Prepping for a Pandemic... 15

[FuckThisWind]

A lot of us have been here before. We Prepped for Brexit. Some of us are Heathcare workers. We prepare for the worst every day. It's difficult to predict what will happen in our lives. In our lifetime. Will we get Cancer? Will a huge meteorite wipe the world out?

One thing is for sure, this new virus is either affecting us, or is going to affect us all very soon. You are all already onboard. I hope you are prepared and much as you can be. And in the meantime this thread is here to support us all.

This week will bring many new challenges. We are almost certain to have some sort of lockdown. Like other parts of Europe. We aren't special. We aren't different. We are all
fragile souls. But I hope we live to tell the tale.

God Speed.

Dh just asked about Ds drama club. If he can go to school surely he can go there? Also just realised he goes to school on a community bus that possibly does hospital runs.

Does anyone else feel strangely calmer now? I do. I think because I had a good cry yesterday and saw my mum

Soooo....how do I prep for the whole family being together for a month 🤯

Schools are closed until 21st April. All restaurants, bars, shops, entertainment and leisure facilities are also closed. DH had an introduction to working from home today. He did not appreciate it! He worked at the dining table, open plan flat. That's where I usually do homework with the DC and where I'm planning to school them. But DH has been told his offices might completely close and they will have three days to sort their case papers. But they're also not allowed to take all papers from a case out of the office at any one time. We have one computer, the Dc will have work set by computer. I don't know what yet, will find out tomorrow. But DH needs it to work. And expects quiet

We heard yesterday that our upcoming holiday had been cancelled and refund is being issued, so have the benefit of sum going on our credit card. Very lucky I know.

So glad I prepped - thanks everyone for your support and advice. Relieved I haven't had to panic buy and taken items off others, but at the same time wondering if I've done enough.

Think it's just hit my Mum, even though I've need gently trying to tell her for weeks. Sounds like she's got some extras though and hoping I can get a couple of bags to her this weekend - so far unless it's been the exact article, it hasn't been acceptable, but offered her a pack of our cheap teabags earlier - I think she'll accept now!

Re restarting the 14 day countdown.

If someone has the 2 key symptoms but are not tested you can’t know if they had Covid-19 so if someone else then starts showing symptoms it’s correct to restart the clock at day 1 for everyone. Even if the first person has symptoms for 3 days then nothing then again on day 14 I’d suggest it could be a new symptom . There is variation in incubation period and period without symptoms etc.

Say person 1 has a seasonal virus on day 1, person 2 has picked up Covid on day 0 and then has a symptomless illness during which time they are infectious, person 3 picks up Covid from person 2 on day 5 and has 5 symptomless days before getting sick

Perhaps we could replace the summer exams with a multiple choice on the self isolation rules.

A lot of this would be clearer if everyone was tested but you might prefer hunkering down for the duration anyway...

I might have beans pasta and rice to last out the apocalypse but I've just realised I've forgotten something vitally important.......biscuits.

On a serious note does Boris really believe everyone will just do as their told without some sort of mandate?

Any news yet on the headteachers meeting with the education minister please?

@nightshade1 you need biscuits

Anyone just been watching Sky News? That chap they had on briefly who mentioned the Imperial College report looked really shaken and I found it and had a read of the summary. I can sort of see why. Here it is. The report is called Report 9 and is available from: www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/

This is the summary at the start of the report, I haven't read further yet.

"The global impact of COVID-19 has been profound, and the public health threat it represents is the most serious seen in a respiratory virus since the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Here we present the results of epidemiological modelling which has informed policymaking in the UK and other countries in recent weeks. In the absence of a COVID-19 vaccine, we assess the potential role of a number of public health measures – so-called non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) – aimed at reducing contact rates in the population and thereby reducing transmission of the virus. In the results presented here, we apply a previously published microsimulation model to two countries: the UK (Great Britain specifically) and the US. We conclude that the effectiveness of any one intervention in isolation is likely to be limited, requiring multiple interventions to be combined to have a substantial impact on transmission.

