When & how will Burnham’s honeymoon come to an end?

[Theblueyonder]

Burnham’s leadership has been relatively free of drama, so far, and certainly when compared to his hapless predecessor.

What do we think will represent Burnham’s first real test? The budget, or something else?

He called Danny Tommo a racist, for organising largely peaceful protests

"Peaceful protests" is not a phrase that should ever need qualifying.

Any evidence that Mr Thomas isn't a racist?

I think the budget may prove the moment any ‘honeymoon’ ends.

Doing nothing is not an option - the lack of any fiscal latitude excludes that possibility. Which means more tax - as Burnham/Healey dare not face down the back benches on the welfare budget.

The thread topic isn't 'what are our personal views on Andy Burnham' - on which I am confident you and I are not going to reach an agreement. The question was about when the Prime Minister's popularity might wane, and my personal opinion is it won't, until his political opponents start spending less time and energy attacking him, with attack lines that are clearly not resonating with the majority of the electorate, and more time presenting their own positive, constructive visions for the country.

Wishful thinking on your part.

Yes, and based on a terrifyingly simple premise.

There are more and more net receivers, and fewer and fewer net contributors in the UK.

This economic model is not sustainable, and something will soon give.

Why? That’s not a major factor. It’s more to do with how people feel about what he’s doing.

To give an example his SM posts have all been chummy and vibes but the petrol station one was met with ridicule and yeh right comments. Nothing to do with attack lines or opponents but the economic reality that’s incoming and the lack of resonance around Burnham lines that previously had worked.

Any evidence he is? The onus is on the prosecution to prove beyond reasonable doubt, not the to other way round.

I always hear such pronouncements in the same vein as predictions about what scores England will get against what teams as they win the world cup.

Are you saying you don't think how disliked the other political parties are is a factor in how popular the Prime Minister currently is? Because I definitely think it is. And I think he's going to continue to do well for as long as people believe he's better than the other options available.

I do agree that the fuel map post was really misjudged, but TBF it's the first misstep the Prime Minister has made on social media, and it's pretty remarkable that him getting the kind of negative engagement that most politicians get on pretty much every post they put out was headline news.

Wishful thinking on your part.

😂

That’s not the case either. Kemi gets a huge amount of positivity on her IG. Farage idk I haven’t looked lately.

It’s not much to do with whether they use attack lines or not, Burnham’s trajectory will depend on whether he’s ridiculed over that matey vibe. He’s put a lot of store into SM and if it becomes where he just gets that fuck off response it’s a major channel for him.

I'm still waiting for the sky to fall in after the 1997 election.

Trust me, I'll know a wolf when I hear it.

According to data compiled by New World Wealth, the UK lost 10,800 millionaires in 2024, in the first full year that Labour came to power (a significant increase from prior years), translating to roughly one millionaire leaving every 45 minutes. This group included around 78 centi-millionaires (worth over £100 million) and 12 billionaires.

My DH's brother being one of them as he's in the process of finalising on a property in Greece, and he will take his taxes with them and run his business from there. That's probably a net annual loss to the UK government taxation of £2 million annually. That's equivalent of approx 400 average taxpayers, and for every one of the wealthy who leaves, the rest of us still remaining will have to make up the difference some how, unless of course we want to drastically slash public services and/or borrow more money?

But Labour have a plan apparently !!!

I don’t trust you, though.

I don’t know you.

Labour may well have a plan, but it will not include growth - quite the opposite.

Badenoch has got a lot of flak in the right wing media for her lynching pronouncement.

Plus many posters were adamant Starmer was staying.

Really?

Did they also back Rayner, right up to the point of her first ‘resignation’?

I take your point that all politicians get a mixed reception on social media, but just statistically Andy Burnham's social media has up until now massively out perfomed his opponents, both on reach and on positive engagement (until the fuel map - which you're absolutely right, landed really badly). I think we might actually be in agreement that the attack lines being used against Andy Burnham absolutely aren't going to be what reverses his fortunes. Which is why I wish his opponents would stop trotting them out and focus on a constructive, pragmatic vision of their own instead.

I guess so. I remember a wall of Starmer support in the lead up to his ousting. It did take some time for him to be dislodged.

God, you’re right.

Reset after reset and then his last desperate ‘PM for ten years’ speech.

Personally, I have a great deal of respect for Starmer for what he has done for the Labour Party and on international stage.

I remember a wall of Starmer hate from before the GE.

I don’t think it matters re last part. There’s clear separation on policies and they each are setting out their approaches.

If you look at Kemi’s IG most is really pretty good for a politician. Definitely positive, especially with LFW and recent speeches.

But no it’s not all about that, not as the major channel. AB has put a lot into SM so we’ll see if it holds.