Restore to hand Burnham victory, leaked poll suggests

[Twiglets1]

The Telegraph are reporting today that a leaked poll of the Greater Manchester constituency put Rupert Lowe’s party at 13 per cent of the vote, sitting 11 percentage points behind Reform UK, which polled at 24 per cent.

Labour was on 35 per cent of the vote, meaning the split on the Right is expected to allow Burnham to return to Westminster.

The leaked poll, which was circulated internally among Labour staffers and published by The i Paper, places support for Restore significantly higher than the two public polls Survation has released during the Makerfield by-election campaign.

Reform sources questioned the authenticity of the latest survey, insisting that it was “disinformation” pushed out by Labour and its activists.

The party said Restore had not polled above 5 per cent of the vote in any of its internal polling.

Meanwhile, a poll by More in Common found less well-off voters without degrees are now more likely to see Reform as “the party of working people” than Labour.

Twenty-six per cent of less wealthy voters who did not go to university said Mr Farage’s party was the party that best represented working people, while 19 per cent said the same about Labour.

Among all Britons, only one third (35 per cent) said Labour was the party of working people, with 18 per cent opting for Reform.

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/06/11/restore-to-hand-burnham-victory-leaked-poll-suggests/

Maybe. But equally if Labour moves left it might win back voters who dislike the current centrist slant.

Who knows, though 🤷‍♀️

Lowe's ego is as big as Farage's. His party is (sadly) growing. I don't think he'd give that up to play second fiddle to Farage again.

Yes it's inevitable.

Reform appeals to the uneducated, hardly news is it. Sadly for them and all of us they are also most likely to be harmed by Reform’s policies, whilst still being surrounded by just as many brown people as before.

True enough.

How many Makerfield Restore voters read the Telegraph?

If Labour moves to the Left they will win back some voters but also alienate others.

The rise of Reform suggests to me there is more of an appetite for right wing politics now but obviously I don’t know what would happen if Labour moved further to the Left. I’m just guessing that it wouldn’t help them to win the next GE.

I’m just guessing that it wouldn’t help them to win the next GE

Right now, I am not sure what would tbh. But three years is a long time in politics.

You love your dreams, don’t you? Nothing is inevitable.

Yes it is. Which is why I’m just observing Labour at the moment and won’t make up my mind whether to vote for them again or not until much closer to the next GE.

I don't think Reform want to win this one. They want Burnham to step down as Mayor and will put someone high profile in to stand there. And they'll win.

Don’t know about that … Reform are putting a lot of resources into trying to win Makerfield from what I’ve read.

It would be a real scoop for them if they could defeat Burnham. And possibly they could have done were it not for Restore.

True. If Restore wasn’t in it it’d be very close. It’s still close but edges towards Burnham.

So much resource that Farage hasn’t gone up there. Not even once.

Yes a lot of resource as you would expect given how important the seat is.

Where’s Farage then?

How do I know? They can put a lot of resources into knocking on doors etc without wheeling him out. He’ll be talking about Makerfield on bigger platforms.

Bigger platforms than Makerfield for the Makerfield by-election?

That sums up his contempt for the electorate everywhere.

It certainly does. He hasn’t held a press conference for seven weeks now either.

Farage has been to Makerfield. Remember the furore over the impromptu cafe visit a few weeks back?

Yes. I’m talking about platforms like national radio or television. People in Makerfield watch & listen to that too.

Farage is not the Makerfield candidate he is the party leader. Though I expect he will be there on polling day.

Jesus, the excuses!

Farrage has blown it somewhat.
He got rid of a lot of the on line Right activists that initially supported him and moved towards the centre and then came all the defections and it started looking like a retirement home for Tories.

I’m surprised if people believe Reform aren’t putting a lot of resources into winning Makerfield.

That would make a convenient excuse to justify losing, if they do.

There’s the mysterious £5 million too.