Prepping for a pandemic 2

[wheresmymojo]

Second thread on prepping for a potential Coronavirus pandemic...following the latest news and information as well as prepping info.

When quoting estimates like mortality rates, replication rates, incubation periods and similar I try to stick to evidence based, scientific studies and will link to sources (unless already linked to them previously).

Generally speaking I use reputable sources of information like well regarded news outlets for other information and will provide links.

Sometimes I may post things outside of this as 'interesting' or such like. I will always caveat these as to be taken with caution.

As much as possible I am attempting not to link to fake news. It's an evolving picture so may not be 100% successful but if something is later shown to be incorrect I will post a correction.

The resort of Les Contamines is where the ski chalet is.

Perhaps, I'm selfish but keeping my family, friends and work colleague well and alive is more important than economics and lifestyle

By people's lives I didn't mean lifestyle.

The way the economy works, it means that keeping people alive is also dependent on keeping travel and trade.

People need food and medicine. People need equipment. Hospitals need supplies.

If the economy tanks because people stop going about their normal business it will have an impact on health services too.

Any measures need to be sensibly thought out.

Increased surveillance and tracking contacts when a case is detected has been working well so far when dealing with travellers.

Increased surveillance and tracking contacts when a case is detected has been working well so far when dealing with travellers

Time will tell. Let's hope so but we can't know for a little while yet.

It seems like the original case at that Singapore conference must have been a super-infecter? So many cases linked to them when many other cases outside of China seem to have infected just one or two others or even noone. Really bad luck that that original case attended an international conference.

@Lweji I actually regretting it now thanked you and Redtoothbrush on the other big CV thread, as I thought both of you gave, and are still giving, lots of useful information and advice.

It's very rude to come here and not RTFT or the previous one, but start disparaging posters when you are going on the back of a few posts only.

There is lots of useful advice on prepping on this thread (the clue is in the topic name) not just for this issue but in general. Lots of us have, or more scarily have DC, with underlying health issues and some of us are in the affected areas. Some of us just like to prep the shit out of everything

Generally these two last prepping threads have been balanced and useful, not just for this but for other situations, and if you read them you may have a different view.

And also, the irony is that we won't be the people succumbing to The One Inch Of Snow And We Will All Starve To Death people clearing the shelves in a frenzy and contributing to the general panic and causing problems for everyone else.

We are just people who like to be prepared, not just for this situation but for other emergencies like unplanned water shut offs, power cuts etc, and a good few live in countries or areas where there are much worse emergency situations.

We aren't generally the Panic Mode Enabled people who will be flapping like fuck in the coming weeks (alright we will flap a little ) as we will have prepared for other people sweeping all the bread into their shopping trolley (and you know they will be).

So please don't come and be rude and sneery when people like me are reading your posts elsewhere and finding them very useful and informative in gauging our level of preparedness.

(If you want, I'll get my DH to start a thread, he genuinely truly believes there will be a Zombie Apocalypse at some point in the future, and you can be sneery to him, that's fine )

A bit of nominative determinism going on with the Ski resort infections!

China is a major supplier to Europe and not only.
Isolating China worldwide would have a massive impact.

True, but a pandemic will have en even worse impact.

People still find ways to travel, though. And it would be harder to keep an eye on travellers. They'd just lie.

Not if they have a stamp in their passport or visa.

Ps- should the UK prevent UK nationals from entering too?

Yes, if they have been in the affected areas for two weeks.

I'm prepped for a bread and milk shortage. 8 boxes of bread mix and 5 giant tubs of powdered milk. Like fuck I want to be scrabbling over the last loaf in the shop when people are possibly infectious

A bit of nominative determinism going on with the Ski resort infections!

Yes I thought that! (inappropriate black humour but...)

I thought that too!!

Yes agreed re the name. Is it a spoof?!

I'm no economist but I'm pretty sure a prolonged pandemic with Hubei-level regional epidemics in multiple countries with a 2% death rate would leave the global economy absolutely and completely fucked.

Of course there are flights necessary to maintain supply chains and so on but in my opinion flights full of tourists and people travelling for routine non-essential business should be curbed to a closely-monitorable level. At this stage I don't think we have the luxury of protecting economies from hits resulting from people not being able to 'go about their business as usual' and I believe it's incredibly short sighted to think otherwise.

I don't disagree that stopping travel will have grave economic consequences but the impact of this getting out of control in other countries would have a far worse impact.

