Prepping for a pandemic 2

[wheresmymojo]

Second thread on prepping for a potential Coronavirus pandemic...following the latest news and information as well as prepping info.

When quoting estimates like mortality rates, replication rates, incubation periods and similar I try to stick to evidence based, scientific studies and will link to sources (unless already linked to them previously).

Generally speaking I use reputable sources of information like well regarded news outlets for other information and will provide links.

Sometimes I may post things outside of this as 'interesting' or such like. I will always caveat these as to be taken with caution.

As much as possible I am attempting not to link to fake news. It's an evolving picture so may not be 100% successful but if something is later shown to be incorrect I will post a correction.

OK so how much of a stockpile do we really need? I have a stash that would cover a month - maybe 2 if we were frugal. Really I think 6 months worth would be ideal. However, that would cost over 1k and right now that's not doable. I am trying to narrow down the list to things that would be most useful with long dates and protein and veg.
I could completely fill the freezer but it takes a simple power cut or fault in the appliance to loose £000s of food. So focussing on things that can be stored at room temp. Suppose I'm down to tin and powders now.
Add on some medicines to get through a month of illness - 8 pills per 24 hours gives 56 for a week. Adjusting adult and child doses for family - 224 for a week. You'd want more than that. Suddenly this gets complex. I'm off to count mine.

Of warren - the article just said it was passed on in France, maybe it's another skier? The article is confusing though as then it talks about the latest case being something to do with the evacuation flight from this morning??!! Maybe I'm being dim but clearer information would be good for those of us that live in Brighton!

I'm thinking it's possibly the mum who is infected too. I dread to think how many people she has been in contact with. I wonder at what point, if at all, she was told to self isolate just in case?

If the test results are back, it sounds like she was alerted, isolated and tested as soon as they found the link.

Aurea no venom in my comment. Just pointing out that relying on articles like the one you posted isn't a great idea. Yes, it's common sense to try to eat healthily, exercise and sleep adequately; but it's madness to reject what actual scientists might come up with to combat the virus. From what I've read, it's scientists at universities who are at the forefront of this, not "big pharma".

The first group quarantined at Arrowe Park will be coming to the end of their 14 days this week and will be getting back to their regular lives. Good news that no cases from this group so the quarantine process has worked.

The Argus is saying the fourth coronavirus patient was in London, is that right - I can't find anyone else saying this?

Parker231 I do wonder what those Quarantined are going to do now. Yes, a lot of them will have been put on holiday etc but for many their “regular lives” will have been out in China. Hopefully they have family or friends they can stay with until they get back on their feet; but I’m sure many of them will be having to weigh up whether they need to be finding employment, schooling etc here or whether they should wait to see if they can go back. I imagine a lot of it will have been thought about before they made the decision whether to come back, but then again they didn’t have that much time to ponder so probably have a lot to think about! At least the 2 week quarantine has given them some time with free room and board to put a plan in place, and hopefully they’ve been given some support to think about these things.

YoursTunbridgeWells With my tin foil hat well and truly wedged on; I would tentatively suggest that if things well and truly went to shit, we could probably all eke our supplies out further. For example, if you’ve carefully planned out and bought 2 weeks worth of meals, I would suggest that this could probably last more like at least 4. For me, If it looked like we would need to be in for longer than I thought, I’d probably immediately go down to 1 meal a day to try and stretch it, and if things truly looked bad I’d look at rationing the children’s meals as well gradually. A person can survive for about 3 weeks without food after all; and there are plenty of intermittent fasting diets out there already that people get on with fine. It might result in us all eating some “interesting” combinations as we all raid the depths of the cupboards and freezers, but we’d manage.

I must admit I’m holding out hope that in a mass quarantine situation there would be some sort of government food available - even if it’s like you see with the UN in the Sudan and it’s getting a bag of rice thrown at you from the back of a truck. It might take a while for them to get organised, so having food to see you through is always sendible. Plus Having food at home would mean I could turn around and leave if things got violent etc; whereas if I didn’t have an option I would potentially be forced to put myself into a dangerous situation more often.

I’d do the same for medicine - I have a lot in but I would probably try not to take anything for more minor symptoms, hoping to ration it for more severe times.

Plus (again with tin foil hat on) you probably want to be seen joining food queues etc by your neighbours every so often, otherwise you might as well hang a sign from your house saying “we have food supplies, please come and rob us”!

@Dyrne
Exactly, for those coming to the end of the quarantine there are many uncertainties: financial, schooling, accommodation.
We face the same situation. I am on my way back to the Uk, taking slightly longer due to HK restrictions, but our lives are in China. We can stay with my mum, but not ideal for weeks and weeks, my dd has no friends in the uk (she has never lived there), she has online learning starting tomorrow for at least the next three weeks, but will miss all her sports etc and also dh will go to HK so as a family will be split up for at least a month. Luckily dh can work from the HK office so at least we have no financial worries at the moment.

