When & how will Burnham’s honeymoon come to an end?

[Theblueyonder]

Burnham’s leadership has been relatively free of drama, so far, and certainly when compared to his hapless predecessor.

What do we think will represent Burnham’s first real test? The budget, or something else?

They know they’re in last chance saloon. They’re not stupid.

They've got do - they have literally no else to take replace him with.

Erm…

This all presupposes that Burnham even tests them, of course.

There are around 4-5 Westminster voting intention Polls each week, apart from 2, they’ve lead every single one since July.
Things may well change but at the moment they’re doing well. And I cheered this afternoon when he announced he will seek closer ties with the EU. Most sensible people realise it’s one of the best ways to improve our economy.
And as an example a ferry route from Poole to France has stopped today. All agree Brexit is the main reason. It used to carry a lot of freight as well as passengers, however due to Brexit the freight carrying has almost collapsed. They will now do a route from France to Northern Ireland as there is no Brexit paperwork there!! Well done Brexiteers!

Why do you think there are constant snap election rumours?

It’s not about Reform, it’s an attempt to keep the back benchers in check.

Because Farage is fucking desperate for one. Or at least he was until the Russian bot farms took a hit.

I do hope you are right, and that AB can strong-arm them into making the sensible decisions that are needed.

I don’t think strong arming is his style somehow. I think he’ll persuade them though.

I disagree.

It’s because he has zero mandate, and he knows it. He wants Healey to kick the budget into the long grass, but the markets will not settle for that. Look at the IFS’s comments.

The UK is in a fiscal position so weak that the country is now at the day-to-day mercy of events and financial markets - combined with a government too weak to make the major changes needed to strengthen the country structurally. It almost feels as though a sovereign debt crisis might be preferable. Something to force the massive structural reforms that successive governments have been unwilling to undertake. A painful but necessary reset.

France seems well on its way. An almost unstoppable trajectory, driven by an insatiable public appetite for welfare and complete political gridlock.

Enjoy.

I don’t know.

I think Burnham might have threatened the backbenchers with the nuclear option of a snap election.

But of course there’s also all that you mentioned as well.

I agree re France. It shows where constant demands for borrowing and spending end up. There’s little room to resolve it.

The lunacy of the UK’s welfare budget is now all over the foreign press, too.
The WSJ has run a great piece.

What an embarrassment this Labour government has made of the UK.

Yes so one would assume Andy Burnham would be busy putting things right. But no.

Hes not got that long to start showing the country what hes made of rather than chatting on. Only 2 years. Unless he goes for a GE but the poll suggests he will lose his majority so won't be able to get things done at all then. He'd better get off tiktok...

He will call snap election in 2027.
Budget will be "do no harm" and don't spook the voters.

So everyone feels relief on 28th Oct, then EU forum in Nov, promise of a better trade deal and "hope" of growth.

Then election next year. You better spend all your savings and investments before then, otherwise it all goes to HMRC.

ETA: if he calls election very soon, when Reform is losing popularity but still splits the right vote and Tory aren't ready yet, he will return to Parliament with either much smaller majority or still the largest party and will form government, possibly with LibDem coalition. But with his EU move he's likely to pick up LD votes.

Sorry but he is so out of his depth. Talks to the electorate like they are grown ups? Don’t forget he spent 12 months on his coup! He told the Ashton in Makerfield grown ups that he wouldn’t try to return the U.K. to the EU, they voted leave! He told the grow ups on his earlier podcast that Russia had interfered in Brexit, then in the HoC he denied saying it! He said he would stop all homelessness, said that to the grown ups in Manchester too, it actually went up under his watch. Other opponents should start following suit? What arrange a coup, say things to please the electorate then deny saying it? Sounds like a great plan. Let’s see after the budget how popular he is.

Sorry but that is the job of the opposition to hold him to account.

Aw well Burnham talks to the electorate like grown ups and his social media is whoopi do, so not all is lost.

He continues to open gob before engaging brain

They’re not though.

Yep agree. He just says whatever, including lies.

Plus of course the other parties aren’t just going to say we agree.

It is absolutely their job to hold him to account, and I wish they would do that, by asking rigorous, intellectually coherent questions on policy instead of bandying about contradictory insults. It is also the opposition’s job to work constructively with the government on key issues for the good of the country - and again, they’re not doing that either.

They need to stop the incessant point scoring. Why for example, are they arguing against adjusting the triple lock, when all serious economists argue it’s necessary to get the debt down? They claim to be the party of fiscal responsibility, so they need to act like it, and stop talking to the electorate like we’re stupid.

It is a shame, because I think Kemi Badenoch is an intelligent, capable and articulate politician but I think the team around her are letting her down badly.

I just don’t think he’s terribly bright.

Combine that with the apparent need to people please, and it doesn’t bode well for the UK (economy)…

Why for example, are they arguing against adjusting the triple lock, when all serious economists argue it’s necessary to get the debt down?

It’s a mystery to me when just about every Tory former chancellor is saying the same thing. Actually it isn’t that surprising because their voter base runs old and they can’t risk alienating it. The same reason that Hunt didn’t do it despite being clear that it’s necessary.

You mention the triple lock, and yet I am not sure how one can ignore the removal of the two child benefit cap, at the same time.

Triple lock predicted GBP 15bn savings by 2040 versus say GBP 3bn per annum cost of removing the two child benefit cap (i.e. approx twice the forecast amount of the triple lock savings). Insanity.

Inflation aside.