What month will the property crash be obvious in?

[roneik]

Not doom but a question, and I would like to hear some opinions

I reckon by july

As I have mentioned before I believe whoever comes to power after May will have to tax credits.They have harmed the economy subsidizing corporations labor costs.
As for the Elephant in the room , I know several people in the south east who are very near to having to face selling up. Their only choice is downsizing or renting. They still have time to exit but are living in another dimension. They are of the mind the party still has enough life in it to allow them great spoils. You cannot get through to them.I think people are also ignoring the fact that millions mewed the equity to such a degree they may well get burnt before the crash has panned out

morethanpotatoprints They are selling well here too, I was wary of posting any increase as I posted about the mini and it all got distorted.
Of course they will rise in some areas up here , you cant tell me that there are no people out there that took less salary up here, but had the opportunity of owning their own home. I am glad you posted your purchase of 64k I was beginning to think I was being seen as a liar. I don't want to post my location , some on here come over as a bit troublesome.

Do you still think July Ron? And will there be one event which will be a catalyst, or several events providing the perfect economic Storm?

Fwiw, I do take it seriously (DH does not), although I don't worry about it, and I am trying to get our personal debt level down (have overpayed mortgage by c£100,000 since interest rates fell to rock bottom those 6 or so years ago, for example), just in case. Although I just don't see a crash this year. Unless something occurs in the world economy which has a knock on effect on Britain.

Forgot to mention , not much good earning mega money if it all goes on putting a roof over your families head

But don't tell them all , I will have to move on from here if I have landlords dragging the environment down with scruffy badly maintained properties, and tenants from hell

Thanks Roneik. I am london born and bred, but not necessarily forever fettered to the smoke. I keep an eye out on here, for future possibilities.

Not sure where you are potatoes but the transaction for the my home town (North Yorks) go along lines of:

90-98 - Pretty flat; prices stagnant to falling. Transaction on floor.
99-02 - Prices double. Transaction running above normal.
02-04 - Still hot.
04-06 - Prices high; transaction about half the level you'd expect.
06-07 - Transaction fall off cliff. Prices fall 20%.
07-13 - Transaction recover to about 50% of normal market.
14+ - Transaction running at 10% of normal market. Prifes at 2004ish levels.

Check the number of transaction here:

houseprices.io/maps

bowlersarm well it's beginning to speak for itself with the drops in recent months. Uncertainty in May . You have to realize we have been sold a pup.
Millions are parked on all sorts of schemes that do not generate tax income for the government. Europe looking spooky . Stock market after 15 years not got back to peak. Everything is conspiring, the debt both private sector and government is the only finger in the dam that has stopped the economy being washed away. Even car sales are a spoof sales generated by ppi money for the deposit. Scrappage schemes . It's all been an illusion and a lot of people bought into it never seeing any further than the end of their noses.
I wonder if house prices were at sensible levels that could have been achieved with decent policies. One would have been to have used a few billion of the QE to build homes. Instead they gave birth to a monster Buy to let. If people are spending such proportions of their earnings on a roof there is no hope of them participating in the economy by imputing sending into
You now have supermarkets in decline , that has to say something no matter how detached from the real day to day lives of the masses
It takes everyone to participate but they cant f@cking millions exist only
July it is

houseprices.io/?q=scu
Prices hover over property with mouse for historic

It's simple, if the Bank of England rise interest rates at the moment it will destroy what little growth there is. What does that tell you? Like previous posted mentioned, anyone saying it's all fine and dandy are in a dream world as they probably have high paying jobs, had inheritance, bought a number of years ago or own their houses. Who the hell is going to buy the rake load of houses which have pensioners sat in them at the moment? Won't be young families, they are being purchased and either being knocked down and flats built or broken up into room lets, great.....