Joining this thread. I had a small Brexit stash which I am now using up and replacing with a CV stash.
Any recommendations for where to buy dried foods in bulk?
One thing I haven't got is water.

Can't help feeling that this is going to blow up in the UK very shortly. The movements of the Brighton chap are pretty concerning and even with that aside I don't see how the virus can't be circulating already given the number of flights coming in from SE Asia.

We've slowly been stocking up the cupboards but I think I might bite the bullet and do a big shop tomorrow.

am i missing something, surely the corona virus is just the flu? people die every year from it? or are the published figures misleading us and it's actually a lot worse

am i missing something, surely the corona virus is just the flu?

Yes you are and it's not just the flu.

Was going to type out long message explaining how it's not just the flu, but it just seems pointless. It's easy enough to read up on it on reputable websites and make the realisation that, no, it is but just the flu. Sigh.

Any recommendations for where to buy dried foods in bulk?

Have you any Indian or Chinese supermarkets near you? I believe they’re great for herbs, spices, rice, etc. Tesco was doing large bags of rice a while back and don’t forget to check out the cheaper shops, such as B&M and Homebargains. They’re excellent value. I keep a couple of supermarkets open on my phone, so that I can compare the prices with those if the cheaper shops, to ensure I’m getting the right bargains. I’m in NI and we’ve already discovered that we’re going to have a lot less choice because of the way customs is going to be implemented. Coronavirus on top of this and were fucked.

Plus (again with tin foil hat on) you probably want to be seen joining food queues etc by your neighbours every so often, otherwise you might as well hang a sign from your house saying “we have food supplies, please come and rob us”!

Totally agree with this. I made the mistake of confiding in a ‘good’ friend what I was doing, to them discover that when they were pleading poverty to me, resulting in me feeding them twice a week and sending them home with some of my stash, that they were buying more expensive wine than their ‘usual’, because they were saving money because of me!! WTF! I’m a widow with a disabled child and I work every.single.fucking.day as I’m a dog sitter, while that lazy fucker was spending his money on wine. I have let on that money has gotten really tight (easy with the winter turndown in business) and we had actually been living off my prepper stock. He actually wanted to see how much was left! So I showed him the nearly empty store, but not the new one he knows nothing off. 😁 He’s now stressed as he hadn’t bothered prepping and has to “catch up, because I can’t rely on you any more”. I’m in the process of fading him from my life. Funny how your ‘friends’ can suddenly find it easy to drift from your life when you stop being so helpful. Lesson learned.

I’m so embarrassed about all my mistakes in that rant. 😳

I think the interesting thing about the Brighton man is he realised almost as soon as he was back in the UK that he might have CV and self isolated. So he wasn't really in contact with anyone in the UK. Hopefully that means no one here is infected. Had he come straight back tonth UK rather than stopping in France to see family he would have been in contact with lots of people before developing symptoms.

Within the US influenza has a death rate of 0.05%, with 1% of cases requiring hospitalisation. Coronavirus is more unknown but the WHO report a death rate of approx 2%, with 14% of those infected being classed as severe.

So no, it's not 'just the flu' unfortunately.

On top of that you have a situation where (unlike flu) no one has immunity, so vast numbers of people are likely to be infected simultaneously, completely overwhelming hospitals.

Not the same scenario at all.

am i missing something, surely the corona virus is just the flu? people die every year from it? or are the published figures misleading us and it's actually a lot worse

Of course dear. And that’s why countries are closing their borders, physically dragging people from their homes, threatening their workers when they speak out and quarantining people in nursing accommodation and on ships, medical practices and hospitals telling those who suspect that they have it, NOT to go to them, but phone from home. sure we do this with every flu. Dear Gaia, it’s like having a conversation with my own daft son. Some people just don’t seem to grasp the seriousness of this.

Emma - local paper reporting he was out at his local pub in Hove, I believe some of them have been told to self isolate.
Also without wanting to induce hysteria, how did he get back from airport..Gatwick Express, taxis etc. He's had loads of contact with people in those few days

There’s also the fact that catching it and recovering from it, does not make some people immune, the more you’re in contact with the infection p, the worse you get it.

I think the interesting thing about the Brighton man is he realised almost as soon as he was back in the UK that he might have CV and self isolated. So he wasn't really in contact with anyone in the UK.

What about his little ski trip though- the 4th UK case is from someone who caught it from him there between Jan 24-28. Then you have everyone he flew home with, everyone the 4th patient has been in contact with.

Bold fail there- first paragraph meant to be quote 🙄