Contradiction between 3 days of supplies v defence spending

[Scuttlingupabove]

It's all a bit weird. We are now supposed to have 3 days of provisions in case "something" happens. The Government has told us to. The German government has given a comprehensive list to the German population for supplies per capita but they have said for 10 days.

And yet there's no corresponding rise in UK defence spending and nothing has been done on an urgent basis. Despite the former Defence Secretary resigning because we aren't defended adequately. Whereas European defence spending is increasing massively in many countries. We haven't secured our borders either even though we are aware that Russian subs are hovering over our sea cables.

If we are being told we need to survive on our own, potentially presumably this is due to an attack of some sort. So why aren't we rearming quickly so we try and deter this attack from happening?

This does seem very disconnected thinking. We always assume governments know what they are doing but I'm not confident this one does.

Not to point out the obvious but there is the English Channel.

What do you mean? Is the Channel the solution to our defence?

Either:

Due to a lack of money HMG can't get an increase in defence spending past their own back benches and so are having to appeal to the population to do the best they can.

Or..

The short term threat isn't military, it's more a case of worries about the state of for example the national grid.

Or ...a combination of both.

Err the advice isn't just because there could be an attack. The government is more concerned with possible natural disasters, storms/floods that sort of thing that would disrupt power, water, food supplies etc.

Literally, yes.

Why do you think we haven’t been invaded for a 1000 years?

The three days of provisions are for various things.

water cuts (my village had a burst water main two weeks ago, no water for 24 hours). Power cuts.
fridge cyberattacks are making the news.

Russia is unlikely to invade any (more) European countries but sabotage and cyberattacks are very likely.

defence spending is up in Europe because countries that do not have a major sea barrier between them and Russia don’t trust Russia. Major invasion unlikely, terrorist acts and etc very likely and almost certainly already occurring

This poster nails it. The trash press have whipped everyone up into thinking war is imminent

The first option is rather worrying. Are backbenchers stopping the PM doing what is necessary and what is his number one duty ie national defence? It does seem that could be why there is this glaring dissonance. Although AB doesn't seem too interested in defence.

The second option would be possible apart from the fact quite a few European countries are also being given this warning. Solar flare (although the sun is apparently quiet at the moment)?

If there's a nuclear attack we have to stay inside for up to 3 days coincidentally although Im not sure Id be desperate to leave the house..

You do know that they have discovered how to make things fly, don't you? They were lobbing things at us in the Blitz over 80 years ago.

We haven't been told that though. We assume it's something like that. We hope it is. But we haven't had this sort of specific advice before despite us regularly having natural disasters. I hope that it isnt a military attack obviously as we won't last long.

3 days is the time you need to be in the house for nuclear debris to fall to the earth.

Im not sure a cyber attack or nuclear attack respects the Channel. I think there are quite a few bombs that can travel more than 21 miles too....

Why would war not be imminent? Russia is checking out our airspace and under sea cables. The excuse for Ukraine by Putin is NATO expansion and we are in NATO. There have been attacks on UK soil already. We aren't defended...clearly as loads of people just get in to the country without being stopped. MI6 says Iranian operatives are already here.

I mean, I hope there isn't a war but the Cold War has ended and there's no real defence guarantee from the US anymore.

I think you're muddling different things. The Be Ready campaign is about the government encouraging people to take practical steps so they're more resilient and prepared if everyday services are disrupted. Plenty of European countries have issued this kind of advice as standard for a long time, and to be honest, the UK has been pretty complacent in the past. It doesn't mean anyone is suggesting an attack is imminent. At the same time, successive governments have neglected and under- funded defence over a long time but the current global uncertainty - Russian aggression and conflict in the middle east - has (rightly) pushed defence spending back up the political agenda. So, that's why there's a big political debate about how - and how fast - defence can be better funded.

The UK still has one of the top ten biggest militaries in the world and membership of Nato. Which also includes some of the biggest militaries in the world even if you exclude USA as an unknown entity. I think saying we are unprotected is a massive exaggeration.

Im pretty sure the Channel isnt going to stop the Russians, given we can't stop dingies. Plus we are in NATO so if a country in it is invaded we will have to respond. The US won't help us. We have a tiny standing army and a lot of people who won't want to fight to defend themselves or their homes (apparently).

Id just prefer the government to put a bit of welly in the military options rather than rely on us to have enough beans.

Russia has been checking out our defences in the air and on the sea since at least 1945.

they do regular probes.

it doesn’t make the news anymore than dog bites man makes the news.

Havent they wargamed this and we last less than a week?

Lets hope so. I dont think the military chiefs seem to agree with you. Arent they saying Russia have hugely stepped up their operations.

I think 3 days supplies means nukes. Its too specific.

3 days is the time you need to be in the house for nuclear debris to fall to the earth

You might need a lot more time than that TBH.

Three days is possibly HMGs best optimistic guess at how long it might take to get power/comms restored to some degree following a widespread outage due to major system failure, cyber attack or vaguely natural causes.

..Oh, and the English Channel would not be much of a barrier for anyone who wanted to disrupt, say, UK power generation and distribution by airborne means....the Russians have been targetting Ukrainian power stations and power distribution infrastructure using missiles and drones for a long time now...but I don't think thats the reason for the three day figure, but who knows..

Im sure you are right. But there is a difficulty with encouraging people to ensure they can last on their own (without saying why) and not spending enough on defence. I think its weird. Its like they are ruling out a miltary attack as something we need to worry about. Which seems to be against the advice of the security and military services.

I completely understand that anxiety. And TBF I don't think any nation, can or should ever rule out a military attack altogether. But I personally don't think there's anything sinister in the Be Ready campaign, specifically.

Pls take a minute to consider the ease of a land vs sky or sea invasion.

And if that’s too hard then look at the evidence. 1000 years without war on our shores. Yes there was the blitz. But it’s simply not the same.

we are very very lucky to live on a democratic island currently run by a bloke who actually seeems not to hate to electorate.

Basic common sense advice from the UK Government has been blown completely out of proportion to ‘prepare for Armageddon’.

The Uk would be top of the list to get nuked simply for those reasons. Apparently tricky to invade although thousands seem to be able to and they seem to have invented drones. Population that won't fight apparently. A PM who doesnt want to rearm. So take the UK out first. Thats fairly logical for any enemy of Europe

We dont need to go to extremes though do we? A basic attack such as taking out power plants should do the trick. Why not rearm a bit to deter such an attack? Like we used to. Which is why they didnt happen.

We are complacent now because we used to be defended.