Prepping for a pandemic 2

[wheresmymojo]

Second thread on prepping for a potential Coronavirus pandemic...following the latest news and information as well as prepping info.

When quoting estimates like mortality rates, replication rates, incubation periods and similar I try to stick to evidence based, scientific studies and will link to sources (unless already linked to them previously).

Generally speaking I use reputable sources of information like well regarded news outlets for other information and will provide links.

Sometimes I may post things outside of this as 'interesting' or such like. I will always caveat these as to be taken with caution.

As much as possible I am attempting not to link to fake news. It's an evolving picture so may not be 100% successful but if something is later shown to be incorrect I will post a correction.

Still worried, but thank you for all the info on this thread.
Finding my prepping a bit difficult as currently can't even live in our house due to rewiring (how raging will I be if this thing goes massive and we lose power!!!), so nowhere to put shopping and the bastards have shut off my freezer
Still, I have lots of medical supplies and even an oxygen concentrator!

I’ve just been out for a drink with a friend who works at our local uni. She has said that the staff have had a meeting and were told that students that have traveled abroad have been asked not to return to uni for a while.

41 new cases on the cruise ship anchored off the port of Yokohama totalling 61 altogether.

I've also just read something 2,826 suspected cases in India, I don't know how legit the news source is but if anyone knows it's one of those news sources that make shit up I'll report my post and have it removed.

https://www.aninews.in/news/national/general-news/2826-suspected-coronavirus-cases-being-monitored-in-kerala-says-health-minister20200206223440/?utmsource=share&utmmmedium=iosapp&utmmname=iossmf

Other news outlets are reporting the same now too re cruise ship.

I just saw that the number of cases in China grew by 4000 between Wednesday and friday. I know it’s not comparable to flu really but I’d be curious to know how the spread of flu compares to that - although I imagine we won’t have those stats because people only tend to seek medical help with flu when it gets really bad as opposed to people seeking help for this virus earlier on (I imagine) because of the awareness.

Dennisreynoldsduster I think as well now in China we’re going to see increases in reported numbers because of the controls in place and apparently if anyone is showing symptoms they have been told they have to report to a medical facility for testing. (As PP have said, this could mean that people with a simple cold are actually being exposed to other people in the queue who do have Coronavirus ) This means people with milder cases who would other wise have self treated at home are being tested and reported on (the cynical part of me wonders if this is an attempt by the Chinese authorities to lower the fatality stats by including all the lower risk cases?)

To be honest for me the conditions and clamp down in China now sound far more terrifying to me than actually having Coronavirus. I know a lot of it is because it’s how China is set up and the control the government exerts over its citizens but it must be awful if the rumours and twitter videos are true with the manhandling by authorities, being shut in buildings etc

@Dyrne
Yes, conditions in China are very tough at the moment and the restrictions in place means that what you can do is quite limited, even in areas where there are, at the moment, very few cases. This control is, of course, necessary.
There govt does exert control in times where there is no national crisis, but in the 12 years I have lived there it does not affect my daily life. Sure there are restrictions re protests, freedom of speech and they know everything about me, but this nothing compared to what is happening now.Btw I have always lived in the east of China and the west eg xinjiang province is very different.

I've looked at the numbers that were reported over night. It looks to me that we are seeing either or both of
a) a throttling in being able to test cases, due to sheer surpassing the capacity of the health system.
b) An artificial limitation because Chinese authorities a few days ago said they expected to see the peak in a few days and hence figures are being manipulated to show such a peak.

Prof Neil Ferguson was very very moderate in his messages over previous emerging diseases. So I trust his analysis. He says that it is likely that there are 50,000 new cases each day in China, that they are only picking up around 10% of cases and in the rest of the world perhaps around 25%. Any deaths typically are expected to occur around 20 days after infection, so we would not expect to be seeing deaths in most of the exported cases yet. Peak in Wuhan in a month, in China a month after that, epidemics around the rest of the world were not given a timeline - it depends on the amount of contact they have with infection.

ShanghaiDiva I’ve been so grateful for you and the others on this thread that are actually in (or have been in) the regions that are seeing the biggest impact in terms of control/quarantine etc. I’ve learnt so much from your experiences as they are most like what would actually happen to my family in the event of the same thing coming to the UK.

It’s interesting to hear you talk about living with controls in place and how it usually is day to day. It’s easy to see China as this massive controlling police state with the videos circulating on twitter etc; but I can see from what you say that it’s usually much more subtle and less intense than that. I suppose we’ve all slowly been conditioned inTo giving up more and more personal data and personal freedoms; China maybe is just a bit more “ahead” in those terms.

This is a fascinating and useful thread - some brilliant posts.

I am due to fly to Thailand on Saturday and after being very gung-ho am now having a wobble... Due to fly directly to Phuket (happy to be avoiding Bangkok!) Then we will have an hour and a bit in a taxi to get to the (very small, secluded) resort. I am flying from the Middle East, and where I am there are no reported cases. Flight is ~6 hours. I know the risk is tiny but Thailand is very popular with Chinese tourists (a taxi driver who transported some is one of the Thai nationals infected). Bugger!!!

dyrne
You are absolutely correct, China is leading the way in the control we will see exerted by more and more countries in the future.
Personal data is collected all the time, cctv everywhere. In China I am aware of it as I see the banks of screens in the office in our compound and as foreigners we are registered here, we need our passports to use the train or book a hotel etc. (Chinese need their identity cards to do this). We become accustomed to the control. When my ds relocated to the uk and stayed in a hotel on his arrival at Heathrow he could not understand why the reception staff did no want to see his passport!

