Anyone know what the likelihood is of needing intervention/mechs with second baby, if first baby was normal vaginal birth?

[BotBotticelli]

Just curious. Anyone know of any stats?

I am pregnant with dc2. Had ds1 at 41weeks with just gas and air, vaginal birth.

But for some reason have niggling fears this time about it all going pear shaped.

How likely is it? Are odds of a natural labour better in my favour this time, having had a natural birth last time? Or is the counter re set to zero, as it were, and the chances of any kind of birth are equally likely, as with the first one??

Gah - title should read intervention/EMCS obviously. Not mechs.

I seem to remember reading somewhere that the counter resets to zero after 5 years but before that you are likely to have a similar birth. No idea if that's true or not- but anecdotally among my friends an "easy" first birth has usually meant an "easy" birth, but a difficult first birth has not meant a difficult second one. Evolutionarily that would make sense, I suppose. No actual facts to offer you though!

I have definitely read somewhere that your chances to have a normal delivery are a lot better, if you have managed it once. But I can't find the source for that any more. Makes sense though, at least you know that your body is capable.

I am pregnant with #2 and know what you mean about niggling fears. I read somewhere that the biggest indicator of a vaginal delivery is a previous vaginal delivery, even if the first involved interventions. So this would mean we are lower risk than we were with DC1. If I find the link will post it.

This Australian article has some stats. 96% chance of a second vaginal delivery and less than 2% chance of a cs.

Should read 'second vaginal delivery without interventions.'

One site suggests:

"The good news is second time around the labour is usually about half as long as the first and often it is even shorter than this (around 6 hours). If you had a normal vaginal birth with your first baby your chances of having this outcome again is around 96 percent. If you had a forceps delivery with your first birth you have over an 80 percent chance of having a normal vaginal birth next time. Women who have a vacuum extraction (baby pulled out using a suction cup on the head) for the first birth have over a 91 percent chance of having a normal vaginal birth with a following baby."

Googling also suggests that if you have an epidural, your chances of a normal delivery are the same as the chances of a woman labouring for the first time without an epidural. IYSWIM.

I had an EMCS first time round with a very stuck baby and even then my chances of a normal delivery second time were given by my consultant as around 75%. I fell into the 25% unfortunately.

It's normal to feel niggles second time. It's almost a 'well I was lucky first time round, no way can I be that lucky again' type feeling. It's based on nothing though apart from your own anxieties. You are overwhelmingly likely to have a normal delivery and if you don't, well the drugs are pretty good.

Make sure you know what you'd do in each eventuality (if you need intervention, there are choices within that) because exercising control and feeling informed is what helps. You probably won't need to explore those options but knowledge of them can't hurt.

Best of luck with the birth and enjoy your new baby.

I think it starts to get more complex with more deliveries, so the stats go something like first is hardest, gets easier for number 2 and 3 (and 4?) and then it gets more complicated because some things are more likely with multiple pregnancies (like placenta previa)

Don't remember where I read it though

The consultant who delivered DS (forceps) said first births are often tricky, second births much more likely to be straightforward because your body has done it all before. He was right. DD came fast and my body did it all without any intervention needed.

Thank you all that's very reassuring. Whoever said it's like "I can't be that lucky again" is so right. I feel so lucky that my first birth went so well (and ultimately that's all it is: luck) that I really want to believe it can be the same again.

I have the added "fear" that ds1 was 9lb4oz so I am worrying that this next baby will be a 10 pounder, he/she will get stuck, shoulder dystocia etc etc etc :-(

I suppose it's in the nature of being pregnant to worry about something though, isn't it??

Hijacking a bit - does anyone know if a first straightforward precipitate labour is likely to obey that law of being half as fast as the first?

DD is only a month old so this is just idle curiosity but if my labour with her was only about 90min then does it follow that any future DC2 would be closer to 45 min?