Prepping for pandemic...

[wheresmymojo]

I was quite blasé about the novel corona virus outbreak but things I've read today have changed my mind.

I'm not usually a prepper but best things to stock up on for a pandemic?

Surgical face masks?
Latex gloves?
Anti bac wipes and hand wash?

auslass Have you read the full thread?

There are reasons experts are concerned:

• There is no treatment
• With the current replication and mortality rates hundreds of thousands would die in this country alone, millions worldwide
• Novel viruses often mutate once they have transferred to humans (can be for better or worse)

It is not like the flu.

For a start it is 30 x the mortality rate of the seasonal flu.

I'm not panicking - I'm going about my daily business as per usual.

However there is a definite possibility of this becoming a global pandemic. That isn't panicking - it is completely in line with expert views in epidemiology.

OYBBK, any chance of a major snow storm to shut everything down for a bit?

I missed the potential case in Birmingham. Hope he's ok. DM reporting that his GP sent him home.

Surgical masks have sold out on Amazon . Ordered ours from Boots.
People are prepping me included . It’s better to be safe than sorry

DM are being a bit disingenuous about how they're reporting the GP.

What happened was that he went to the GP on Monday for an unrelated matter.

Something (maybe he was still coughing or mentioned he'd just had the flu?) prompted his GP to ask him if he'd been to China recently.

He said yes. GP became immediately concerned. Told him to go straight home with no contact with other people (presumably because there are immuno suppressed people at a GP's?) and then the GP ordered an ambulance with haz mats straight to his address to take him in.

I'm not saying that was the perfect response (I don't know what the protocol is) but some are making out the GP basically shrugged their shoulders and sent him home which is pretty unfair.

You're right, I read the full article.
It probably didn't follow protocol, which looks to be keep patient isolated in situ, but there we go.

More concerning is the video appearing to show some of the ambulance crew without full PPE.

It doesn't look like he is has become the epicenter of a cluster though and the timeline would be sufficient for him to have done so if he were contagious with corona.

Anyhow, that's speculation and that isn't very helpful.

Blackeyed, a cold plunge next week, bringing some snow showers to the east and north.
Nothing to really help here, I don't think it would make any diffeeence anyhow.

The minimum mortality rate at the moment is estimated to be c. 3% by epidemiologists, seasonal flu is 0.01%.

I say estimated because actual mortality rates are impossible to be certain about at this stage of a novel virus.

There are lots of factors that could move the mortality rate up or down:

• There could be a lot of milder cases that haven't been reported which would reduce the mortality rate

• There are definitely going to be more deaths out of the current 4400 or so cases where neither death nor recovery has been confirmed yet. There will be a lag of at least 3-10 days between confirming a case and death

• Deaths are likely to have occurred and been noted as 'flu' or 'pneumonia' before the new virus was officially recognised

But...as I said the experts best estimate at the moment is 3% which is 30 x seasonal flu at 0.01%

I haven't seen any research yet about how the virus reacts in colder weather but saw some today suggesting very hot, very tropical environments are likely to be better off.

That doesn't mean it wouldn't stall in cold weather too though...

If it snows heavily, schools close, fewer people go out, less contact with others.

It seems that all we know for sure is that know very little about this virus right now as china is known for massaging figures. Its likely they have many more cases than have been reported. This may be spreading in china due to overcrowding and lifestyle habits. In the west this may not be a particular problem for us, it depends on so much.

Ive stocked up on alchol gel disinfectant, bleach and antibac wipes, (easy to wipe down door handles etc) I always keep three weeks of food in the freezer and have a store cupboard of tins and other household items.

That seems enough to me, given the fact we don't have an identified infection in the uk as yet. By friday we should be starting to see whats coming next, if anything, with that in mind I also have a shopping delivery booked for friday, its easy to cancel if the uk stays free of infection.

Didn't say cure, said treatment. There isn't a cure for the common cold or influenza either. Only options to treat symptoms.

There are options to treat this, some are extreme. Drugs mostly include those that treat HIV which are working in a number of cases. Also, there have been no deaths outside of China.

For those with less severe conditions they're working with meds previously used in SARS, which are also having relatively good degrees of success.

I'm not saying people don't need to concerned. But no one should be panicking.

The likelihood of anyone getting infected outside of Wuhan is low. Border control, education and good hygiene are going to be the best defence.

From a prepper perspective; I think the lockdowns in China are interesting to see and maybe learn from. As well as the medical angle, there’s the fact that people are staying indoors having to possibly ration food, and also without being able to go to work, it raises interesting possibilities about the knock on financial affects even once the lock down is lifted. With lowered wages for the month, presumably rent and bills etc still have to be paid. How many of us could cope with that?

It will be interesting to see what support the Chinese government offers to the people of the locked down cities moving forward, particularly as there have already been people reporting that the government isn’t doing a lot to help at the moment.

It's not entirely mad to prep for an epidemic.I happen to have met 6 Chinese families this week (about 25 people) who seem to have hopped on a plane to the UK because schools and offices are shut over there so it seemed a good time for a trip to visit prospective uni's and schools for their children. Cases in Shanghai where they came from are increasing and there's the 2 week period where you may not have symptoms but could be passing on infection. Any one of the people I've met could be carriers. And a friend from HK arrived in a UK airport and there were no checks. Yet over there schools are shut and children are being asked to stay home and not to gather together. I'm not panicking or prepping at all but the risk of it coming here seems feasible.

HerkyBaby which ones have you ordered? I've been looking on Amazon for a few days and dithering as all the decent ones seem to be out of stock.

I'm getting quite concerned now, over 6,000 cases this morning and 132 deaths. I take drugs for an autoimmune condition which put me at serious risk. I'm concerned about the number of people who don't seem to be taking it seriously; they'll be the ones who are most dangerous to me.

The likelihood of anyone getting infected outside of Wuhan is low. Border control, education and good hygiene are going to be the best defence.

But there are hundreds of people already infected outside of Wuhan and the problem is the infection rate. If you look at the stats showing the reported cases (now only seems to be updated once a day), more people are currently dying than recovering.

I am still relaxed about this but I am taking sensible precautions. For the sake of a few quid I have ordered face masks before they all run out and latex gloves. I already had some of the very thin masks but I've ordered better ones. I've made sure we have cold and flu medication. We have antibac gel and are still working through the brexit stash so have a decent food/toiletries/pet food supply if we had to stay indoors for a bit.

NaturalBornWoman All stock at Boots now sold out....

You can still get them in places like screwfix. FFP3 face masks.

Thanks .

Kjhkj- I read yesterday they are advising against using latex gloves as apparently it makes people less likely to wash their hands lots, which is considered one of the most effective preventive measures for now

Ok thanks. I'll get it done today

BA has suspended flights. I would hope lots of other carriers will cancel flights.

Flights home for UK citizens tomorrow.
Japanese going home today. Asked to stay home for two weeks.
Australians also going, but to Christmas Island for quarantine.