Wither Manchester ?

[EmmaOfNormandy]

Just finding it odd there hasn't been much (if any) real discussion about the mayoral election in Manchester tomorrow.

Almost seems conspicuous by it's absence.

Anyway, looking at polling, it seems a straight swap: Labour for Labour. What would this mean for Mancunians, and the UK more widely ?

It's not exciting enough now the King of the North has left the building.

I think it doesn't mean much for the UK, to be honest. Andy Burnham was an unusually well-known regional mayor - I wouldn't expect people outside Manchester to be nearly so fussed about the next one.

I expect everything is withering there in the heat wave, like the rest of the country...

But if you mean whither, then I don't think Manchester is going to be changing course and heading into Reform territory any time soon.

There isn't much news to report - the voters seem about to democratically elect the Labour candidate. Vote share will be down, but the polls haven't been close recently. Reform is not expecting a great result.

There's also a lot of other news - mostly from central government - so attention has gone there.

Or maybe it's just not a close election.

Reform has given up in Manchester, despite good gains in the recent local elections. It's also squeaky bum time in the Clacton by-election.

I wonder why Reform has recently become so silent. Dodgy money donations?

Lowest ever turn out tells you everything you need to know...I'm sad about that, but I'm not surprised.

I live in Greater Manchester and voted. We didn't get any candidate flyers from any parties posted through our door or anyone knocking at the door. It has all been very quiet which I find odd.

Lowest turnout since 2017.

Yes 2017 was when this role first started, they didn't have one before that point. From what I've read it was 28% in 2017 and about 25% this time.
So poor that many couldn't be bothered.

No surprises that Reform UK didn't do well regarding supporting their candidate.

They’re in the top two!

Based on what evidence? All parties except Reform and Labour have now been eliminated. It was supposed to be a shoo-in for Labour so what happened to them? Why is there a second count?

Same. Depressingly low turnout. I’m surprised at the low turnout but with the lack of any leaflets or doorknockers perhaps I shouldn’t be

I’ve never heard of ballots having a second preference and because the two front runners are so close they’re now co7nting the second preference votes from people who didn’t vote reform or labour.

why do they not say who got the most votes wins? They can’t surely have an exact same number of votes.

Because nobody got over 50%. An absolute majority is needed so now they are counting 2nd preferences

in the past Andy Burnham got over 60% so the Labour vote is clearly down

To be fair, there was so little news or fanfare about it, I nearly forgot to vote, so a lot of people may have been intending to but just didn’t remember in time!

We got one candidate flyer through the door, from the Green Party candidate, who seemed to think that Gaza has something to do with the mayor of Greater Manchester

I had 5 leaflets from the Greens and nothing from any other party.

It was a rhetorical question in reply to the previous poster who was suggesting Reform had done really badly when there's no evidence that's the case.

The result is pretty decent for Labour.
Since 2024 (when Burnham won) two major things have changed:

1. Green polling has risen significantly, mostly from Labour
2. Burnham is no longer the candidate (obviously)

At the start of the Makerfield by election, Reform had high hopes of potentially winning the Manchester mayoralty, given their local election results. They will put a brave face on a disappointing result for them.

Reform will be disappointed with the result, it's a big drop compared to the locals.

Gaza is a voting issue at all elections now, as Iraq was back in Blair's day.

Sky is reporting that Labour got 45% in the first round way ahead of Reform who were distant 2nd
I assume they add both 1st and 2nd preferences together at this point but it’s all very odd. Especially the fact that they used this system for the first two GM elections (though Burnham won outright so the second round didn’t count) but NOT the last one

I don’t disagree but we were actually involved in the Iraq war. What is going on in Gaza is nothing to do with us, at least not officially

Well done Bev Craig 💯 😁

This is not a new thing - some voters have always factored national foreign policy into voting behaviour at every level. This is the nature of party politics.

All parties take positions on foreign matters, and all voters can base their vote on that if they choose to.