I'm not sure I understand @Lweji references to the economy when everyone on this thread must be keeping the economy running. DH has just come home with 9 free range chickens as they are half price at Lidl today. Plus several multipacks of toilet roll and lots of cans. Hes been poo pooing this thread up until now. But I think the Shenzhen lock-down has shocked him.
Dh's Shenzhen company HR dept. Asked the overseas workers to help get some masks for the office and factory. They managed to get masses from Russia. But it says on the packet to change after two hours! So we're not sure how effective they will be. I guess the office won't be opening on Monday anyway, so they won't need the masks.

I caved and watched a couple of episodes of Pandemic in Netflix last night.

Despite the timing, it’s not about the Coronavirus, more general flu Etc so far. It’s really well done, not at all the “PANIC” documentary I was expecting; and fascinating to see the work that is being done. Interesting watching the WHO officials in the DRC trying to contain the Ebola outbreak last year, and thinking that’s what they must be doing now with Coronavirus.

It’s a little bit US-centric, but they have got some good international stuff so far with India and the DRC. The India stuff is really relevant to what is going on in China as it makes the point that people in outlying villages won’t make the journey to City specialist hospitals until they’re Really severely ill, in which case sometimes it’s Too late

Has anyone else been watching it? I’ve only watched a couple of episodes so far so not sure if it will have any Prepping stuff.

I'm no economist but I'm pretty sure a prolonged pandemic with Hubei-level regional epidemics in multiple countries with a 2% death rate would leave the global economy absolutely and completely fucked

Yeah. Dead people don’t buy much 🙄

In 2020 business can all be done without leaving home. Yes some meetings are better & easier with everyone in the same room, but that’s desirable not essential.

Personally I think the only people that should be travelling right now are people going home (or being taken to quarantine places - off the ships etc) & any essential medical staff who are willing to go where needed.

Everyone else just needs to stay where they are and vastly reduce the risk of spreading this further & faster.

Lweji your post about preserving the economy conveniently forgets that China has already shut down much of its factories and businesses - the damage to the world economy and trade has already started, it will just take a bit to trickle down through the supply chain.

teta I read that for a second as in your DH came home with 9 live chickens

I have a friend who is a paramedic and is already having to attend calls in Hazmat suits - it took five hours in total and they could eat, drink or use the toilet in that time.

It was almost certainly not a CV case but a perfectly healthy person with a cold and this is increasing as paranoia increases. So already it starts to have the potential to impact on getting ambulances to other patients needing them.

😄@Dyrne.

Manufacturing has come to a complete halt in the Chinese industrial Heartlands.
DH office was due to go back to work on Monday. Due to the Shenzhen lockdown they now won't. He says they have enough stock to keep the company running until the end of March in India. If this goes on for longer who knows what will happen.

www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-02/08/c_138766405.htm via a Chinese news network: "The routes of the novel coronavirus infection include transmission via aerosol according to health and epidemic prevention experts, said Zeng Qun, deputy head of Shanghai Civil Affairs Bureau at a press conference in Shanghai on Saturday.

The other major routes of virus infection are contact transmission and direct transmission including transmission via respiratory droplets according to the experts, Zeng added.

Targeting these transmission routes, Zeng called on residents to take a series of measures including canceling all social activities and gatherings, opening windows regularly to maintain the circulation of indoor air and focusing on household disinfection"

Some factories are still operating, dh’s for example, Jiangsu province.
@teta
You need masks even if you are not working, you cannot enter a supermarket without one. Even cities in a lockdown situation allow people to leave (sometimes one person per household every two days) to buy food, go to the pharmacy etc.
The damage to the Chinese economy is huge- from small businesses that may never recover, to the impact on tourism (how long before people will feel confident to travel) to trade with other countries.

The pandemic supply network is reviewing supply chain of PPE twitter.com/drtedros/status/1225880161847054336?s=21
Retweeted by WHO earlier today

@ofwarren
Even when I left on 28th January the supermarket shelves were they have disinfectant were empty.
Social activities cannot really take place as non-residents cannot enter compounds. Our compound mgt issued information re Zeng’s advice about three days ago and there may be ‘legal consequences’ if you do not comply with new regulations.

Where they have disinfectant, not were.

I saw two young (non oriental, so not a cultural thing) girls wearing medical masks in Birmingham City centre this morning.