After a long wait. The Autumn Budget is finally here!!! 💰

[Cosywintervibes]

https://news.sky.com/story/budget-2025-raft-of-tax-hikes-expected-today-as-more-policies-confirmed-13475413

Anyone like to join me in watching the budget today?

Finally, someone that gets this!

40% of impacted families receive disability benefits so will be exempt from the cap.

To be defined as a 'working family' you only need one parent to work 16 hours. If you have lots of kids and this means that the cap won't apply then you can imagine that the effective hourly rate of 'pay' will be astronomical.

The lack of understanding is fueling so much animosity towards people with more than 2 children. In a time where birth rates have dropped and we are becoming a very anti-immigration nation, our future looks bleak.

A google search (so not accurate) reckons there are 145000 houses worth £2m or above in the UK and the post budget PR reckons the average mansion tax scoop of £2500. Even if there were admins costs arising from reevaluations or legal disputes over the results (and there will be), this nest £3,600m only. So, it’ll likely be less. As the admin and survey costs will probably cost over £1000 per property. Has no-one run a back of the envelope calculation of this… it seems to be a rummaging for change in the back of the sofa exercise motivated by pure antipathy towards people in the south who are likely high income earners too?

Yes except back then properties cost 10x less than now., and inflation of housing value is way out of line with salary inflation. For example, my husband's parents bought their London suburbs 3-bed property for £38k back in the 80s. It's now worth over £500k yet in the cheapest area in their town. Most 3 bed semis in the nicer parts of the same town go for £600-800k.

The amount a young graduate would need to save for a decent enough deposit to get on the property ladder (and therefore how long they would need to suspend their life living at home), is not at all comparable to how it was.

I wonder if the chancellor is eyeing up the pay per mile scheme for electric cars as a trial to be rolled for all vehicles next year...

It's awful! I'm dreading the (extra) vitriol towards single mothers now. I have six children on my own... BUT I work, I'm studying a degree, and I already get the child element for all 6 because 4 were born before April 2017 and 2 in a controlling and coercive relationship! So the lift won't make any difference to me, but I'm happy for those it will

What's the definition of poverty?

What I haven’t seen reported / talked about much but is mentioned in the budget documents are the proposals to consult on a simpler replacement for the lifetime ISA in 2026

@AutumnLeavesandKnittedJumpers because they often choose the daft stuff, like when hot food had a tax put on it, that was reported to the ends of the earth. Thatcher milk snatcher now Reeves milkshake snatcher. To try and understand the press motives for reporting, it’s all about sales and clicks. They choose what to report, the press is and always has been morally bankrupt, up there with estate agents, used car salesmen and politicians.

@AutumnLeavesandKnittedJumpers because they often choose the daft stuff, like when hot food had a tax put on it, that was reported to the ends of the earth. Thatcher milk snatcher now Reeves milkshake snatcher. To try and understand the press motives for reporting, it’s all about sales and clicks. They choose what to report, the press is and always has been morally bankrupt, up there with estate agents, used car salesmen and politicians.

Less than 15% of families have more than two dependent children according to the ONS 2024 stats. It doesn’t distinguish blended from non blended families so it isn’t clear where more than two children is a result of combining households (ie how many parents have more than two children).

The intersection of families on UC + disability benefits + >2 children + the precise threshold to see an “astronomical” rise in pay must be tiny, even if its accurate. Percentage of families where there is a disabled member and also >2 children is a lot less than 15% (or it was, I can’t find recent numbers on the ONS site).

As someone pointed out upthread, one important aspect of tax is to encourage people to do what the government would like them to.

Given that immigration is now being rejected by pretty well all parties, the biggest long-term challenge facing the UK right now is the ageing population. You need 2.1 children per woman to maintain a population. In England and Wales this is now 1.41, and in Scotland it's 1.25.

