Prepping for a pandemic 2

[wheresmymojo]

Second thread on prepping for a potential Coronavirus pandemic...following the latest news and information as well as prepping info.

When quoting estimates like mortality rates, replication rates, incubation periods and similar I try to stick to evidence based, scientific studies and will link to sources (unless already linked to them previously).

Generally speaking I use reputable sources of information like well regarded news outlets for other information and will provide links.

Sometimes I may post things outside of this as 'interesting' or such like. I will always caveat these as to be taken with caution.

As much as possible I am attempting not to link to fake news. It's an evolving picture so may not be 100% successful but if something is later shown to be incorrect I will post a correction.

I’ve been frigging hammered at work for 2 weeks solidly and I work alongside public sector and I’m feeling the burn, let alone my colleagues actually in the public sector.

And you have to consider this - it’s 3 cases. They are taking it extremely seriously. But if there’s nothing to update they won’t.

PHE update daily on the gov.uk website.

@Handsoffisback no I don't believe it to be honest I think most suspected cases are more than likely positive cases, deaths haven't been counted for, people could also be in self isolation and actually died from this I mean what do we know when even the people in China don't have a clue what's going on either . I think many people have passed away and they haven't even been tested so arnt being counted as deceased from the virus.

Hopefully I'm completely wrong but with all the apparent leaked footage I just find it hard to believe and while I take some stuff with a pinch of salt some of it is just terrifying and things don't add up.

NEJM raises possibility of people still being contagious even after they have recovered...

twitter.com/cryptokakuji/status/1223505047553601536?s=21

I hope I don't sound like an extreme conspiracist

@nellodee That would be ironic. Maybe the company asked DoH to try and keep the country on the quiet in case people put 2 & 2 together.

Does anyone think that the government are likely to advise against travel to effected countries in South East Asia shortly? I have family due to leave next week to travel out there for a couple of weeks and I’m really worried.

I think it's possible depending upon how the numbers progress. If they stabilise in those countries - no. If there is further evidence of sustained local epidemic then possibly.

They would allow British citizens to come back though...they won't be stuck out there.

mojo contagious is inflammatory in this situation (pun intended). That’s The same as saying you’re contagious with MRSA. A normal bacteria that lives on your skin, that you could be shedding through excretions.
It is not proved, viable but unproved. That is scaremongering.

Handsoff did you see the post where the deceased numbers were listed extremely high I think in the 20,000s and then it was quickly changed?

FWIW I would still go at the moment. The risk is still very, very small.

Overall, still probably more likely to have a car crash on the way to the airport than catch CV I reckon.

The FCO will update its travel advice if they think the risk is too much.

@RigglinJigglin

I said "raises the possibility that"

That's very different to "proven". I didn't say proven and it is a well established medical journal.

I assume the people on the thread can read information, digest it and form their own opinions and that I'm not dealing with people who can't comprehend what "possibility", "may" and "remains to be proved" mean.

Anyone without this level of reading comprehension should probably follow a different thread.

The "Tencent leak" of "official" numbers has been quite widely discredited.

The only proper news source that ran with it was Taiwan News who have quite the axe to grind with CCP.

I'm not saying it didn't happen as I can't know one way or the other but I do know it would take someone two seconds to mess about with it in photoshop.

@RigglinJigglin

Sorry, that was unnecessarily snappy. I've had a very shit day where some people broke my DH's heart and made him sob his heart out

Handsoff Yes I am also undecided I think it's sensible feel that way.

Hands that’s my point. Feeding the anxiety side of some preppers, I know, I do it myself at home and in work.

Just trying to provide some balance to that statement, that’s all. It happens in responding communities that an ‘if’ is taken as fact then it changes the whole response to a major incident / disaster.

mojo ah forget it, no offence taken

Name change fail 🤣

moonlight not conspiracy theorist. You're almost certainly right but not necessarily because the Chinese government are being secretive:
-They are so overwhelmed in the epicenter of the outbreak that some people will be dying without having been tested and so their deaths won't be recorded as being from the virus. Some of these may not have made it to hospital by choice or because there were no spaces.
-There is evidence that people can test negative for the virus, even when symptomatic, and then later test positive. So some people will have tested negative and then got ill and died and they won't be recorded as dying from the virus.
-As I understand it, the Chinese system for recording deaths is different from ours. In the UK, if you have COPD and then get flu and die from it because you're already weakened from the COPD, then both causes go on the death certificate. In China they just put COPD. Statistically, very few people in China die of flu as they don't record it as such unless there's nothing else wrong with you. This has always been the case. So some deaths may not be recorded as being attributable to n-cov (although we know that many are even when there are underlying conditions, perhaps because they are trying to be as accurate as possible in this circumstance).

A good easy to read article on virus mutation

ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/mutation-adaptation-and-virus-genomes-a-primer-for-the-public/

In summary: all viruses mutate, a mutation isn't necessarily cause for concern, be wary of unofficial posts about mutations because they probably don't know what they're talking about (e.g. posts like "wait until it mutates, then the shit will hit the fan" etc)

mojo I used that at work today in a pandemic presentation

Hi all. Been following this thread and the last for a while now and thought perhaps time to say hi.

At the minute I'm swinging between anxiety/fear back to rationalising and denial

We started a new budget/regime at the beginning of the year so I had been running freezer and cupboard stock down and only buying what we need. Last week I doubled the shop just to restock on tins/pasta/sauces etc. Tomorrow I go shopping again and plan on picking up a bit extra in cleaning supplies and poss more protein that will keep.

It's a strange feeling trying to be cautious but prepare for something that might be nothing but equally might be devastating to our communities. I work in the public sector where myself and colleagues could very well find ourselves on the front line if this becomes a localised epidemic in the uk. Today I went to our store room for something and there on the shelf sat about 6 boxes of the good face masks. I swear it took me five minutes of talking myself down not to swipe a box for my family. I know in reality it is me and my colleagues that would need those masks at work. I also know that right now the belief is our children are at far less risk so the absolute best place for those masks is right there in the store cupboard in case they are needed. But damn, it was hard to walk away from them!

Anyway, I've found this thread a great source of variable information and means I don't need to go near twitter which quite frankly I'm afraid to do! So thanks all.