Restore to hand Burnham victory, leaked poll suggests

[Twiglets1]

The Telegraph are reporting today that a leaked poll of the Greater Manchester constituency put Rupert Lowe’s party at 13 per cent of the vote, sitting 11 percentage points behind Reform UK, which polled at 24 per cent.

Labour was on 35 per cent of the vote, meaning the split on the Right is expected to allow Burnham to return to Westminster.

The leaked poll, which was circulated internally among Labour staffers and published by The i Paper, places support for Restore significantly higher than the two public polls Survation has released during the Makerfield by-election campaign.

Reform sources questioned the authenticity of the latest survey, insisting that it was “disinformation” pushed out by Labour and its activists.

The party said Restore had not polled above 5 per cent of the vote in any of its internal polling.

Meanwhile, a poll by More in Common found less well-off voters without degrees are now more likely to see Reform as “the party of working people” than Labour.

Twenty-six per cent of less wealthy voters who did not go to university said Mr Farage’s party was the party that best represented working people, while 19 per cent said the same about Labour.

Among all Britons, only one third (35 per cent) said Labour was the party of working people, with 18 per cent opting for Reform.

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/06/11/restore-to-hand-burnham-victory-leaked-poll-suggests/

Good.

Splitting the fascist vote was always going to be a good thing. They are too dim to work out that they are shooting themselves in the foot .... bring it on.

I don't think this bye election should be happening at all but if it is, then keeping the far right out is what is needed.

I will say exactly the same as I said prior to the last GE when everyone was praising Starmer and celebrating an imminent Labour government. Be careful what you wish for

Yes it wouldn't be a bad thing for anyone who would prefer Labour to win than Reform, such as myself. Though I would be hoping that Burnham subsequently gets beaten by Starmer in the leadership contest (which would make the whole thing a massive waste of money of course, but still the best outcome in my opinion).

What I see as more worrying in the article is reference to the poll by More in Common which found that less well-off voters without degrees are now more likely to see Reform as “the party of working people” than Labour.

Well the dim, far right fascists probably know that it's a by election. Not bye 🤷‍♀️

What I see as more worrying in the article is reference to the poll by More in Common which found that less well-off voters without degrees are now more likely to see Reform as “the party of working people” than Labour.

Worrying why? It's true, isn't it?

Labour haven't been the party for the workers for a long time now.

Call me cynical, but I feel the Telegraph might be encouraging Restore voters to switch. They are literally giving pointers.

Tories don't even feature. Poor Kemi.

Worrying from my perspective as someone who would prefer to see a more moderate party in charge - like Labour or the Conservatives.
(yes I'm aware neither has performed well in recent years but my personal opinion is that Reform would be even worse).

Edited to add: I don't know if it's true or not. But you seem to think it is so maybe you are part of that group and it is your experience.

You may have a point to some extent.

However the leaked poll was first published by the i Paper.

The Telegraph just picked up the story from them.

Restore and Reform really need to merge.

Wow, so you actually like the shit show that's going on right now? 😬

Fine, get Starmer out, this is painful. Then Burnham can try his hand and see where Labour gets to.

Are you referring to the current Labour government?

I wouldn't go so far as to say they are good, but I definitely think Labour are preferable to Reform.

The Tories don't stand any chance in Makerfield, no. Doubt Kemi is that bothered though since it's only one constituency.

I think it'll mean we're more likely to get a Reform government next, but there we are.

Agree I’m sure she’s watching Starmer and Labour implode over that.

She's probably enjoying it as it is not a battle she is part of.

They really don’t.

Yep.

If Reform lose to Burnham by a margin equal to or less than Restore's vote share, Reform will lurch to the right to ensure a decisive victory at the next general election.

I know, but I was more referring to the big arrow on the chart!

I don't think you have to be a cynic to suspect this. It could just as easily be the other way around if restore voters do switch to reform - different papers would publish figures saying, for example, green voters to hand reform victory.

I think (but not 100% certain) that labour will win it but I would not be confident at all of that if it was a general election. I will never vote reform or restore and one of my biggest worries with them potentially getting a majority at a general election is how inexperienced so many of the new MPs will be. I'm not saying that career politicians are the best way to go but we're either going to end up with tons of ex-tories rebranded as reform (which begs the question why didn't you deal with these issues when under to conservative banner) or people who have no idea what the job entails, have been vetted poorly and roped in quickly to make up the numbers as they will want someone standing in every seat. They will need time to get up to speed with what it involves. A huge influx of inexperienced MPs in one go isn't ideal when their party don't exactly have a lot of current MPs who know the ropes. It'll be a shit show and I predict lots of quick by elections not long afterwards.

Lowe and Farage despise each other, that is why Restore came about in the first place.

Yes, I know, I’ve seen this. But they are both addressing similar issues afaics.

Good tactic. Burnham get to lead Labour, who then lurch to the left, leading to a right-wing victory in the General election.