Prepping for a pandemic 2

[wheresmymojo]

Second thread on prepping for a potential Coronavirus pandemic...following the latest news and information as well as prepping info.

When quoting estimates like mortality rates, replication rates, incubation periods and similar I try to stick to evidence based, scientific studies and will link to sources (unless already linked to them previously).

Generally speaking I use reputable sources of information like well regarded news outlets for other information and will provide links.

Sometimes I may post things outside of this as 'interesting' or such like. I will always caveat these as to be taken with caution.

As much as possible I am attempting not to link to fake news. It's an evolving picture so may not be 100% successful but if something is later shown to be incorrect I will post a correction.

Malaysia is mentioned a couple of times in the recent Singapore cases.
flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/sinapore-2019-n-cov/824035-singapore-2019-ncov-cases-information/page2

Looking at the recent cases there shows an interesting range of severity of symptoms. 2/33 being critical, some feeling the need to go to a&e, others being able to carry on with some activity.

ShanghaiDiva I think you make an excellent point about appropriateness of levels of information. For me, at the stage the UK is in now, I want as much information as possible from other countries so that I can try and prepare as much as possible for the potential event coming my way.

If I were in China right now, 2+ weeks into a quarantine, possibly running low on food... I’m not sure how I would react to negative statistics saying things are only going to get worse. You could risk people thinking “fuck it, if we’re screwed anyway I might as well break quarantine to see my grandchildren/get food etc etc. Stats saying we seem to have gotten over the hump might make people think that holding tight for a couple more weeks is more doable. This prevents panic, breaking of quarantine, and perhaps gives more time for central supplies etc to be brought in and centres set up. So even if it isn’t necessarily correct, you could still argue it is for the greater public good.

Just heard the public service announcements on the radio. Be aware, only cough into tissues and dispose of them immediately then wash hands or use hand gel. Hand washing frequently.

Clearly worried but trying not to panic the population too much at this stage. Hopefully people will listen.

Badkitten - 21 days for it to kill you? If that is the case it explains the low recovery rate in the confirmed, recovered, dead totals. So there could yet be a jump in the death stats? I really feel for those in Wuhan

There will be a continued rise in deaths, but it is important to stress that the case fatality rate seems to be running somewhere around the 1-2% ish mark. That's really high, but in terms of personal individual risk, the vast majority of people will recover. Hopefully that CFR will drop substantially further as they get a handle on the mild cases.

Gov.uk now going to update every day at 2pm.

"Situation in the UK
Three patients in England have tested positive for coronavirus. Chief Medical Officer for England Professor Chris Whitty, has shared a statement. If more cases are confirmed in the UK, it will be announced as soon as possible by the Chief Medical Officer of the affected country.

Based on the World Health Organization’s declaration that this is a public health emergency of international concern, the UK Chief Medical Officers have raised the risk to the public from low to moderate. This permits the government to plan for all eventualities. The risk to individuals remains low.

Based on the scientific advice of SAGE the UK Chief Medical Officers are advising anyone who has travelled to the UK from mainland China, Thailand, Japan, Republic of Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia or Macau in the last 14 days and is experiencing cough or fever or shortness of breath, to stay indoors and call NHS 111, even if symptoms are mild.

These areas have been identified because of the volume of air travel from affected areas, understanding of other travel routes and number of reported cases. This list will be kept under review. Our advice for travellers from Wuhan and Hubei Province remains unchanged from the below.

As of 7 February, a total of 620 UK tests have concluded, of which 617 were confirmed negative and 3 positive.

We have been working in close collaboration with international colleagues and the World Health Organization to monitor the situation in China and around the world.

The Department of Health and Social Care will be publishing updated data on this page on a daily basis at 2pm until further notice."

Just seen that at least one of the confirmed cases on the japanese cruise liner is a British man on his honeymoon (so presumably his wife will also be infected). Taken off the ship to a Japanese hospital for now.

