How long do you give Andy Burnham as PM?

[AndyBurnham2L]

Build ‘em up.
Knock ‘em down.

Short honeymoon and then the grumbling will start. It will all be over for him by Christmas.

So, who’s next?

That maybe true but Starmer's downfall was all his own choices.

his own choices Well, some of them were, originally:

Lord Sarwar - spoke against Starmer in February
Rayner - made undermining speech about being "bold" in March
Haigh and Migeley - organised rebellion of PLP against welfare reform
Josh Simons - messed up Westminster chances through his think-tank, so resigned to make way for Burnham in Makerfield
Streeting - did he really want to just swap Health for Defence?
John Healey - resigned over principle about Defence spending, surprisingly quiet on that subject now

Again, that is not what I said is it?

I said that Russian interference isn't a conspiracy theory. And you agree with that.

His latest offering smacks of yet another PM/politician who has no idea about the state of schools. Serious recruitment and retention crisis, underfunded and yet he wants schools to now offer technical subjects. Who is going to teach them?? We can’t find teachers for the subjects we have.

I agree the education system needs a complete overall but there has to be a long term achievable plan. You cant keep putting more and more onto schools and teachers expecting to plug the gaps politicians have created in society.

Rant over. Believe it or not, I actually quite like him haha.

There is nothing wrong with the ambition but the subject of NEETs comes up a lot and obviously it does not address this at all. Also, many of us live in areas of very low industrial activity. There was a joke, in the BBC comments, about school courses for American candy, Turkish barbers, nail bars, etc, as this is what many people see of local businesses.

Haha well they’re not far off the reality for my local area. The principle is correct - there are too many children being forced into academic routes that are not right for them. However, the ability to implement it in schools that are running on empty is not realistic.

Acknowledging pubs will save them from closing down?

Labour MPs have reportedly threatened to rebel if Burnham makes any cuts to welfare.

Backbenchers on the party’s Left have warned Mr Burnham against repeating the “failed politics of welfare cuts” and signalled that they would oppose such a move.

It’s so depressing that we will be taxed, taxed, taxed.

If he is bold he could use Tory support for welfare cuts to make up for rebelling MPs.

Yep, or call their bluff with an early GE (he wont, of course).

The student back benchers would soil themselves - they would be out of work given most are unemployable.

As I posted above, earlier:
Haigh and Midgeley - organised rebellion of PLP against welfare reform

Louise Haigh - one of Andy Burnham’s closest allies, will run the Cabinet Office, the department that supports the prime minister and co-ordinates the government’s policies to deliver its agenda

Anneliese Midgeley - one of the key figures in Andy Burnham's leadership campaign, has been promoted to the cabinet in the role of chief whip.
She has only been the MP for Knowsley, not far from Makerfield, since 2024

Their combined experience should be able to handle the PLP - but what is their agenda?

Their agenda is to serve their welfare constituents by buying votes, in an attempt to cement power beyond this parliament. I can see no other logical explanation.

“Who can we tax in order to pay benefits to others?”

I think it was what you said, TBH, since you commented in agreement with a poster who thought foreign interference was behind Starmer’s downfall.

But if you don’t believe that, and your comment just was a random observation about Russian mischief and nothing to do with Starmer/Burnham, I’m happy to agree.

The failure of the attempt to cut benefits was twofold. Firstly it was focussed on disability and sickness benefits, secondly the political management preceding the vote was atrocious with no attempt to persuade the back benches. Burnham is already approaching it from a different angle. The focus now will be on getting the one million young people currently on benefits into work. He also believes in taking people with him not twisting their arms.

It's not just Russia, America is now part of the problem and Israel is known for it. Boris Johnson phone was hacked by the Israeli security services. A senior member of the Israeli security services was interviewed on live television threatening any country that dares to criticise Israel. Mossad has long arms and is known for it's tactics.

We know that Trump has links to the Kremlin, we know this is the most corrupt administration in the white house in American history. So bad is the threat that the mid terms are now very much at risk.

This is the biggest threat to our political independence we have ever had. We have to take the threats seriously and our security services are working very hard because the threats are now everywhere.

Interesting.

Do you therefore believe he will be able to secure back bench support for welfare reform, this time?

Yes.

If you are right, credit to Burnham.

Evidently night and day versus Starmer.

Starmers mistake wasn't policy but delivery and communication

Or do what Boris did and deselect anyone who won't support the change he wanted.

And appealing too much to Reform voters, those were policy choices.

Boris is in the distant past, so I am not hugely interested in him tbh.

Johnson might be in the past, his actions still have consequences. He caused so much damage.

In relation to Russia and foreign interference. They don’t support one side of the other they want chaos and cynicism. They want the public to abandon democratic politics and move to a dictatorship. One of the reasons I’m getting so depressed by the “How long has AB got?” narrative- that’s just what the Russian want.

Well enjoy the discussion, relish the debate and don't feel depressed. Because this is what we have and I'm proud of it ..... and it's just what the Russians don't have.