I don't want to vote Tory...come and explain to me why Labour's spending plans won't end in disater

[Litchick]

I'm a life long Labour supporter...but I'm really worried.

Let's put aside the Iraq war, ID cards, the disgraceful attempt to stop home education etc etc...

What's really worrying me is the economy. We owe so much. And yes I know some of it came from bailing out the banks which I think was the right thing to do ( if painful), but a lot of it is the refusal to curb spending when tax receipts are down.

I've been told by many an unreconstructed Keynesian that spending through the recession is the right way to go.

But......if we keep borrowing won't we eventually be unable to serice the debt? And what if our credit rating is down graded won't that exacerbate the situation?

Please tell me why, economically, it's the right course of action.

Have you read the Stephanie Flanders BBC blog? here

She's good and sensible - and not partly political. What she does point out is the difference between UK and Greece and the eurozone.

She also says that growth is important. Now some say that Cameron's decision to immediately withdraw money and slash spending will see the economy contract immediately, like Ireland.

Whereas growth is KEY to cutting debt and recovering an economy

Also it might not end in disaster because they are clear on raising NI contributions to defend public services. These do matter imo

Look at two countries.

Ireland had a massive problem. They took timely action and cut quite painfully last year. It was difficult, but they are getting through it. Their economy is still very fragile but seems to be through the worst.

Then look at Greece. They had a massive problem, but ignored it. Look at what is happening there.

I will leave you to draw your own inferences.

But Ireland has the highest unemployment rate in the whole of europe!

I'm with you here Litchick - would love to be persuaded NOT to vote Tory - in fact I usually go to vote first thing but am putting it off today because I would love to change my mind!

I feel like Brown has never grasped that micro-managerialism may create jobs but they are not economically productive jobs - they won't help us sell things abroad and pay our debts.

Flanders also v. good on the differences between Greece and UK Litchick

Thank you. I will look at that blog.

God, it's like we need a crystal ball. GB syas keep spending to get the economy growing, which will eventually lead to reducing the debt. DC says you can't keep borrowing money you don't have or ultimately you will struggle to service the debt.

Horrible, horrible.

There is something relevant - which I don't understand - about how our debt is mature, and that makes a difference. I'm not sure why tbh

Also GB and LD's accept that we need to tax more, DC doesn't. So he's finding the money elsewhere - and it's not just though paper clips is it? It's slashing public services.

C'mon Lit chick. Go read the Johann Hari piece in The Independent. Remember your moral compass girl!

ahundredtimes

It is immoral to put the short-term ahead of the medium and long-term. That is what Labour are doing.

Of course I supported increasing government spending through the recession, but there was absolutely no excuse for borrowing instead of paying down debt in the boom years of 2002-2007.

The point about our debt being mature is that it needs to be refinanced over decades rather than every two years. It is one thing in our favour.

Another thing in our favour is the fact we have a flexible economy (for which you can thank Mrs Thatcher) and so are more competitive and have better prospects for growth relative to our European peers.

Yet another thing is that we are not in the euro, can set our own exchange rates. The devaluation in the pound has taken a lot of the pain for us.

Nevertheless, eventually we will have to face up to Gordon Brown's debt. Putting off debt just makes it worse.

We are already paying more in interest every year than we spend on our schools. That doesn't seem very moral, or a good use of taxpayers' money, to me.

Let's face it, we're not economists and even if we were, we'd still be disagreeing about the best way forward.

We could be in a much worse situation now than we actually are. I wonder where we'd be now if the tories had been in power over this last few years. What would the tories have done about the collapsing banks?

For me it comes down to which party is going to protect the most disadvantaged people in our society. It comes down to a blind leap of faith on the basis of the party's fundamental values.

I do understand why people don't want to vote labour this time. But why anyone would think the tories are a better option, I really can't understand

Molesworth

It is all very well to talk about values, but if you spend money on debt interest payments rather than schools, hospitals, and welfare it isn't very clever, is it?

Yes, true.

I expect whoever is in charge we are heading for gloomy times either way.

FGS, this is all quite ridiculous. People don't believe in GB, but will still vote for him because they just don't want to vote for Tories?

IRDGI!

I think even the economists aren't sure are they? What hope us the voters.

And whilst I agree that we should always aim to protect the disadvantaged I don't think that we can do that blindly, borrowing when we simply can't afford it.

Oh I don't know. It's making my brain hurt.

I've never ever voted Labour (have been voting since 1984) and can't understand why people vote for them. Old Labour are still there in the shape of Ed Balls and his ilk. I prefer Tory pragmatism to Labour ideology every time.

It makes my head hurt too. And like you say, even if we were economists we wouldn't agree on what is going to happen or what is the best way forward anyway.

Also none of them have been completely clear on what they're going to do or what is required

On a really simple/basic level isn't it like this:
if you keep things going then people are spending and jobs are kept and business afloat. If you get through this bit and cut slowly back later when we are more stable,it will have less of an impact and people will keep their jobs.

If you cut cut cut, then people won't spend, which means people will loose their jobs, then there is less demand in manufacturing or anything and business go down and there is less money in the economy.

I personnaly remember my local industrial estate in the last recession, and the businesses went down like dominoes, one after the other-it was a ghost town. During the recent years and today it is busy and seems thriving in comparison and although times have been hard it is no where near a ghost town and business have kept afloat which in turn gives people jobs so that keeps the economy on the up.

I also understand that the conservatives policies will mean 40000 public sector jobs going.

Scary - for me, it's very deep in my psyche. My Dad was a miner. I remember clause 28. I remember the poll tax. I remember the callousness of the eighties.

But ti be fair, that is all old news. I do think that DC is a political and intellectual light weight. And osbourse...well...words fail me.

Well Labour's spending has already got us in a mess so I don't trust them to sort it out now. They've been in charge for 13 years and the country is skint.

I'm taking heed from the fact that most large business have come out in favour of Tories, as has the Finanacial Times and everyone I know on a personal level who runs their own small business is voting Tory.

ST. Yes except the Tories did pick up an ideology didn't they - and has been their problem for the last 13 years. I have no idea whether they have thrown it off or not, time will tell.

They're the party of the Establishment, traditionally, which allowed them to be pragmatic because they were, basically, In Charge, landed gentry, the church, the toffs etc.

Being pragmatic then became a code word for maintaining their own interests really. Also allows for slippery things like not opposing apartheid or Clause 28. "Oh' they say, 'we're being pragmatic, this is sensible'

whereas actually it's something else!

NY - in theory that seems right. But in the meantime we will have to keep borrowing to meet all the spending pledges. Which makes the deficit worse and worse...it's all so circular.

One also wonders if we won't end up with enormous tax hikes at the ned of the day, to keep meeting the payments.

The institute of fiscal studies said the lib dems had slightly better policies than the other parties to sort the mess out so if you've had enough of labour and don't want the tories why don't you vote lib dem?

Yes, LC I think we will too.

So now you have to decide who has the fairest tax system!

They would! Conservatives are all about small business man and big. It was the conservatives who encouraged them to borrow, borrow borrow form the banks last time. And what became of those people? Repossesions, banktruptcy etc. The conservatives tax break for the top earners would also win the top large businesses vote. And small businesses may like the conservatives mp's thoughts on doing away eventually with the minimum wage and some workers rights that labour have brought in. It means more profit for them.

Well ther's fair...and then fair for me and my family.

To be frank, I have a lot more to gain form the tories in that regard.

NY - that's true, but GB says the way out of the recession is growth...so by his own standards we need to support and encourage small and large business.