To soon to say, but it does look encouraging I am another poster who thinks "human error" rather than a cover-up. Given the numbers involved, there's always going to be a time-lag between what's happening on the ground and what is happening with the stats.

I really hope these measures are successful as the sooner the RO goes down, the sooner Chinese citizens can return to normalcy.

PM. R4 5.30 ISH. Virologist explaining Corona virus.

Sky News report - it understands British citizens flying back from the Chinese city of Wuhan on Sunday will be quarantined at a facility in Milton Keynes.

Wonder why they aren’t going to the Wirral?

@Parker231

🤷🏻‍♀️ Possibly just wanting to keep the two groups separated? Possibly to prove to the Wirral that it’s not just ‘we hate the Wirral peninsular’

It would be good to see the bus drivers taking better precautions this time!

Perhaps they only have space for one batch of quarantined patients at a time.

They can't mix otherwise the original ones may have to stay longer.

@parker the ones on the Wirral are mixing amongst each other. They are allowed outside in a fenced off area and they have a communal area with pool tables ect. It wouldn't make sense to keep sending fresh waves of people into that kind of situation. Also I'm not sure how many apartments are in that block but it's not huge. It might be already full or near capacity.

I wonder what kind of facility it is they are sending them to.

How's North Korea doing?

If it manages to reach there if it didn't start there in the first place, then that's millions of already vulnerable, malnourished people that will be absolutely fucked.

I really don’t understand the logic of permitting those in quarantine to mix with each other, since those that are not infected, could end up catching it from an infected person. The latest information suggests that the more you’re exposed to it, the worse the virus affects you, so it makes no sense.

South Korea have reported that there is a case in North Korea. NL closed the borders completely though and although there’s usually illegal cross border traffic, fear of the virus will probably keep that minimal.

Have just seen the interview with the cruise passenger who has been diagnosed as having the virus. He is showing no symptoms so hopefully the virus is getting weaker.

That is... certainly a take on there being an asymptomatic carrier.

Hey all. Just thought I'd mention the extra prepping from today. Have ordered a bag of powdered eggs online. Never used it before but I figure it can be used up in baking/pancakes etc if not required and it keeps for a couple of years. Seemed like a good source of protein in times of need. It also got me thinking about those protein shakes. I think if things take a dramatic turn and we're looking like China then that's another good way to get vitamins, minerals and protein in. Particularly if you're feeling unwell?

For the first time in my life I also bought a few tins of stew/curry/chilli as well. They also keep for a couple of years so if it all calms down then I can use them up for lunches at work or even donate them. It's a little addicting trying to 'prep' so I've had to stop before I get too carried away!

I love a good prep but I don’t often have the funds, so I’m well chuffed at how I’ve built my freezer stash over the last three months. I did leave early to pick up some extra paracetamol, ibuprofen and chicken soup from pound stretchers yesterday though

I need to stock up on calpol and nurofen but that isn’t anything I wouldn’t use anyway, and I want to make sure I’ve got a good stock of GF products for DS

Info from WHO...

Something,which in the scheme of things is unimportant, but that I’ve made sure I’ve got plenty of is ‘water softener salt’. It took a long time to get rid of the limescale in the pipes & machines - so I don’t fancy all of that building back up again simply because I wasn’t organised enough to get salt in before deliveries were stopped.

RE the lack of info from governments. As I said on this/another thread, DH works for the NHS. They are having daily meetings about this. He says the top virus guys are still saying it is no worse than flu. I may or may not be hiding preps because of this!

OYBBK that feels positive on first reading but then you start to think about the numbers involved. In a small city of 500,000, if say, 1 in 5 were infected then that's going to be 3,000 people needing critical care i.e. oxygen, specialist nursing and maybe respirators. And an awful lot more 'severe cases' who'll need to be monitored and nursed in isolation. I don't work in the NHS, but that sounds way beyond our capacity to deal with it.