Rachel Reeves can’t win, can she?

[anothervoter]

After days and days of negative press and chatter about income tax going up, complaints on Mumsnet and across the media, today’s reports are that idea might be dropped and now she’s being accused of rattling the markets and making the cost of borrowing increase.

Honestly, genuine question- what can she do?

we want things and we don’t want to pay for them so we will scream and scream and scream and make ourselves sick and then complain there is no one looking after us

she does need to fix the housing market and that means people not making hundreds of thousands simply by owning a house long term

Nope. Feel really sorry for her

Why state “fully funded and fully costed” if it’s a lie.

Of course there will be backlash.

What can she do? Do what always used to happen, say nothing about anything until she gives the budget. No drip feeding, no leaks, nothing.

speculation helps no one

Agree she can't and neither can any party that would be in government in the current circumstances

Which is why they may as well just stick with what they believe will bring longest term stability to the country (whilst trying to not adversely affect the most vulnerable members of our society) and ignore the inevitable complaints that will come about.

I'm a higher rate tax paper and happy to shoulder more tax if it'll help give us a functioning NHS and help improve general UK standard of living.

I also agree that there are a host of inefficiencies to also cut out from public services that need to also be explored further.

There's no magic bullet and this whole situation has come about through parties focusing on short term tactics to stay in power rather than working towards the greater good of the country and the people they represent.

She is an incompetent liar so she has not sympathy from the population.

Not constantly misleading the country would be a good start for the present Chancellor.

She could have a plan and stick to it, rather than making up policy based on reactions from MPs and the public to leaks about random ideas she’s had.

I didn’t like what she was planning but I like the constant u-turning even less. Make a proper plan and stick to it.

I dont think you will get much traction with this thread OP - the subject is being addressed comprehensively on other threads.

What if paying more tax didn't improve the NHS or improve the general standard of living? What if you just paid more tax to maintain our current bloated welfare system and to not accrue any further debt?

This is the situation where we are in. We are raising taxes to stand still at best. There will be no surplus to start paying down the debt and no extra money to invest in anything. If she scraps the two child policy then that will add £3.5 billion each year and compensating the WASPI women will be many more billions. Your tax will be absorbed in all of this madness before it gets anywhere near a hospital or a school.

Reeves can win by being honest and open about the predicament we are in. She needs to make cuts and raise taxes and she needs to communicate with the public why both are necessary. She needs to avoid bending to the left and spending yet more on welfare and ignoring long term investment.

We all need to get real though. We are not as rich as we think we are and we are beholden to the markets. They actually hold more power than any chancellor will unless we can get the debt down.

I agree. There is NO money, it was frittered away by the previous government on Brexit, dodgy PPE contracts and the mismanagement of Covid. Debt repayments used to be low due to interest rates are now sky-high. The government can't make cuts, mainly because there is nothing to cut, but also because they will be rejected by so many of the PLP. Removing the tax anomaly for tax payers earning over £100k would improve productivity (perhaps set the rate of tax at 45% at this level rather than 62%) but I recognise that this would be political suicide and seen as rewarding the wealthy. Reeves and Starmer are truly between a rock and a hard place.

Why try so hard to create a bigger hole?

After lying about fully funded and fully costed the 24 budget whacked £70bn tax and borrowing on the public.

That was a one off, so now they need more and that was a lie too.

You think we got into £2.9 trillion of debt due to a bit of PPE and COVID mismanagement? Do you have any idea how much money that actually is an show long it has taken to build up? The bloated welfare state is the largest reason for this debt. There is plenty to cut. It may be unpalatable to many but it will be a hell of a lot more palatable than an IMF bailout which is where we are currently heading if we can't get a grip.

Certain welfare payments essentially circulate back into the economy or help reduce costs elsewhere (e.g. health issues caused through poverty). I agree with lifting the 2 child benefit cap for instance. I think there's actually more we could be spending on welfare in order to improve productivity overall.

I'd happily pay to even stay where we are, but what I won't stand for is regressing needlessly

You want welfare spending to go up?

Where it makes sense, yes. In some cases it's an investment in enabling people to work or an investment in their longer term health which reduces NHS costs as well as costs on social care and policing.

I find that astonishing to be honest! We spend the same amount of money on servicing our debt as we devoted to our entire education budget. Why would you think this is good situation to be in and want tos stand still? Awful! I think the majority of the population don't agree with you and hopefully the next election will put an end to this farce.

Money circulating back into the economy may have some benefit in terms of economic growth but ultimately the state will receive less back in terms of tax revenue than it spends on the policy. Our debt and interest payments will grow further.

The idea that the removing two child cap policy will lead to less spending in other areas such as health hasn't been proven at all. We know there is a link between deprivation and high health care usage but this very well could be correlation as opposed to causation. For example, we know that there is a link between deprivation and poor educational outcomes but we also know that introducing the cap didn't worsen the outcomes of children impacted. This means that the link was likely to be through correlation as opposed to causation. Its a very expensive and in my view ineffective gamble to make simply lifting the cap and hoping for the best.

That's not what I said and you are handily leaving out Brexit there- those are just a few examples of how the last 14 years have led us to where we are.

The welfare bill is enormous I agree, but you must realise that more than half of it is spent on pensions due to our ageing population. At the same time we offer one of the least generous pensions in the developed world. When Labour tried to cut the fuel allowance- a fairly small cut which I have to say I agreed with, they were forced into a u-turn. Anything more drastic is going to go down like a lead balloon. So what do you suggest we cut?

It's all down to press speculation though! She never said she was going to raise income tax, just didn't rule it out which is clearly sensible given they hadn't yet decided

I think there should be a formal media embargo on reporting budget speculation for a month before any budget. You hear stories financially illiterate people who are for some reason terrified of paying tax suddenly withdrawing their pension because they read in the right wing press that the tax free allowance will be taken away. This is madness and could harm them a lot esp if they are still working and wanting to keep paying into a pension!

NO ONE knows what will be in the budget, and whatever it is there will be short term whining and then things will settle down. The real damage is done by the media.

Well unemployment is up, job vacancies are down, growth is down and taxes have gone up and will go up further - I’d say she can’t win because she doesn’t have any in good ideas and doesn’t listen to expert advice. Policy economists said employer NI was a bad idea and workers would pay in lower wages and job losses and Lo and Behold!

She should make a plan keep it to herself and then announce it at the budget. All the speculation and reversal, the uncertainty and timing it’s all so staged. She can’t win because no matter what even if it’s someone else or another party there’s still the same amount in the pot. It would help if she wasn’t such an outright liar, dangling carrots in front of people.

She and her party could always have been honest about what tax increases they believed were needed, based on all of the figures that they had access to in their professional jobs as HM shadow government.

Of course, they may then not have been elected; but people with integrity would rather lose something with honour rather than gain it through deceit.

It’s Labour kite flying to gauge reaction. Plus the extra press conference.

Very well put