What month will the property crash be obvious in?

[roneik]

Not doom but a question, and I would like to hear some opinions

I reckon by july

You mean, fall in real terms.

Fairycake,in answer to your question
I'm interested in what you think the effects would be if there was a massive house price crash?end quote

If there is a housing crash this time it will be different, I think there will be bail in's . I also believe it will necessitate the government intervening and taking charge of the buy to let sector. I believe they will requisition all failed buy to lets in order to keep people housed.At least two of the big banks will fail and this time they will not be rescued. I believe also that the bank 80k guarantee will take years to fully compensate the people who had money in those banks.
At the moment the biggest threat to housing is Russian economy failing IMO

I am getting tired of hearing it wont crash, it already is crashing. It just has not been long enough or obvious enough for people who have seen nothing but increases to digest.Wait until another month or two and I bet my predictions will mainly be right. I cant guarantee it but have good track record of predicting what is not in the minds of others.God help us all

Whooh there to person saying people who took out NR's 125% loan are now positive equity.

In the North, and probably a lot of places outside of London/SE, prices in nominal terms are still around ~2004. And the number of transaction have fallen off the cliff.

A lot of areas are seeing the number of probates exceeding the number of transaction, which have been at 50% of expected transactions for over 10 years now.

As you mention NR, have a look at the Newcastle LR sales figures:

houseprices.io/?q=ne1&p=4

Again, outside of London/SE, the best way to describe the property market is 'stuck'. Come IR rises, you see a massive rush to exit positions.

Yes, London/SE is different - its way. way more leveraged than the early 90s.

So leveraged that it may very well cause another banking crisis IMO
That list is interesting .

State media today say's house prices will rise next year
Computer say's no

Roneik banks will not be allowed to fail. You aren't being realistic. Interest rates will increase but not significantly over the next few years. Some people may find their mortgage payments more difficult but there won't be wholesale repossessions. A bank would rather renegotiate a mortgage than repossess and have to sell.

This isn't to say house prices won't stagnate a bit or fall a small amount but a crash isn't going to happen.

Banks will be allowed to fail. Have you not been reading the news over the last few years? A few will be allowed to fail to get the message across.

IRs can rise higher and quicker than you expect. Look at Russia.

I don't think there will be a bail in. Cyprus was special - a lot of the bank creditors with dodgy Russians and so could be plucked.

The UK economy is fundamentally different to Russia so the comparison isn't relevant.

Which banks will be allowed to fail? Rbs and Lloyds are owned by the government. Barclays? HSBC?

It will never crash.

The govt and BofE have categorically stated that banks will be allowed to fail if they are irresponsible again which is why they are being told how much cash to have in reserve etc But I can't see how people are going to be attracted to making deposits when IR are so low so seems an impossible task

I buy a fair bit of property and can see that things are definitely slowing.
I don't htink there will be a crash, but I do think prices will level out and fall in real terms.

That will only really effect those who have bought property for silly money in the last couple of years.

Bail in act came into effect 2013 for UK, and other EU countries have similar

www.gov.uk/.../bail-in-powers.../bail-in-powers-implementation

Littlebear if Russia defaults the whole of the European banking sector will reap the whirlwind , and quite possibly the US too

Where I live there are not enough houses. There is also a limit on where new homes can be built, due to green belt. There could even be MPs standing to protect the Green belt at the next election.
All that happened in the "last crash" was that prices rose a bit more slowly.

Since the Stamp Duty change, prices have increased a bit, because 1M is now not such a psychological barrier.

My DC are unlikely to live here, and we wouldn't be if it wasn't where the well paid/interesting jobs for DH were.

However: we have always considered if we lived in a home which was sufficient for our needs then prices didn't matter as long as they matched other properties in the area. For us to have lost money on the house we live in how, its selling price would have to more than halve from where it is now, and I guess most other places would fall too.

Which bank will be allowed to fail? It looks like the Co-op at the moment.

Followed by (guesses): Santander (UK) + Yorkshire Bank.

There have been several building societies that have been 'taken over'/flipped to another building society over the last few years. I doubt this practice will continue as their books tend to have massive holes in.

Mummytime. In the last crash (89-96) prices in the SE fell ~50%. I knew someplace where the loss was 60%. In other places it took until 2003 before nominal prices recovered their 88 nominal peaks. In the North you will have currently have nothing to show for the last 10 years.

Sitting it out is only possible if you have paid of the mortgage and keep your income.

As this is parent based forum, the biggest change I see will be changes to tax credits and public sector employment. At my kids school, I would guess ~50% of families receive the bulk of their income from tax credits and more than 50% of have one or both parent working in the public sector. I do not see either continue for very long esp. as we running ~8% deficit and our national debt is rapidly heading towards 100% GDP.

The rich/poor divide will continue to grow and us working "poor" will find that multi generation living will be the norm - as it used to be!!!

oswellkettle, well I had a good chuckle at your comment "it will never crash" It is crashing now , just in first gear time to change up to second gear any time very soon. Never say or think never, people and markets cannot be predicted in such a way.A lot of Londonia must want to take the money now that they are looking out from their ninth floor council flat they bought and thinking " what the F@@ck let me out now " They could end up with a property that is unsaleable and worthy a fraction of today's ramped price.

This time next year you will be thinking "how did that old git know"

I dunno. I have seen two property "crashes" - one big one and a correction. So I think people think, Well, prices may be down for now but I'll ride it out because they'll rise again, or - I'll whizz in there and buy something going cheap - but they won't be going cheap because loads of people will think it an opportunity to get a btl.

Mummy time the last real crash was in the early nineties.

Stamp duty will not stop the crash , they are measures to try and keep the crash at bay until after the election.
As I have said before the government acknowledge HPI and low interest rates are holding the economy back, Stopping social mobility.Frantically they are trying to rearrange the deckchairs to keep the boat afloat for the vote, but the thing is out of control now. It's crashing

You sound derranged. Now remove that large chip on your shoulder and walk tall

hereandtherex, hey that is one good post there and you have nailed
a hell of a lot into such a small space. My day has been made by such a common sense post
I lived in the SE at the time and the carnage for ordinary working young couples was heartbreaking.Seeing them lose everything. As said before some never recovered from it

How will people live 'multi-generationally' when their own folks have not been able to buy or rent a large space or they need to move miles away for work?

kilmuir, is that all you have to contribute eh?
I wont even bother to reply to your insult as you do not sound too bright.

Are you over leveraged and in fear? if you are you have good reason to be

Perhaps if you wrote sensibly rather than dubbing yourself the 'SEER', London, Londonia etc then Kilmuir's on the nose post wouldn't have been added....

Why are you so certain the big crash is due soon? What shock are you expecting then you think will hit in July?

I see no political interest in putting up interest rates. I don't see a UKIP win at the next election to push out lots of immigrants and push down house prices. I see none of the 3 main parties having policies that would mean BTL landlords would start dumping properties. I don't see a massive coucil house building scheme.

what do you think will trigger it? not that house prices are high compared to wages, that's been the case for a while and in itself won't bring down prices.

What will happen in June/July to cause a crash?