Is it totally bonkers to consider buying a house in this market? In an area that is so far protected from price drops?

[Staverton]

I live in North Oxford. It is gorgeous but v expensive and so far, prices seem to be going up if anything. There is a lack of decent houses, is very good state primary that everyone wants to go to etc etc. A lot of people think a crash will never happen here.
A house has come on that we can just about afford, and it need a lot of work so will take all our savings.

Is this crazy? Do you think prices will drop even in places like north Oxford/ Chelsea/ cambridge and the other so called "bubbles"? Could we get a house like this for lots less in a few years??

All advice welcome!

Sorry about typos on phone difficult to check. There ARE a lack... Etc
Thanks!

We bought in Oxford around a year ago. My answer is....who knows! I suspect there might be a slight dip in prices but don't think North Oxford prices are going to plummet anytime soon.

It's been less than a year since we bought and prices are still going up in my area. And with our local school getting better and family houses being few and far between I suspect that trend will continue for a while at least. I am constantly amazed by how quickly nice, well located and well-priced houses are selling and for more than they would have last year.

It depends on so many factors especially how long you plan to stay in the house. If it's long term (or has the potential to be) will it really matter in 15/20 years time even if there is a dip in a few years? On the other hand, if the house won't last you longer than a few years I, personally, woudln't buy right now.

I had to move so bought a house in April this year.

My area is exactly as you describe with prices certainly holding their own and in instances of a nice place coming up selling immediately.

I agree that if you are moving and planning to stay long term then go for it. Around here to rent a house like mine would be approx £1,400 pcm so definetly more expensive than a mortgage too

Some areas of Oxford have dipped (my Mum lives in Marston, prices have dropped in her area) but if they haven't in North Oxford - where I grew up! - and you want to stay there, I would go ahead.

We live in a similarly mad bubble type area in London, and bought a year ago when prices were crashing all around. Our house is definitely worth a lot more now than a year ago, because of location - crazy as it is.

If you love the place and want to stay there a long time, I would go for it

Were doing it! Its not ideal, but if its what you want then go for it!! :)

Thanks all!
We are looking to stay there prob 10 years max. It's small and will be 3 small beds once work done... and we've got 2 almost 3 dc...
Renting is def cheaper here but we're getting on a bit so a 25 yr mortgage would take us past 60 so can't rent forever.
God it's sooo hard isn't it??

I'd wait at least a year - prices are not going to shoot up anytime soon, so you have nothing to lose by waiting, if you are comfortable renting. And it sounds like you'd be stretching yourself for a smallish house, which isn't the most sensible thing in a dodgy market.

I live in SE London, in a v expensive area, and prices are totally stagnant here - friends with houses for sale at what was market rate 12 months ago are getting hardly any interest. And these are family homes near good schools etc.

Just realised it sounds like I am boasting about my expensive area - we are renting, were hoping to buy soonish but there is no way we are buying now. Have been strongly warned off by friends who work in finance who think the economy is really going to go tits up and the housing market with it.

If it is your dream long term house, go for it otherwise sit on your hands and see what 2012 brings. DH & I are rather resigned to staying in our small but convenient rental for another 12 mths. There's not much on the market atm to tempt us. Prices are coming down slowly but I suspect that it will gather pace what with all these countries needing yet another bailout! The stock market is extremely volatile and the trend has been downwards so it's not looking good for the economy.

Given what you've said I personally wouldn't buy - especially if you've got a nice rental. I totally agree with Fruitsalad that you shouldn't stretch yourself for a small house in this market.

We've got 3 very young dcs in a smallish 3 bed and I honestly don't think we'll be able to last more than a couple more years here. We have a very manageable mortgage though (it would cost us £500 per month more to rent a similar house) so that's why we bought. We also know that we can rent this out should we need to and rent something bigger ourselves.

We are getting on a bit too and are still trying to save a decent deposit as we have never been in a position to buy. Live in Cheltenham in a very nice area and prices are still very high here too. We have rented the same house for 4 years and will probably be here for another 3-4 before we have enough money saved. Have no idea what the market will do but all this talk about the ecomony can't be good news for the housing market either.

we just bought a place we don't plan to stay in for more than 10 years. It's in an area that seems to be poised for growth, is becoming more popular, good schools, etc. - but who knows.

I still see a good chance for a big fall in prices in the next few years but maybe by 10 years from now things will come back. if you want to move somewhere bigger at the end of 10 years you want to think about relative prices though anyway. It can be better if there's a big fall - it will make the differential less when you want to upgrade. That's assuming you are not paying an enormous premium in the meantime to buy vs. renting. If your area outperforms that is also a positive.

We finally took the plunge because we got kicked out of our lovely rental house and rents had gone up so much that it actually became cheaper to buy, even assuming some capital depreciation. We also had cash sitting around that wasn't earning so had to take that into account.

I do agree though that stagnation is on the cards for a while - or falls - so you could be better off waiting it out a bit.

I'd buy in north Oxford if I could! Make sure you're actually in cachement before you buy, though.

Oxford has not dipped significantly since the initial "crash" and I thought had gone up slightly since?

Some food for thought: Oxfordshire fell by at least as much as the rest of the country in both the early 90s crash and the 2008-09 crash. Check it out yourself on the land registry website. Just because prices aren't falling yet is certainly no guarantee that they won't. And by the way, according to the land registry, average prices in Oxfordshire, having risen a little since 2009 have begun falling again, and are currently just less than 10% off their peak price.

Thanks everyone! Sorry disappeared and didn't acknowledge replies am abroad for a few days.
Food for thought indeed

I think probably we're going to wait. Which is gutting as we love the house, the school is fab, rent is dead money and a lot, and I really want my own house- oh to be able to decorate how I want etc

But it would be even more gutting if there was an enormous crash and we went into negative equity and could have got so much more for our money.

This part of north Oxford city (Summertown/jericho ) seem to outperform the rest of oxfordshire. It's quite a small area and not sure there are any figures in it in 2008-9 dip. Certainly it didn't seem like prices went down.

Thanks. Really appreciate thoughts

Staverton I think you've made the correct decision, especially in current climate. House prices ain't going anywhere but down.

Nowhere is "protected" from price drops. The recession is not over yet.

Glad you've made a decision but I view my house as a home & really couldn't care if it went into negative equity or I was able to get the same property much cheaper in a years time as long as my mortgage payments are ok. I do like a bargain but if i want something, can afford it I don't get too hung up on if I could have got it cheaper somewhere else.