I know there is no union power left, but all the same If I was young I would be organizing protests. Maybe an online organized mass demonstration.
We had to strike to get a decent wage and I spent a lot of time as a union rep unpaid organizing and picket duty

A few mass demonstrations would get these self serving last two governments moving if they were organized correctly.

Renters are becoming the majority, you need to use that in your favor either at the ballot box or on the street protesting, or both.You have been shafted

Well, it's all looking doom and gloom. I've done what I can by buying a modest home, taking a mortgage barely one times our annual salary and battening down for the long haul. I won't consider myself a home owner until the mortgage is paid off.

I must say, even the thought of an interest only mortgage brings me out in a cold sweat. Very risky way to live your life.

The BBC state propaganda piece for the ministry of plenty have been droning out the latest bit of propaganda all day
Record number of first time buyers last year

I will translate that for you from ministry of plenty untruth speak

Record numbers of people from other countries bought their first property here in the UK helping indigenous population to further price out the.
Another piece of divide and rule propaganda was pensioners seeking more help at accident and emergency
No mention of facking millions of immigrants doing minimum wage jobs that our people should be doing going there though

Helping to price out the indigenous population edit for foaming at the mouth angry moments at the keyboard bejoize

Thats why a lot of people go for these equity release schemes , to stop the government taking the house.
Why should some shite never having done hardly a stroke of work in their life, and drawn benefits probably the majority of their lives get the care free.
Why should someone who has only ever done aprox 3 years work in their life get nearly thirty quid more state pension and their rent paid than me. I have paid in for all my working life
I think I might do the same and buy gold. The economy is f@cked , and I can see another devaluation as being quite likely.

I intend drawing the f@cking pension when I am skeletal, propped up in front of the pc with the payments coming in until I would have been about 160 years of age just to spite the bastewards. With a similar thread flickering on the screen

If you look up Jesse Columbo he has forecast a property crash in New Zealand. I'm sure he'd say the same about the UK should he look at the numbers. To give some perspective, Jesse Columbo is the only pundit who predicted the oil crash.

I've been saying since 2011 to get out of property and buy gold, silver and other precious metals. I know there are those that protest that gold 'does nothing', but they're wrong, it does: in the long term it gains value over our ever devaluing currency. In a few months gold will hit highs as the idiots at the Fed have their bluff called and their fake gold be called in. I've been told you can't buy gold at the London Fix price for love nor money...

Woolly, I see what you're saying. I think there isn't much difference security wise between renting and IO mortgages if IO is the only way you can afford a modest home. But I have met loads of people with IO mortgages on million pound plus homes who could have afforded repayment mortgages if they bought a less expensive house. That's what I find bizarre.

I have friends in London on io mortgages, in fabulous properties. Thing is, the equity they have on those houses is now truly enormous. Much more than they would have had, had they got a repayment mortgage on what they could afford.

Wish I'd have thought of it!

No. IO mortgage's are worse than renting. You have to maintain the house.

IO mortgage's are lousy for the OO and the bank. You'll be be very unlikely to get an IO mortgage now. Anyone with an IO mortgage will now be unlikely to sell at the price bought at as the buyers can only get a repayment mortgage - credit determines house prices.

Whether that equity in London will be there when the house is sold remains tobe seen.

I don't think there is such a thing as choice of IO or repayment these days - you will need to a repayment.

Our io mortgage is one hundred per cent better than renting. We pay about £300 on a huge mortgage. To rent our house would be £2500. We are lucky to have a good tracker mortgage.

As a result we can afford to overpay. When it expires in mid 2020's we'll have either paid the mortgage off and be mortgage free - 100% better than have rented - or be virtually mortgage free and downsize to a mortgage free much smaller property as the children will have left home.

Interest only mortgage has been a godsend for us, and financially extremely viable, as it will have been for other people.

You have an IO mortgage and a repayment mechanism.

Most people who have an IO mortgage do not have a repayment mechanism. Some are still not aware they are only paying the interest.

How much do your repayments and IT payments cost you per month?