Reform lost 6 by elections this week 🎉

[TheRealSmurfette]

Some good news to start the week!
The mainstream media might be quiet about it, but the numbers don’t lie: Reform UK just lost SIX by-elections in a single week.

Their momentum is officially hitting a wall. On Thursday, they failed to win across the UK and even lost the incumbent seats they were supposed to defend:

• Amble Ward (Northumberland) — LOST (Gained by Labour)
• Hirst Ward (Northumberland) — LOST (Reclaimed by Labour)
• Claremont Ward (Blackpool) — LOST (Held by Labour)
• Long Whatton & Diseworth Ward (NW Leicestershire) — LOST (Held by Conservatives)
• Wick & East Caithness Ward (Highland) — LOST (Stormed by Lib Dems)
• Forth & Endrick Ward (Stirling) — LOST (Held by Conservatives) about:blank 1, 2]

The right-wing vote is splitting down the middle, squeezing them out in low-turnout battles. Proof that real, local communities are seeing through the rhetoric.

Keep it up lads! 🙌

I'm pretty sure a GE will focus minds. All three right wing parties, and the majority of the UK, know we simply can't tolerate another 5 years of this socialist nonsense. The numbers are there and they will consolidate when it matters.

I don't think it is proof of anything as these are local council type elections, though I wish it were. I dread the thought of Reform getting more powerful.

It's how people vote in a general election that will really matter. I do hope that the downward trajectory of Reform opinion continues, but opinion polling has been wrong at times in the past.

I'd certainly never vote for them, but sadly the far right has been on the rise recently.

The numbers are there and they will consolidate when it matters.

Opinion polling shows Labour increasing their share at the moment, and a slight shift away from Con/Ref combined, before any tactical voting.

We can’t take any more as a country of the right wing nonsense that’s brought the country to its knees. Brexit has wrecked the economy. Public services are in the toilet due to more than a decade of underinvestment. People can’t get medical appointments. Prisons are overflowing. This isn’t down to this Government, they are down to long term strategies and we can’t afford to go back to another right wing government that wants to use public services to enrich themselves, as in Michelle Mone, and why hasn’t she been prosecuted.

A lot of people are still not sure what Reform standfor/would put in a manifesto, lots of talking but promises and pledges etc are not legally binding...

Labour always have a really good ground game on getting out the vote in by-elections. Honestly everything they do is going to push people towards reform. I’m not a reform voter so it gives me no pleasure to say that. Really worried about a serious bond crisis.

Most people voted for them in the last general election as a protest and wake up call to the main parties. They have gained no significant traction at all.

I really don't want a left wing government but I'm not particularly bothered about councils as people vote how they want their own area to be run so if they vote socialist that's up to them. I personally would like a Conservative government and council rather than Reform however. Reform really need to look at their selection process. Apparently the Reform councellor in Hirst didn't attend a single meeting in 6 months so I'm not surprised he got the boot.

Nah mate, unless we move to PR, tactical voting will do for Reform.

You saying if a seat was Labour and held by Labour then it is counts as a Reform loss?

In which Labour and the Tories both lost 3 bi-elections this week.

No, it's really simple: if you contest a by-election and then you don't win that by-election, you have lost that by-election. So if a council seat is Tory, Reform contests it and then the Lib Dem wins, Reform therefore lost that by-election. As did all the other parties. Hope that's clear enough for you.

So if this post was made a week ago the news would have been that Labour lost 5 bi-elections. And now Labour have lost a total of 8 bi-elections in the past 2 weeks.

They are doing really badly aren't they! so much for the Burnham Bounce.

Love the username.

My black Labrador is a floating voter. He will vote for whoever holds the best snacks.

That's if he ever existed at all....

The Burnham Bounce seems to be alive and kicking if Westminster polls are anything to go by. There's the outcome of the investigation into Farage's £5m bung to come, the outcome of the Met investigations, the criminal investigations into several Reform councillors. And of course there's the fact that the only Westminster by-election Reform has won has been Farage vs a bin. All this without even touching on tactical voting...

My dog will be disappointed.

You're lucky mine has been radicalized by far right country pubs, did you manage to keep yours in the city leftie champagne bars? Mines had to be signed up for the Pawvent Programme.

Mine likes a good farage I mean forage.

Socialist?! 😆 I bloody wish!

@pointythings

if Westminster polls are anything to go by

Poll percentages don’t mean anything under the FPTP electoral system. The last general election demonstrated that.

Polls predicted a Labour win. That's what happened.

Personally I prefer PR.

@pointythings

Personally I prefer PR.

Neither the Conservative nor the Labour Party will ever agree to that.

Polls predicted a Labour win.

After 14 years of a Conservative government, I would say that was an easy prediction based on history.

1979-1997 Conservatives 18 years
1997- 2010 Labour 13 years
2010-2024 Conservatives 14 years

2024 Labour win with 34% of the vote but more doubled seats won from 203 to 412 even though the actual votes received were free than in 2019 which was considered the worst in 84 years?

Look at the 1992 general election results. A shock win for the Conservatives.

So, I would say again that Polls are not reliable

I agree with that. They give a broad outline and over time indicate trends.

Right now, they are not trending in Reform's favour.

@pointythings

Right now, they are not trending in Reform's favour.

Even if Reform were ahead in the polls percentages, I would not bet on them to win the next general election based on FPTP.

Nor would I. They have made themselves loathed to such an extent that people will vote tactically to keep them out. It's quite an achievement.