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What month will the property crash be obvious in?

528 replies

roneik · 10/12/2014 21:24

Not doom but a question, and I would like to hear some opinions

I reckon by july

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roneik · 18/12/2014 17:01

namechanger. it will affect us because the Russian oil industry has borrowed heavily from UK banks, if they have to default that will have consequences for our banks. It will also affect Euro zone economies that are already at the door of deflation
That's was one of the causes of 20/30s depression

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Hedgehogsbuzz1 · 18/12/2014 17:14

Of course the markets slowed by 9% October/November time. It always does because no one wants to move at Xmas.

Saying that I've no idea what the market will do. I however suspect Roneik is desperate to get on the ladder if it does crash. From memory there was a very clear drop 2007/2008 and that would have been a great time to buy. Our area sits at top 2007 levels (pre crash) now.

Xmas Grin
roneik · 18/12/2014 17:22

Nobody can move more like

Banks wont give mortgages on dream home 1 bedders in tooting going for quarter of a million quid (ONLY)Xmas Grin In tower blocks even .

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roneik · 18/12/2014 17:27

2007 you haven't got your flax capacitor set right (back to the future)

What are your plans when you arrive at 1992 ?Xmas Grin
Will you start giving jam sandwiches on a small table by the gate to entice buyers?

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Hedgehogsbuzz1 · 18/12/2014 17:35

5 sets of friends/relatives I know are all waiting till January/February or April to put their properties on the market. In fact over the years I don't think I've personally ever met anyone who's put their house on the market In November!! It's almost always January to September.

Hedgehogsbuzz1 · 18/12/2014 17:38

Would you like me to get in my time machine and list every dip pre 2007? Xmas Grin.

Badvocinapeartree · 18/12/2014 17:40

We bought our house in November.
It had been on the market for a day.

LaurieFairyCake · 18/12/2014 17:41

It's not a house price crash when it's not 'real' money

If you're sat in your London flat for ten years and it's gone up a million quid and it loses a million quid you can still move out to the same place you could afford ten years ago - ie. A big fuck off place

There is nothing to worry about

roneik · 18/12/2014 17:45

Nah when it hits it's got to be worth all of 65k
It's over Xmas Grin

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roneik · 18/12/2014 17:48

Not real moneyShock

If that's the way people see it we are truly f@@KED

It's all gone to pan eh? I don't think so somehow.

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LaurieFairyCake · 18/12/2014 17:52

Of course its not REAL money!!!

It's only money when you sell and even when you do other places have gone up the same

No one has done anything to earn this. Even if I slid into negative equity I wouldn't care providing we didn't lose our jobs

It's somewhere to LIVE, it's our home

roneik · 18/12/2014 18:06

Ha ha you really show economic ignorance there

Look your house is only worth at (ANY) given time, what someone will pay.
If you just sit in it till they carry you out it's worth whatever someone is willing to pay at that time
Someone will have to pay or borrow (real money)
So it is real money , in your case you like gloating maybe at what it might be worth at this time. Meanwhile it's fa@@ked up the economy, and any chance of many thousands if not millions of others ever being able to buy.

People taking out mortgages they cannot service is one of the reasons the banks went down. Also why QE had to be implemented which has harmed our economy ,and people into poverty even if they are working in many cases

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roneik · 18/12/2014 18:12

Remember Northern Rock giving out 125% loans with virtually no deposit
Tell me was that real money
Banks have the debt on their balance sheet when the shit hits the fan. That affects the banks us and our children
Stop this madness not real money

People will not tolerate another bail out they76 are on there knees in many parts
Get out a bit and you may see
IT'S OVER

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roneik · 18/12/2014 18:15

ON
Typing error due to angry senior moment, I don't know how 76 got in there . Maybe it's a cryptic sign Xmas Grin

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roneik · 18/12/2014 18:37

Look IMO if it ever got back to where we were when banks were bailed out , with what people the masses have endured , we will have anarchy . You wont be safe anywhere, those that have ,will be not have peace and what you have will not be safe. I do believe it could turn into a scary situation

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LaurieFairyCake · 18/12/2014 18:59

That's a bit rude Hmm

I'm not remotely 'gloating'. I've been in negative equity in the early 90's when everyone else was and actually I understand quantitative easing fine.

There won't be a crash and I wouldn't give a monkeys crap if there was.