We had an advisory email from school yesterday, dated 5/2/20. What to do about Corona virus.

Agree that this is a fascinating and very insightful thread - I've been lurking for the past week but am now prepared to stick my head above the parapet and say hello!

Currently on holiday in Dubai and I've found it has put a bit of a dampener on what should have been an amazing holiday (two small children and first time we've been away long haul in several years). It's not so much the being in the resort that worries me, although Dubai is very popular with Chinese tourists, but really the long haul flight on Sunday that I'm terrified about, especially as we have a 5 month old. Just want to get back to the relative safety of our home. It's crazy to think that the cases have doubled since we left home less than a week ago and by all accounts that number is likely under-reported. Difficult call for those with upcoming holidays to popular British destinations (Thailand etc).

Only bought one bottle of antibac with us and the pharmacy here has sold out Have added some more canned goods and antibacterial/Milton to next week's food delivery as want to be prepared - although fully expect those to be out of stock on the day.

Morning round up of random info:

• Some studies are showing that the virus may have jumped from the pangolin (poor bloody pangolins, hardly any of them as it is without being at a Chinese food market)

• HK airways reporting cutting 400 jobs and asking staff to take unpaid leave

• Singapore has moved from Yellow to Orange rating in its public health warning system. Another 3 cases confirmed of local H2H transmission

• Malaysia have confirmed another case - a woman who had recently travelled to Singapore (so this is now 3 countries with exported cases from Singapore - UK, Korea, Malaysia). She did not attend the conference that the UK & Korea cases attended

• A Taiwanese couple confirmed with CV reported as likely having picked up the virus on a flight from HK to Italy (presumably with the 2 Italian cases who are Chinese and - from memory - had been to Wuhan OR at the HK airport)

• Concerns are growing about the lack of/small number of identified cases in Indonesia & Cambodia which should have more

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/feb/07/concerns-coronavirus-is-going-undetected-in-indonesia?CMP=ShareiOSAppp_Other

• Some believe HK is now at local epidemic stage; this is not the official case at the moment

https://amp.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3049297/coronavirus-community-outbreak-declared-hong-kong?twitterr_impression=true

I know I'm being ridiculous, but worried about my poorly ds. Mainly because he travels through Gatwick south train terminal every day and buys a paper ticket 😫

New videos by Dr John Campbell...

Goes through a case history of a family of three in Vietnam published in the NEJM:

Provides a very clear explanation of how the virus causes pneumonia and why pneumonia can lead to death (including hand drawn diagrams!)

@dingit

Others may disagree but I don't think it's time to be worried yet.

Can he change from a paper ticket to a contactless one? Avoiding paper tickets and cash is one way of limiting contact should things spread further...

One of our close friends has underlying health issues (heart condition) and cleans planes that have come back from various Asian countries.

dingit it must be a worry with public transport etc and knowing how many people your DS must in in contact with every day.

For what it’s worth, I don’t think the UK is at the stage yet where our first concern with any illness should be “is it Coronavirus?” I think we’ve got a bit more time before we reach the tipping point to widespread H2H transmission and hopefully we’ll never get there!

Cross post with mojo!

Good News

While the actual number of additional new cases and deaths seems reasonably high the growth factor is reducing significantly.

I caveat this with the fact that this is almost certainly because of China's amazing ability to lockdown and quarantine (putting aside the human rights implications).

The biggest risk is still (IMO) that it spreads to a country (or countries) that can't implement such measures.

But good news from China and good news for their citizens...

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#cases-growth-factor

Also noted commentary about the convenience that the CCP very recently said the virus would peak now and it appears to be peaking now.

This could be put down to China having the best information or to saving face by manipulating numbers.

I guess everyone has to form their own opinion on that one...I'm very much on the fence as I don't feel I have enough info/insight to make a judgment call one way or the other.

My experience in the UK is that it's very rare to have a genuine cover up or conspiracy - even if it looks that way it's usually a mix of idiocy, incompetence and bumbling. The general public with any conspiracy theories tend to ascribe a level of genius, planning and strategy that just doesn't exist

I don't know if this translates to the CCP though...

@wheresmymojo I agree with you over genuine cover ups or conspiracy's being rare. I think people jump to this conclusion when there's a general lack of information. I don't think conspiracy is the problem here. Lack of information and decision making maybe, but not conspiracy.

@wheresmymojo
Having lived in China for 12 years I am familiar with the concept of saving face, but regardless of whether this is true or a manipulation of numbers it is, IMO, important from the Chinese to feel that the situation is improving purely in terms of stemming hysteria and panic. I know that restrictions will continue, my landlord has sent me all the details, but some hope is also important.
Some people on this thread seem very worried, but imagine if you were in China and there was a case in your compound or block of flats. I am not talking about. Hubei province, but other provinces in China. You are waiting at home for things to improve, you cannot leave, any positive information is all you have.
I am not condoning the Chinese govt manipulating figures, but panic, hysteria and panic buying also need to be avoided. I have said this many times on different threads - what do you expect China to do that they are not doing already?
Many posters seem concerned about movement of people, self quarantine and flights from China, but these are uk govt decisions, not Chinese ones.

I've already commented about the recorded growth rate and referred to Prof Ferguson's thoughts on the numbers. I do not believe these figures.