What month will the property crash be obvious in?

[roneik]

Not doom but a question, and I would like to hear some opinions

I reckon by july

Has the nurse been round to you yet with your medication?

Gosh if this is how adults are reacting to 13% drops , what happens in JUly when it's 45%

It's over children over

Bickering here has become personal. Please don't let it!

Happy new year. Be nice to each other.

happy new year to you, I always try to be nice, it's hard sometimes though

Roneik you've a lot to offer, join in on some of the other threads and give these ones a breather!
X

I'm interested to read your predictions.

Emeline- nice to read a kind post on here! Truth is no one knows what will happen and does it matter really? Maybe a crash would be a good thing (I'm a London homeowner) because younger people will be able to get on the housing ladder. I feel sorry for my younger colleagues (NHS ) who are condemned to spending 1/2 their salary in rent and as things stand will never be able to buy unless they leave London. Let's keep it in perspective folks, a lot of this property wealth is illusory unless you decide to move to the Midlands or East Anglia.

I think there is a slight levelling (good) not a crash.

Roneik you are like a Jehovahs Witness predicting the end of the world. If you keep on shouting 'Crash! Crash!' then the law of averages says that once every 12 years or so you'll be right. But this year isn't it.

At the moment it seems to have turned into ad hominem attacks on roneik.

He loves it Issy he likes to wind people up then fucks off an starts another thread about exactly the same thing !

Issy do an advanced search on his posts and you'll see why! He's OBSESSED with predicting the end of the world, in property terms.

Roenik: "I have a top the range mini..."

I hate to say this, m'boy, but I had a mini in 1965, 50 years ago, and I lived in Lincolnshire at the time. Scunthorpe, to be precise.

These days I drive a Mercedes, and no longer live in Scunny.

I guess we have different measure of success.

driving an expensive car means you chosen to spend money on an expensive car. It's not a measure of success. it's a measure of what you choose to spend your money on.

But I don't care what other people spend their money on.

I know that Roneik is very focused on the prediction but I still find his posts interesting even if I think he's over predicting, that's just my opinion.

If prices fall good, because more people who are currently priced out can buy.

I like to keep an eye on it all too. I think there actually will be a crash at some stage, just not convinced its imminent.

The doomsday crashers just tend to get a bit hysterical and repetitive though; you can't seem to have a rational conversation with them, and that gets wearing after a while.

It's an interesting topic. Oil price seems to be the big concern currently.

I think perhaps that because a lot of posters live in London they have become slightly detached from reality. We have never before had a situation like the present before. There are huge swathes of poverty in the UK now.
If people had read my comment about the mini , it was to emphasize how cheap my house was. I don't want to move from the north, I have settled here and I like the people and the region.Maybe I should not have mentioned I have one. I am a petrol head still and love cars with grunt.
I hate mercedes cars they are dull and I am young at heart. They are an old persons car and I don't feel old, far from it.
You will also see that this is the area people will escape to. It's one of the last affordable areas for property. I have lived in many areas of London and it is not currently a place I even want to visit yet alone live.

You people have to let go of the idea that was has passed will follow. Try to see the bigger picture. There are too many different factors conspiring against property prices in London and other off the scale areas.

I see nobody has mentioned the drops in prices for December, that's several months of increasing drops. In two month almost three times UK average salary.

Roneik, what is the area that people will escape to? Tell me so I can log it in my 'escape plan' folder, for future reference.

I have only ever started 2 threads on mumsnet. What month will property crash and a jokey one that mirrored the time of year thread . That one died a death as nobody seemed to see the funny side, If my opinions wind you up ignore me, or the thread .simples

a lot of people posting on mn will be alright jack

Even if there's a bit of a crash at some point, they won't end up in negative equity hell as they are well in to the period of their mortgage anyway. they have two secure jobs and two good incomes and no matter what happens they probably will be all right. so posters come on to the thread sneering at the prophecies of gloom that go with price fall predictions because negative equity and/or one job loss/pay cut wouldn't effect them. That's their perspective and I am interested to read all posts. But I think that just because you can be certain a crash won't effect you and won't effect a lot of people like you, it's still worth contemplating the possibility of a crash and how it would impact on people who bought at the top of the market and /or who aren't far in to the period of their mortgage.

emeline In general a lot of LIncolnshire. Did you not see the houses I linked to ? Get a post code list from the net and type in the first set of digits on rightmove.
I can tell you that for about 159/75k you can get a 4.5 bedder in good area not hard to find. Villages more but not silly.

I at no point said a crash would not affect me. If people that claim I am a doomster read the 2 threads ,they would I did say "it will affect everyone, it will f@ck the economy into the ground* My ramblings as they are described are at least my opinion , I know this time I am right. No amount of snazzy little rabbits out of hats will save it. It's tipped and falling and picking up velocity

Emeline you can buy a two bed terrace here for about 80k less if you want to buy something a bit run down for a project. Generally about 75/85 for an ok house in a not rough area. Tad more for better bit upmarket streets.
I paid a lot less 8 years ago, bought from a landlord that got out. I had to gut the place to get it to where I wanted. I even had to replace a floating floor
Doing virtually everything except the windows myself meant I ended up with a nice house for not much money

I meant posters earlier on in the thread.

I can see how property prices impact upon other things. People think they're safe because they own their own home for example but then suddenly it leaks out on to other parts of life, commerical property is so expensive that pay increases are frozen. That's just an example. It's all linked up.

Junglen, once a crash gets in full swing distressed sales are the marker for any street price , no matter where it is. They are not safe unless they are either rich or have paid for the house. This may go on for years until europe incomes levels to the other parts of the productive world.

Not to worry If I got the wrong end of the stick

Junglen,

Not sure your comment:
'Even if there's a bit of a crash at some point, they won't end up in negative equity hell as they are well in to the period of their mortgage anyway. they have two secure jobs and two good incomes and no matter what happens they probably will be all right. '

The majority of people I know with mortgages taken out post 2002 have IO mortgages. They are no nearer paying off any of the capital than the day they took the mortgage out. There's another thread on this board concerning other peopl'es problems with their IO mortgages.

As far as 2 secure jobs. I'm not sure. A lot of public sector jobs outside of education and healthcare will be cut. Most jobs created over the last 10+ years have been public sector. The private sector have and still are cutting quite a lot.

Which brings me to another elephant in the room (the UK has a herd at the mo) - tax credits. I would hazard that 60% of the parents at my kids school derive the majority of their income. They do a token 16h/24h job and claim the bulk of their income as tax credits. This is nuts. This has to stop - the UK cannot afford to pay people to work part-time. Tax credits from 0 to 23bln cost in less than 15 years. Its totally crazy.

The house I bought last year for 64k has the exact same one next door in same condition up for 82k and sold for 80k
No good with maths, but that is pretty good in a year.
Don't know where you are OP, but they're on the rise here.