What Britain needs is a massive house building programme which would hopefully bring prices down. The building industry needs this, our population needs this and our unemployed need it.

roneik · 18/12/2014 19:12

Ok so you accept it's real money and I am sorry but just stating the truth as I perceive it .

I despair quantitative easing fine, so you didn't notice the inflation or the other problems . I do agree with the housebuilding comment

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roneik · 18/12/2014 19:18

Germany had lots of money printing (now called QE )and they needed a barrow of money to buy a barrow by the end of WW2

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MaryWestmacott · 18/12/2014 19:22

There's not been 125% mortgages for a long time, (since northern rock), and given house price rises in the interim, most of those are now in positive equity, it's not bad debt if the property is worth more than the loan secured on it and the borrowers are able to pay.

Most companies who were doing big redundancies have done them, unless there's massive interest rate rises, most people can afford to pay their debts.

New mortgages are only being offered on very strict lending criteria, meaning the chances of the new people borrowing now defaulting are reduced.

We've been hearing about a house price crash coming any time soon since around 2007, apart from a brief period in 2008/9 after the financial crisis, most houses in the SE have increased in value month after month to the chagrin of the crash-believers on the internet. It won't just happen, there needs to be something external to push down prices. Lending stopping again, interest rates going up to make house buying less affordable/forcing sales, massive economic down turn leading to large numbers of the sort of people who are owners to lose their jobs, vast swaths of professional class migrants leaving the uk etc, governments are going to work very hard to stop any of these things happening.

Housing isn't like any other consumer product, you can't just do with out it, and once you've got it, most people prioritise paying housing above all other spending.

roneik · 18/12/2014 19:43

Just one of the reasons you give stops the party. Lending it has been restricted and not many get past the stress test. The other point (housing becomes less affordable) well most informed people know that's here right now.I will give you external reasons now
EU biggest trading partners faltering economies less trade with us
The Russian situation cannot be helping either as we are in a global economy now, most economies are linked . What happens to one has an effect on others. One of the reasons Germany has almost zero growth is their trade with Russia has been badly affected. Soon it will filter here banks tourism investment , and not forgetting Russia borrowed from UK banks, so if that domino falls....

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roneik · 18/12/2014 19:47

Forgot falling north sea revenues to UK government. Oil is trading at about 65 $ a barrel as opposed to well over a hundred$ back a bit. That's a knock unless you are deaf

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LaurieFairyCake · 18/12/2014 20:04

I understand QE fine, I didn't say I agreed with it.

I understand youve got a political agenda/rant to get across - that's no excuse for not reading others posts.

I'm interested in what you think the effects would be if there was a massive house price crash?

They've been predicting this crash for the best part of 10 years. The fact is that there are huge swathes of the country where property has barely risen in the last 15 years.

This is a South East problem (if it is a problem) if there's a crash - and the South East would cope just fine because it's not real money if you're sat watching your house double in value every 2 years. People would shrug a bit - "oh shit my house in Richmond has halved in value, never mind it's still up half a million since 2004"

Yes, there'd be some people it would affect but if there was mass repossessions then the banks would have to write it off.

shabbycaddy · 18/12/2014 20:08

To be fair hopefully everyone can be in agreement that house prices are way to high at present. I don't know how anyone can defend that keeping them high and continued rising is a good thing, it's pushing people into staying at parents home, house sharing etc and making people essentially slaves for most of their lives to pay a mortgage or rent. Sadly I don't think there will be a massive crash unless outside influences destroy the monetary system, what will most likely happen next year is stagnation as we have reached a new peak, however the dodgy government I'm sure will come out with some more loan schemes for buyers so the train doesn't stop. Not sure how they will get all their money back when people die and the young can't afford to buy though;)

PigletInABlanketJohn · 19/12/2014 00:52

we all know that houses cannot keep increasing above earnings and inflation indefinitely, otherwise they would eventually cost a billion times earnings.

What we don't know, is when they will fall.

Homeowners will then grumble about negative equity, and those who "released capital" by borrowing money secured against their homes will have a real problem.

perhaps the forthcoming rises in interest rates over the next couple of years will kick off a round of repossessions and price falls. Nobody will want to keep paying a million pound mortgage on a house they could buy for half a million, so perhaps there will be some defaults and contrived bankruptcies. Maybe it will happen when the Chinese banking crash comes.

MaryWestmacott · 19/12/2014 08:31

Piglet - we also don't know if they will ever fall, just stop rising until become more affordable compared to incomes.