Prepping for a pandemic 2

[wheresmymojo]

Second thread on prepping for a potential Coronavirus pandemic...following the latest news and information as well as prepping info.

When quoting estimates like mortality rates, replication rates, incubation periods and similar I try to stick to evidence based, scientific studies and will link to sources (unless already linked to them previously).

Generally speaking I use reputable sources of information like well regarded news outlets for other information and will provide links.

Sometimes I may post things outside of this as 'interesting' or such like. I will always caveat these as to be taken with caution.

As much as possible I am attempting not to link to fake news. It's an evolving picture so may not be 100% successful but if something is later shown to be incorrect I will post a correction.

My friends in Beijing are staying put. They don’t have a home in the UK although lots of us would willingly put them up but Beijing is their home, where their jobs and friends are and also their dog who they wouldn’t leave without.

the WHO report a death rate of approx 2%

Mortality Rate (2.1% Nationwide, 4.9% Wuhan, 3.1% Hubei, and 0.16% other provinces) by the NHC of China

From www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

Suspecting he was unwell on return from his ski trip, why the hell did he go out to the pub on Saturday?
I suppose at the time he was in Singapore on “business”, only something like 200+ cases had been reported in China, so you would think it highly unlikely you’d come into contact with someone carrying the virus.
Just goes to show those numbers were obviously hugely under reported.

What about his little ski trip though- the 4th UK case is from someone who caught it from him there between Jan 24-28. Then you have everyone he flew home with, everyone the 4th patient has been in contact with.
And his trip to the pub, and the other bloke who he infected who then flew to Majorca and infected his family, and anyone else he was in contact with.....

Yep, spreading silently. There is still chance it can be contained but the health authorities had better err on the side of caution pdq. If they don't ...

Aeroplanes with their recycled air are going to be a concern.

Why are some posters talking about he Brighton case as if he's somehow been irresponsible? He had no idea!

And that they were in contact with before they became symptomatic.

Holiday makers could be flying home and going back to work before they are symptomatic.

I have think it is getting closer and closer to spreading more widely.

@BlackeyedSusan I have think it is getting closer and closer to spreading more widely

I agree with this. If each 1 person who gets the virus then passes it on to (conservatively) 3-4 other people - this happened both with the Chinese person who passed it asymptomatically to the German colleagues and then the Brit who went to Singapore and passed it to the others - and so on, it could easily spread very quickly.

The population of Wuhan is 11m. The population of London is approx 9m. Imagine 33000 (and the rest) cases in London when our hospitals are already pretty much at capacity with a very bad flu season, and only (I have read but happy to be corrected) 4 units in the UK with the specialist equipment to deal with this. I don't have much faith in the government saying we are ready and equipped to deal with this. We very much aren't.

Looks like BBC4 is repeating the contagion experiment programme on Tuesday at 10pm. Interesting choice..

It is the ski chalet spreading to the holidaying family in Majorca that has made me feel really uneasy. So much potential for spread, especially as they have found out that they think it spreads through breathing out droplets.

When Mr Brighton went to Singapore, it was being reported to be just China to worry about. If he met someone infectious presymptom, he then had 11 or so days to meet people and pass it on... A lot changed in 11 days of reporting... More information coming out...

We are always going to be about two weeks behind in our information due to the incubation period, and testing period, and release of information to.the media, which needs to filter down to the general population.

Sorry meant to add that MR Brighton would not have had all the facts when he was travelling, nor holidaying in Ski chalet, and judging them on what we know now is unfair. It is easy to demonise someone, when many would do.the same if they had opportunity.

Assuming the fourth UK case is the mother from the family in France, she is a Dr and in the UK sitting professional exams. That’s probably quite a worrying contact group, sitting in enclosed spaces with a group of other Doctors?

But actually the cases they’ve traced who are infected seem to be people who’ve had really prolonged contact with the Brighton case, like sharing a chalet for four days and even then not all of them caught it. There don’t seem to be cases that have arisen from more casual contact. The same for the two cases in York, where there don’t seem to have been any additional infections.

like sharing a chalet for four days and even then not all of them caught it.

Well, not all of them have tested positive for it. There are reported cases of people being tested numerous times before testing positive, including the doctor who died.

Our local hospital has created a ward for coronavirus.

I don’t think it’s avoidable, I’m going to assume we’re all going to catch it. So I’ve decided to prepare for that instead. Making sure I’ve got all our medicines up to date and tinned food etc. I’m so glad I bought my nebuliser after last years bout of pneumonia. I’ve not used it yet, but I don’t need to traipse off to Hospital unless I’m on deaths door. Praying my asthma is not affected.

I’m so glad I bought my nebuliser after last years bout of pneumonia.

Do you have ventolin nebules for them or just saline solution?

I’m worried about the Brighton man and his air travel? Surely everyone on the flight back with him on the 28th should be tested? It seems that they won’t be. But that’s many people who could have caught it on the plane and passed it on to others by now. They won’t find it easy to get tested unless they are severely unwell (they won’t be in one of the recognised at risk groups).

I work with a man who went skiing at a different resort but who also flew back on the 28th of January. It’s certainly peaking my anxiety.

Understandably, due to the lack of clear information we have. It will take time for proper studies to find it what we are dealing with.

@ChipotleBlessing I thought I had read somewhere that the mother had tested negative, and the pronouns in the report that I read about the 4th case were male ones, but maybe the details aren't being released. Imagine the panic that would ensue if it was reported that it was a Dr who had acquired it.

FourTeaFallOut Yes I have both saline and ventilin capsules, thankfully.

I could easily pick up a nebuliser but I don't think there's much use without salbutamol and I don't think the GP would be very impressed about my plan to prep for a future asthma attack in a coronavirus outbreak - I don't see that scenario on my asthma plan at all

I only have it because I’ve needed to go to A&E 3 times last year for treatment and the last time was with pneumonia. Even if I don’t catch Coronavirus I feel I need to do everything I can to avoid going down to the A&E germ soup kitchen.

@rainypuddles where is that?

Aibu-> that way?

@T0tallyFuckedUpFamily very sorry about your friend, that is a totally CFer and rightly deserves to be cut out your life. I hope your stash builds up again silently. I’m going to keep the cleaner our one room with my stash, trust her but it only takes “I clean for someone who’s stocked up like a crazy person” in the pub for me to to be the first house to rob in a lock down scenario.