How long do you give Andy Burnham as PM?

[AndyBurnham2L]

Build ‘em up.
Knock ‘em down.

Short honeymoon and then the grumbling will start. It will all be over for him by Christmas.

So, who’s next?

There has also been a drop of 70,000 children in state schools over the same period, despite 33,000 fewer private school pupils who might have moved to the state sector. The reason for this is falling birth rates. I say might because a proportion of those private school pupils will have finished their education. It’s not compelling anyway at roughly 7%.

That is the same information as the FT article

You also got your years wrong

33k from private is surely a bigger proportion than 70k from state.

Falling births is a factor. I agree. To be frank I’d like a full analysis of VAT raised, versus cost to state schools for the extra admissions, as well as all the wider factors. A proper impact analysis. I suspect we will see some further data compiled and presented to the Supreme Court in December.

Labour won't release that analysis! It was enough to get them to give Phillipson her marching orders.

There has been some admissions date released:

VAT on private school fees has not caused pupil exodus, says Bridget Phillipson | School admissions | The Guardian

I was a feckless single mum on tax credits and state educated DD got a perfect set of GCSEs and an Oxford offer (waiting anxiously for A Level results).

That is brilliant, well done to both of you. I hope your DD gets the results she needs ❤️

Thank you! It's very nerve racking. She's hoping to do Law with Law in Europe.

Do let us know. I love a good success story.

I do love it when a feckless single mum manages to pull off a success story. Well done to both of you, you do yourselves and the state sector credit. You must be so proud.

Good luck. Can't believe that's come round again so soon.

Thank you. I'm incredibly proud and her state school teachers have been beyond amazing.

Congratulations. However one swallow does not make a summer.

You sound envious

Ha ha, no. University is such a huge cost now I’m ambivalent about my kids going. Perhaps the degree apprenticeship route. Getting an employer to pay. It depends what they want to do and they are too young to have formed a strong view yet.

I would have thought the cost wouldn't be that much for you? It's a huge sacrifice for me. My income has increased over the years so she will get minimum loan.

Swap the caviar for lentils.

I guess that's what the welfare system is for. I'm a huge advocate for it and I think we can judge a society by how it cares for its most vulnerable. It helped me when I needed it and the state education system has been incredible.

We do have child savings accounts to cover the costs. So they wouldn’t get burdened by large debt. But if they chose to use that money to start a business, or travel, or deposit for a house; that’s up to them.

You're in a great position. That's wonderful.

Thanks. 16 years of savings!!

You are in a very fortunate position which makes your extreme bitterness towards welfare baffling

The safety net will be there for you too in case you need it,

Leaving it at "congratulations" would have been far more gracious.

Plenty of money to pay the VAT then.

Well done you!