Abolishing the two-child cap may result in some "undeserving" people (or "members of the underclass", or "scounging scum", or "feckless parents", or whatever bile you want to throw at people) getting a bit more money. But it will also mean that a lot of people who have been on the fence about having a third child may now get off that fence, and in the overall scheme of things, that's the single most important thing that the government could have done. Most EU countries give child allowance or tax deductions for three children, and some give more for the third child.

You are bossing it. Congratulations on the six little blessings. I have 4 (twins born last December). I have also been made redundant while on maternity leave so the future is very uncertain. But as a teacher, I see the levels of poverty in my catchment area and it is appalling. Costs us way more in the long run to have so many children living this way.

What do you mean by ‘not many’?

560,000 claimants will benefit from this?!

Single mothers who Have no family and no help who can’t work the hours they ask for you to qualify for the extra money will be penalised and their children will still be living in poverty

Where the flip are all the Dads?! Why should the taxpayer be paying for these men’s children?

Childcare??

It is frustrating. I work hard but that involves getting up at 4am regularly and working after the kids bedtime, me and my partner both work 6 days a week, and have to juggle kids to make it work. I regularly see people doing the school run with both parents and think, wow, wouldn’t that be nice! But also, aren’t you embarrassed?! We have started a small business and both work as hoc (me 0 hours contract at a uni), no cushy public sector pensions. All the stress and all the tax… I don’t think I could work much harder than I am but I’m damn sure others could. Yet it’s the ones who work themselves to the bone that have ‘the broadest shoulders’? If people want it to be fair surely that means how hard you work should be tested! Otherwise people will be upset, and they have every right to feel that way. I am happy to pay tax but it just feels like you are more rewarded by NOT working hard these days. We will never be rich, able to afford public school etc. We are very much middle earners and not salaried so that’s with constant effort and risk. Because of the nature of our work some months are much higher and so NI and student low payments are massive, but there’s nothing I can do about that.

The problem also with minimum wage is it becomes a flat rate for all, because that’s all businesses can afford. So no incentive to progress, I’ve heard this from friends who work on sites (eg machine operators etc).

Just feel disheartened tbh.

A single mother who is trying her best who is affected by the ‘other all benefit cap’ that is still in place who can’t work the hours they ask will not benefit the same way a stay at home mum does with a husband who works. How is that fair? Penalises single parents and there is no help for them

that’s not as simple as you make out, you only ged a certain amount in childcare costs plus some single mums don’t have the massive chunk asked of the upfront. People make it sound so easy

I know someone who doesn't work at all, 2 school age kids. Can still afford to get them a switch each for Christmas though among other things......doesn't add up!

Salaries were also vastly lower (especially for women) and property inflation has not been not universally higher than wage inflation. It is not necessary to live in London to find work, including well paid work where salaries align much better to property prices.

What were your in-laws earning in the 80s? What work opportunities were available to your MiL at a time when restrictions on women’s opportunities were still the norm and many women were excluded from pensions schemes and job security was rendered largely non existent for huge parts of the workforce.

The London extremes are always cited in these discussions but even back in ye golden days young people lived at home to save money or moved to areas which were more affordable. Our young graduates getting on the property ladder quickly and without help from M&D are mostly working at regional offices where prices are lower or commuting further to work (as we did and as our parents did). The London distortion is real but its not nationwide.

I wasn’t suggesting it was easy.

But I don’t think expecting someone, who doesn’t have health conditions, to work the equivalent of about 16 hours a week is unrealistic or unfair.

You can claim up to 85% of childcare costs back on universal credit each month plus you can ask for help with upfront costs if it’s a new job.

The childcare system has major flaws. So many jobs require shift work or unsociable hours when childcare is typically mon-fri 8am-6pm. The average cost per day in my local area is £70 (which is cheap). That coupled with possibly having multiple children, some in school and some in different childcare settings makes it a logistical nightmare for single parents to secure employment, childcare places, and then juggle things like absences from illnesses. Please do not pretend that childcare is the answer. The lack of flexibility in workplaces and childcare options puts substantial burdens on single parent families.