Two fundamental strategies are possible: (a) mitigation, which focuses on slowing but not necessarily stopping epidemic spread – reducing peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk of severe disease from infection, and (b) suppression, which aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducing case numbers to low levels and maintaining that situation indefinitely. Each policy has major challenges. We find that that optimal mitigation policies (combining home isolation of suspect cases, home quarantine of those living in the same household as suspect cases, and social distancing of the elderly and others at most risk of severe disease) might reduce peak healthcare demand by 2/3 and deaths by half. However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many times over. For countries able to achieve it, this leaves suppression as the preferred policy option.
We show that in the UK and US context, suppression will minimally require a combination of social distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family members. This may need to be supplemented by school and university closures, though it should be recognised that such closures may have negative impacts on health systems due to increased
absenteeism. The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package – or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission – will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) – given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed. We show that intermittent social distancing – triggered by trends in disease surveillance – may allow interventions to be relaxed temporarily in relative short time windows, but measures will need to be reintroduced if or when case numbers rebound. Last, while experience in China and now South Korea show that suppression is possible in the short term, it remains to be seen whether it is possible long-term, and whether the social and economic costs of the interventions adopted thus far can be reduced."

Hello, as it stands at the moment with children still
In school would you take children out for walks at the weekends ( in open spaces)?

Ladyyellow I personally would, but would stay away from other people and wouldn't touch anything that someone else might have touched. Exercise is great for the immune system and also relaxing which is the best thing right now.

We went out at the weekend biking on a route DH regularly rides. He said he as never seen so many people out for a walk! Same today (schools are closed where I am but movement not yet restricted.) when he went running and took Dc with him in their bikes. He saw three other families doing the same, he's never seen that before.

We deliberately didn't go anywhere with playgrounds etc.

Oh God it's a total mess.

I have an on off cough, but not new.

Ds has a slightly raised temp. Gone down a bit when took it, but he was chewing on the glass thermometer.

DD has asthma and is upset at no school.

@BanKittenHeels actually some of the parents created a school Facebook account but immediately the school responded saying they don’t have any affiliation with the group, won’t moderate or acknowledge and they are discouraging it. But their sister-school has authorised fb group - they both share staffs and ht etc but still they don’t do it for this one - I wonder why

@RhubarbTea @preponderings thanks this was my thinking too. Vitamin D important for immune system and although not spreading the virus is really important we have to try and be mentally well too!

France is under curfew, so it could follow.

Following my comment earlier this printed guidance is now out www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-guidance-on-social-distancing-and-for-vulnerable-people/guidance-on-social-distancing-for-everyone-in-the-uk-and-protecting-older-people-and-vulnerable-adults

It seems clear that children with underlying conditions are included in the guidance and hence I will be keeping DD home from tomorrow. DS will still be going to school but I am going to ensure than when he arrives home he immediately washes his hands and changes his clothes. Various clubs and classes have been emailing to say they are closing. Life is definitely changing.

Sorry not a prepping question (it's a bit late for that). I am abroad but have elderly relatives in the uk, am looking at sorting an asda delivery for them does anyone have recent experience of how much stuff got subbed / missed etc or any orders cancelled. They dont like the idea of delivery at all so I'm hoping for good news stories to out their minds at rest.

I can't even get online deliveries anymore - all slots booked out until the calendar ends on 5th April

@wheresmymojo try iceland. they seem to have more delivery slots x

I have a delivery with Sainsburys booked for 22nd thank goodness because I can't get anything else now. I imagine they'll start diverting staff soon to increase capacity.

Well today has just been so weird for me, I needed to get some bits in and I was so full of anxiety that I felt I was going mad, I was walking home and almost felt so disconnected from the world that I felt lost even though I walk that way all the time. Watched the news and just burst into tears. Mentally exhausted.

I hope everyone is getting on ok

Asda offered me any slot from saturday lunchtime for their area. Worried it might be false optimism though. Or they wouldn't get anything we ordered.

I only had a clue of small subs from Tesco today.

@wheresmymojo hundreds of thousands (if not millions?) of us in the same position. Surely they will do something??