Rachel Reeves can’t win, can she?

[anothervoter]

After days and days of negative press and chatter about income tax going up, complaints on Mumsnet and across the media, today’s reports are that idea might be dropped and now she’s being accused of rattling the markets and making the cost of borrowing increase.

Honestly, genuine question- what can she do?

The bigger picture is that the Govt hide the figures from the OBR.

I understand you re not able to admit you were wrong but its not a good look.

I disagree. Its a highly contentious issue. Its not just me that thinks RR is using this for political cover. (Unsuccessfully). Its obvious to most of the rest of us in the UK. Hence the polls.

There was no reason for the Conservatives to hide anything at all. They were clearly going to lose. Unfortunately RR dealt with the public sector wage claims in a weak manner. The wage increase was part of the "black hole".

Shame. The lie set the scene for the rest of her term as Chancellor. She shouldn't have done it.

Because Tories aren't in government, Labour are! Labour are responsible now for lack of growth now! If we were on a thread talking about Tory chancellors then fine, but we aren't. This is a thread about Reeves.
You really need to stop blaming everyone else and own the damage that Labour have caused, and continue to cause. Because everyone else can see it so it just looks like you are trying to gaslight.

The reality is it doesn't really matter any more. Labour are toast. So they can blame the Conservatives all they like. No one is listening and no one cares.

Amd they achieved that within two years. Remarkable really.

Growth is better than it has been, i'm glad we can agree on that.

You responded, poorly, to my post replying to another pp, who said Lab were doing worse than the previous Govt, its not my fault you failed to grasp this point.

Growth has been some of the best in the G7, why do you think that is?

I don't think they are doing a terrible job, they are imho doing better than the previous Govt and thats what matters.

Everyone? Labour secured 33% of the vote but just 23% of the total electorate, they are down around 20%

They never had much support in the first place, it will be the same whoever wins in 2029. its a real problem with our voting system.

"Growth is better than it has been" 🤣🤣🤣 I clearly need to take whatever you are taking.

I think it is a matter of perspective. We are talking economic growth, this Reeves fangirl must be talking about benefit claimant growth, for which Reeves is doing remarkably well.

I was going to say, the only things which have grown are inflation, benefits bill and unemployment! Clearly I need to be on better medication though.

From the IFS:

https://ifs.org.uk/articles/ps22bn-black-hole-was-obvious-anyone-who-dared-look

Exactly
"Labour, which knew the broad outline of these challenges, but refused to confront them in its manifesto and pre-election statements"

Reeves knew but ignored it.

Or to be on benefits - then you're cushty.

This budget is going to be dreadful. Its a sure thing that the 2 child benefit cap is going to be removed costing billions! Just why?

So in the last 12months of Sunak, we had a recession, we haven't under Labour.

Its quite a simple thing to understand.

As are the G7 growth stats.

You always seem quite an angry poster, i wonder why.

Party pressure.

The reality is that a large degree of the economic pressure came from global inflation, rising energy prices (exacerbated by the war in Ukraine), and the aftermath of the pandemic. Sunak inherited a challenging economic situation and had limited ability to reverse these global forces in the short term.
He did, however, do a decent job towards the end of his tenure (IMO). I do agree though that there was lots about the conservative government that was a car crash!

We’re never all going to agree and every government have different challenges that they are presented with. What’s important is how RR balances the books (because your growth stats aside - there is a massive black hole getting ever bigger) now and puts us back on a firmer footing. Ideally, without taxes the middle classes into oblivion.

@Southernecho

You omitted to say that the 2023 recession was followed by growth before Labour won in July 2024.

From 2015 to Q3 2024, unemployment was declining. However, unemployment has hit its highest level in a decade after Labour made it more expensive for employers to employ people.

I didn't need too, as the pp showed that in his graph, so they gave us a recession but thats ok because we got 0.7% growth later on?

Incidentally, growth was 0.7% in Q2 this year too, 0.4% in Q1, pretty much mirrors Conservative growth but without the recession.

So by your own argument, Reeves has done well.

Employment has risen, doubtless due in part to her NI increases but its also to do with AI.
Everyone accepts it has and will have huge impacts, both positive and negative.

I can agree with a lot of that, though i would add, as Lady Hallet said today, the Pandemic was v badly handled.

However, its a pity that many will never accept Labour also face these challenges, they haven't gone away, plus a whole heap of extra costs such as Defence and Tariffs.

It'll be an intresting budget and i hope she has learned from the debacle that was WFA

I don’t disagree. It’s a challenging geopolitical climate.
Whilst I don’t agree with many of their decisions I think Reeves and Starmer would have been able to do better had they managed to garner more support from the wider party. Not pushing ahead with WFA and changes to welfare has made them look weak and lacking in conviction. The constant scandals haven’t helped either.
Im saying this as someone who is politically homeless right now, though accept my natural persuasion is probably right of centre!

@Southernecho

Incidentally, growth was 0.7% in Q2 this year too, 0.4% in Q1, pretty much mirrors Conservative growth

I thought people voted for Labour to be better than the Conservatives, not the same?

Growth per capita is the lowest in the G7. The figures that the left use are overall growth therefore slightly misleading. Are you doing the same?

And UK inflation is now twice as high as the EU despite tracking it until a year ago.

Thoughts?

Yes, I’m sure all the hospitality outlets are using AI to pull the pints…

Ah so we now move to a different set of figures, because they suit your pov or not.

What was growth per capita like under the last Government? for comparison purposes only, 2022 to 2024, it fell but has risen between 2024 to 2025.

& before you hit me with Labour are in power etc, how can we judge a Govt if you do not allow anything to judge them against?

On AI pulling pints, no of course not but it can do the pubs books, can be used by the brewery for stock and ordering, Pubs have been failing for many years because people have had less money to spend COL crisis and far cheaper booze from super markets, has NI increases helped? no of course not.

My partners company, defence, has halted recruitment in admin because they are unsure of what rolls will be replaced by AI.

Why do we keep talking about the last government? Last time I looked, they’re no longer in charge and no longer responsible for growth.

You said growth was the highest in the G7. I said that was overall growth, not growth per capita which is the figure that matters most.

And I don’t doubt that AI will have an impact on job losses, which is why the employer NICs increase was completely irresponsible.

Because that's always the stock answer "whatabout the Tories/Reform" etc. Always someone else to blame. It comes from the top of Labour every day so not surprising the minions then parrot it out too. It's Deflection 101.