brexit will mean less people coming in to the country so less people looking for a roof over their head but the silver lining will be that there will be less people in B&Bs and first time buyers won't be priced out of the market.

In theory...

I'm a labour voter and love JC, but why on earth do people think by some magic of the universe he's going to become PM?

Because of polling results like this one (conducted last week) and profound discord in the Tory party which may prompt another GE.

I'm not a Labour supporter (am LD before anyone shoots me ), but this research result is not a one-off.

Of course, things could change at any time, but if someone can't afford the downside risk it's certainly a scenario worth considering IMHO, given challenges already posed to the London housing market with respect to BTL taxation changes and Brexit.

Looking at the latest GE results, Cons gained 42.3% of the votes, and Labour 40%

Apparently this was the closest vote since 1974.

I keep having to look it up because it is such a surprise to me, and the opinion polls had forecast a big tory gain.

Mrs May's hold on power is very tenuous, and the minority tory government is quite shaky, so (yet) another election is not unlikely, and if the younger people continue to take an interest, a change would not be a surprise.

It's my opinion that the younger citizens decided to get out of bed and start voting after relative apathy let to them being taken out of the EU by the more active older voters.

You can see how frightened the tory supporters are by the way they've been constantly denigrating Mr. Corbyn.

The only thing more frightening would be buffoon Boris in no. 10, but Murdoch is pushing Gove.

Couple articles from this month from Estate Agency Today regarding 1) the prospect of CGT being introduced on profits from primary residence that I raised earlier on this thread www.estateagenttoday.co.uk/features/2017/6/forget-stamp-duty-reform--theres-a-new-tax-on-the-horizon
and
2) Foxtons company outlook (which is largely driven by volume of transactions and London-focused so considered a decent indicator of stagnating market outlook) www.estateagenttoday.co.uk/breaking-news/2017/7/foxtons-to-face-tough-second-half-of-2017-says-city-analyst

And this without yet the spectre of Corbyn

PigletJohn raised a really good point about info source objectivity earlier, and I have to say it's sources like this one - a trade mag for EAs - that I take more seriously than general newspaper doom-mongery...

the prospect of CGT being introduced on profits from primary residence

would mean more and more people wouldn't sell their homes. Why would they if most of the money was taxed.

They would either leave them empty or have children or relatives put in them.

If CGT was charged would that mean you could get your mortgage rates water rates gas and electric against tax. Seems like a recipe for the rich to get richer and the poor to get poorer.

If supply and demand governs house sales wouldn't the lack of housing stock just raise the price

Where would those that don't already own live.

The US has CGT against a property sale and it doesn't cause problems with volume there. There is an "exclusion amount" for example, a married couple are allowed to make $500k profit from the sale & pay tax on any gain after that. It would allow HMRC to slap a heavy tax on foreign owners and investors who have profited from UK property (they might not be granted any "exclusion amount"). Not unusual to have such a tax.

"If CGT was charged would that mean you could get your mortgage rates water rates gas and electric against tax."

I must say it's a bit eccentric, not only to make up policies that aren't in the manifesto, but to go on to add special terms that you've just invented.

Stuckrut- do they have the equivalent of stamp duty too?

I think it's unfair to have to pay the gov when you buy and sell your house

I was just responding to another post and wondering how that would work.

No stamp duty but Mansion tax, mortgage tax, New York transfer taxes....l would not be in favour of CGT generally but for non-residential buyers perhaps ? Stamp duty already unfairly affects London buyers.