Will 2nd baby be early as well?

[firsttimemummy321]

1st was 2 weeks early spontaneous labour.

I know they say labour is quicker second time around but I was wondering if we should prepare for number 2 to also be a little early or whether there is no correlation? :)

I don’t know if there’s any actual data on this, but my first appeared 2 weeks early and when the second did too, I thought 38 weeks was just when I gave birth. Nothing has been so long and frustrating as weeks 38-42 with number 3! So my advice would be whatever anyone says on here, or whatever statistics you find, who knows what will actually happen to you, so don’t get too set on an expected arrival day!

I can only tell you that it was true for me.

38+1 with baby number 1
38+4 with baby number 2 (two years later)

But I know other mums who have gone overdue with one baby and had another baby prematurely so it's obviously not always the case!

Both mine were early, 37 1/2 weeks with DS1, 38 +2 with DS2, but I don’t think it necessarily stands true.
Apparently my older sister was born 10 days early but I was 4 days late (second baby). My brother was then born a week early too.

In my experience though, mine just cooked earlier, the same for my sister who had my niece at 37+5 as well.

First one 39+2
Second 39 weeks
Third 40+1- felt like he'd never come!

My friend had her first at 37 weeks and her second at 41 weeks so there isn't always a pattern.

There is a bit of correlation but don't count on it! My 1st was 39+2 and my 3rd had to be induced at 40+10.

My first was 38+4
So I expected 2nd around the same, but went to 39+2. So not as early, but didn’t go over/need inducing.

I did some reading on this and found a paper where the authors had analysed a load of data from a hospital in the USA...they concluded that after a 1st "early term" birth (so anything after 37+0 I think) subsequent labours are more likely to be early too, compared with women whose first labour was at 39 weeks or later. But the association was not as strong as that for premature births where a second premature labour was even more likely.

Anecdotally for me: first at 37+6, second at 38+3.

First was 38 weeks and second 40 weeks.