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If Corbyn becomes PM will the property market crash?

108 replies

StuckRut1 · 29/06/2017 15:46

Looking for guidance on this. I'm looking to buy a flat in zone 1 and when l mentioned to a colleague he was aghast. He said that l should wait till the New Year as there's a chance JC will be PM and if so the property market will crash big time. Is he talking rubbish?

OP posts:
howabout · 29/06/2017 18:38

Lots of people did pick up bargains but loads of people also ended up sitting on negative equity for years. If there is a crash the banks will be very happy to lend to anyone with a decent chunk of equity, which it sounds like you have, but not to anyone without. Also I think I am correct in saying there is a lot more equity in the London market now than there was in the 80s due to people sitting on gains over last 20 years and cash buyers. This I think means the chances of people cutting and running are higher now rather than not being able to afford to sell. This gives the potential for a downward spiral but that would be quite a pessimistic take.

PunjanaTea · 29/06/2017 18:42

From my experience house prices don't suddenly drop by extreme amounts when a market crashes. The number of transactions starts to fall or in some cases the market stagnates and prices fall gradually over a period of time. The market will begin to pick up either when finance becomes more readily available or when prices are more in line with incomes, or a combination of the two.

The London market did seem to be massively over heated and prices are way out of sync with incomes so it really does seem ready for a correction no matter who is prime minister.

CallingPeopleACuntOnFb · 29/06/2017 18:49

Don't work for a newspaper. Flattered though. Genuine question

Lol. Don't be flattered. I doubt it was a compliment :)

Whats the big fear about house prices falling anyway. They need to. And I say this as a homeowner

Atenco · 29/06/2017 20:29

Maybe a property crash wouldn't be so dire if people were allowed to just hand in their keys to the bank and walk away from their mortgages as is possible in the US? Unfortunately in the UK, negative equity can mean that people end up without their home and still owing a fortune to the banks.

Toriali · 29/06/2017 21:38

Most Londoners on here are struggling to sell ATM. If I were you I'd wait a bit and not lumber myself with an overpriced 1 bed flat... There's a real danger of negative equity.

Just think about all the luxury flats "pouring into the market" in the next couple of years...I wouldn't touch the zone 1 apartment market with a barge pole these days...on this fact alone. (Not even taking into account the political situation, uncertainty, brexit, and speculations of an interest rate rise.)

AndTakeYourHorseWithYou · 29/06/2017 21:43

He seemed to think the PM will be gone in October after a party conference or something

And replaced by another member of the same party. You know, how Teresa got to be PM?
Don't you have the first clue how your politics work>

OCSockOrphanage · 30/06/2017 15:11

Housing markets are fairly cyclical. When I bought a one-bed flat in London in 1987, I couldn't sell to move in 1990, so I let it for over a decade. But when interest rates were 15% for quite a long period, I had to top up the mortgage payments for several years, as well as having routine maintenance costs like replacing white goods, renewing carpets and redecoration between tenancies. It all worked out.... eventually, but caused more than a few sleepless nights during voids.

TalkinPeece · 30/06/2017 20:10

Corbyn will not knacker prices
hard brexit will

sall74 · 30/06/2017 20:45

Hasn't JC mentioned state backed mortgages?... Which is even more of a market prop than anything we've had so far (HTB etc)

Despite his socialist principles it seems he's just as keen as all other politicians and policy makers to keep the house price Ponzi scheme going.

TalkinPeece · 30/06/2017 20:46

THe USA has had state backed mortgages for decades - and they are not the most socialist country in the world

BubblesBuddy · 30/06/2017 22:23

I think there are a number of economic indicators that are being overlooked in a number of posts.

The huge amount of borrowing by the British public is nearly back at pre 2008 levels. This is not sustainable and the banks will have to rein in lending. This always affects prices when finance dries up. The Bank of England is trying to ensure banks have sufficient reserves to withstand a crash.

Secondly, lots of people from the EU are beginning to bail out and new people are not necessarily coming in. This will mean there is more property available than buyers.

We have the additional anxiety of Brexit and well paid people in London paying a lot more tax and ditto the companies they work for if Corbyn gets in at some stage. This never promotes confidence and usually leads to property values decreasing. The difficulty is knowing when this will happen.

In the early 1990s loads of homes were repossessed due to unemployment and the fact that people could not pay mortgages due to rising interest rates. They will rise again. We are at an all time low at the moment. It will not last. Negative equity only matters if you need to sell. You sit it out if you can.

It may well be that prices need to drop but if people pay higher tax, have no pay rises and their companies struggle due to Brexit, price drops may not help much.

TalkinPeece · 30/06/2017 22:26

rising interest rates. They will rise again. We are at an all time low at the moment. It will not last.
They may rise but not above 2% in the next 15 years or so.
THere are no drivers that would cause rates in Europe, Japan or the USA to rise to the old "norm"

Ageing and declining populations are the new "normal" and nobody has data sets for them ...

AwaywiththePixies27 · 30/06/2017 22:31

He said that l should wait till the New Year as there's a chance JC will be PM and if so the property market will crash big time. Is he talking rubbish?

