Will there be a General Election before 2027?

[EEexpat]

As polls have tipped slightly in favour of Labour, will Andy Burnham call a general election before 2027? Kemi Badenoch thinks he might.

Nah

There are numerous countries with higher debt relative to GDP than the UK.

@BIossomtoes I admire your optimism about the Left wing who are nearly like Zack 'the boob whisperer'. It is true that we are doing better than most of the G7. We still have a huge problem with productivity.

Rail Unions have repeated that they will strike at Chiltern Railways because they do not want driver only trains they want another crew member. Single operator trains are approved by Safety Regulator. Many trains eg London underground and Overground are safe with only the driver. But the union wants to halt productivity advance by employing an extra person.

No.

You don’t admire my optimism in the slightest. And your comment about the government being like the Greens is risible.

I have said elsewhere that it is nice to have a real politician in charge rather than a legalistic robot. I don't think his speech was equal to Kinnock laying into the Liverpool Militant group. Although he is Labour he will be better for the country than many others we know.

A Sidenote, but does anyone else like both Kemi and Andy? They are both very different in their views (obviously) but I find them both articulate, seem to genuinely care, have a good understanding of people and can conduct themselves well. I think it’s refreshing to have two people leading both of the main parties this way. I will vote Tory (I know, I know not the best place to say that) but I can admire Andy at the same time.

Sorry, I thought you meant before 2029. I don't think even the back benches will risk losing a majority at this stage. After 2029, it is gloves off for all, and his success will depend on whether the changes he wants to make bring benefit or not.

I would say that there will not be a general election before the latest date allowed in 2029. Burnham has effectively outlined his manifesto for the next election, but it’s not clear what he intends to do between now and the next election.

30 year UK gilts have gone above 6%.

We are not doing better than the other G7 countries. That is nonsense. We’re in deep trouble.

Burnham may or may not survive the next year. But his spending commitments certainly won’t live that long. It’s all fantasy. Who in their right mind believes any of the tosh that Burnham is spouting? Labour is a very, very gullible party.

We can only hope that Burnham is actually a very cunning man who is misleading his credulous MPs and supporters and that he’s planning to take an axe to public spending once he’s hoodwinked the party into believing that he’s an old fashioned Bennite. Doubtful, but we must hope.

I think bond markets (that he doesn't want to be in honk with) will force him to.

As @DenizenOfAisleOfShame says, UK gilts reached 6% today.

For comparison - Greece is 4.4%, Germany 3.57%, France 4.94%

This matters a lot.

He will have to continue raising taxes and significantly only to be able to service debt with nothing to show for it in terms of improvement of services. By raising taxes he will reduce economy even more, so the pie will be shrinking. Public will be angry so his chance to win in 2029 will be much lower than now.

He could press ahead with unfunded spending, giving out free sweeties and wait it out till 2029 if he didn't hope to win, so scorched earth tactics, living huge mess to the next government. But he seriously does, so his hope is to have "honest conversation" with public and call GE next year.

You're my political twin!

Andy has charisma and this helps him a lot.
But I'm definitely voting Tory in next GE

Considering how little he spoke about business during his speech, I think it inevitable that there will be tax rises. He doesn't appear to be outward looking from what I heard.

Whilst he is a good orator, especially in light of his recent bereavement, and he didn't shy away from some unpalatable topics, it wasn't really enough to butter my parsnips I'm afraid.

I wait with baited breath.

@HappiestSleeping

I'd recommend you this FT.com article
At least Burnham doesn’t pretend to care about growth

There is nothing to wait I'm afraid.
The sooner he calls election the better. He might end up with majority still but much reduced one. The most likely scenario as of today is hung parliament and that's the best thing which can happen to us in given circumstances.

There was an entire section above business and creating conditions for growth.

I might have missed it - could you link please?
I mean any discussion about policies or steps, not slogans?

I’m not sure about that. It’d be much of the same if a left wing coalition but messier.

I get the earlier point about rising debt servicing costs. Burnham sells in freebies and the markets react. They won’t like a left wing coalition either.

You can watch it. It’s available on numerous outlets.

Thank you.

I don't have it in me to watch any party conference.

I prefer reading, takes much less time, and from the outlets I usually use (FT, Sky, BBC, Reuters) I haven't seen anything at all. I have seen "we are pro business" slogans, but unlike second houses repossessions, triple lock, social care, special welfare schema for youngsters, I haven't seen anything about steps to encourage economic growth.

So I'll keep my view for now, but I'm happy to change it based on facts.

That's exactly why he won't call an election though. He isn't that stupid (with all the previously mentioned caveats), and I don't think the back benches will force him to either.

It wouldn't make any difference if he did though really, it isn't as if there are capable people in any other party waiting in the wings. Our choices appear to be bumbling on with Burnham, or bumble on with someone else with all the disruption a change of party would bring. Neither option is especially appealing, but having stability for a while is probably the least worst scenario.

I doubt he will soon as why not see three years out with a majority rather than battling with other leaders in a coalition.

However he said he wouldn’t, and also said to Makerfield he wouldn’t re-join so who knows. His words are empty.

Nationalise everything seems to be his 'conditions for growth'.

You like paying extortionate rates for water and sewage that gets dumped in the rivers and sea? I suppose there’s no accounting for taste. Obviously cheaper power and water benefits businesses as well as the rest of us. What do you suggest? There’s the closer relationship to the EU too, that would massively benefit business.

Why all the hyperbole? Of course I don't like paying extortionate rates for anything. Just like I don't vote Reform - the usual go-to on here when someone dares to criticise Labour.

If government had regulated the private companies better, we wouldn't be in this mess. The idea that handing everything back to the state to run when they are famously bad at managing large organisations and infrastructure projects is lunacy. We should encourage mixed models of private and state to get the best of both, not pit them against each other in a race to the bottom.

That said, I do think water is an exception because it is a pure monopoly unlike other utilities.

But back to your original point - nationalising industries is not a growth creator. So what else has he got to say on growth?

My response remains the same. You can watch it just like I did.