Your colleague is talking bollocks.

howabout · 01/07/2017 10:02

It may well be that prices need to drop but if people pay higher tax, have no pay rises and their companies struggle due to Brexit, price drops may not help much.

People in zone 1 property market have already been paying more tax with no pay rise for the last 8 years.

House price multiple to income is what matters in this analysis. Long term average is about 4 but with low inflation and corresponding interest rates you could maybe at a push argue for 8. Current rate in London is 20, so not sustainable or affordable imho.

BubblesBuddy · 01/07/2017 10:50

It has been affordable though because of high earnings in London. If the prices were not, there would not have been the building there has been or sales. These have also been fuelled by people from abroad where there may be no link to earnings here at all! Thee is every reason to think interest rates will go up. Clearly the Bank of England is getting jittery about inflation and levels of borrowing. This will push up interest rates and inflation will go up because of the amount we import at poor exchange rates. Housing is all about supply and demand. If demand falls, prices fall. The difficulty is judging how far demand will fall and Brexit probably influences this a great deal in zone 1 because of where people work and who they work for. The City is also pretty jittery. London never mirrors other areas of the country regarding property price/wage ratios. It is a different bubble with a life all of its own.

BubblesBuddy · 01/07/2017 10:53

Plenty of people in London could buy a 2 bed flat in zone 1 for £500,000. Many do earn £50,000. So that is 10 times. Not 20. I am not saying that it is affordable but it is not 20 times.

howabout · 01/07/2017 13:55

Cheapest area is Whitechapel where average 1 bed flat is £575k.

www.homesandproperty.co.uk/property-news/buying/zones-13-for-firsttime-buyers-new-report-reveals-cheapest-postcodes-to-buy-onebedroom-flats-a101881.html

The average home price is closer to £1m, depending on borough.

Many do earn £50k but the median for central London is under £40k iirc.

BubblesBuddy · 01/07/2017 14:54

Elephant and Castle is cheaper. The people earning the median do not buy in zone 1. It has been like this for many years. It is not recent. People commuting to London from the Home Counties is hardly new and obviously provides cheaper housing. Two salaries of £40,000 gets you quite a lot in Aylesbury for example.

maryso · 01/07/2017 15:12

Affordability is always important, and for a long while prime zone 1 has relied on there being far fewer homes than people earning well over median. There was no pause in London from 2009 to the peak in 2014. Homes are still pricing at the same 2009 to 2014 trajectory for lots of motivational reasons most people can work out. They are rightly struggling to sell.

Interest rates are the key, although Brexit may reduce the gap between number of homes and high earners. When rates fall from 6% to 1%, it's tempting to think you can afford more. You however can afford the same place at an inflated price, because everyone can, so you just end up paying more for the same, as you bid each other up. Of course the rungs on the ladder also become further spread so you have to pay even more.

Last week the BoE asked our banks to increase their reserves by £11 bn, and tightened mortgage lending, reflecting increased debt default risk. They are remarkably shy of touching interest rates, even now when the US has signalled clear intent. After all Mr C is employed by HMG... Most people can probably also work out why our leaders might wish to mimic Japan's economic fortunes, however there we are.

If by some hitherto unseen good judgement, our leaders do the right thing for future generations, rather than mimic Japan, those who have increased debt through choice, rather than grabbing the decade of opportunity to clean up their financial lives will have to settle the bill when it arrives. Those who have been helping out for 10 years by paying the bill for others' debt lifestyle choices cannot be expected to weep too much.

TalkinPeece · 01/07/2017 15:58

The people earning the median do not buy in zone 1.
Median means half of all people earn less, half of all people earn more.
Did Grenfell Tower tell you nothing about the number of poor people living in Zone 1 ?
Half of all Londoners earn less than £26,000

Half of all people in the UK earn less than £19,000

BubblesBuddy · 01/07/2017 16:33

I am talking about people who are buying homes - not those renting off the Council who will never be able to afford a home and frankly, even 50 or 100 years ago, never could. That is why we had Council houses and flats in the first place. History tells you quite clearly that this has been the case since the first council flats were built in the 19th century. Do not muddy the waters with Grendel Tower. It is not relevant in this discussion. The relevant info is that there are not enough homes to rent.

TalkinPeece · 01/07/2017 17:03

But many homes in Zone 1 are being bought by overseas investors as savings accounts.
Interest rates will have no impact on them.
Only a land value tax would bring that back under control.

There are over 500,000 empty homes in the UK
and 1,000,000 second (or third) homes.
Deal with that and many of the problems diminish significantly.

OliviaStabler · 01/07/2017 17:11

JC will never be PM. Ever.

Don't worry.

AndTakeYourHorseWithYou · 01/07/2017 17:15

Keep telling yourself that. You can add it to all the "He won't last 5 minutes/won't get through an election/Labour won't get a vote with him in charge" and all the other bullshit predictions you all like to make.
He keeps on defying them all.

Corby for PM: very popular idea.

AndTakeYourHorseWithYou · 01/07/2017 17:15

Corbyn. dyac.